Kentucky Derby odds: Comparing 86 options in Nevada & U.S.
There is nothing like the marriage of separate Kentucky Derby 2025 futures pools meshing pari-mutuels and fixed odds to create some nerdy numbers, especially five months before the race will be run.
First Resort led a parade of 2-year-olds racing Saturday at Churchill Downs by winning the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club. That earned him 10 points toward a run for the roses next spring. That also shortened his fixed odds at Caesars Sportsbook in Nevada from 33-1 to 18-1. Pari-mutuel bettors nationwide were more bearish, though. They made him no shorter than 38-1 in pool 2 of the nationwide Kentucky Derby Future Wager, which closed its four-day run Sunday.
Zipse: Rated by Merit ranks among best juveniles.
Among individual choices, Citizen Bull drifted from 8-1 to 10-1 at Caesars, where he has been the favorite since he won Nov. 1 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. In the KDFW, the Bob Baffert-trained colt closed as the third choice at 16-1.
Barnes, the $3.2 million colt who won his debut Wednesday in Baffert’s return to Churchill Downs, was the 13-1 individual favorite in the KDFW. He also was bet down from 33-1 to 18-1 at Caesars.
Now for the nerdy part. Neither Citizen Bull nor Barnes was the consensus favorite Sunday night. Measured by their best odds available between the two pools, Grade 1 winner East Avenue was showing as the top choice at 15-1 in spite of his blown start that left him to finish ninth last month in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.
As expected, the mutuel field of all colts and geldings other than the 38 individual choices made available across the U.S. closed as the 9-5 favorite in the KDFW. That option is not available at Caesars, which showed 74 individual 2-year-olds on its board.
Ranked by their best odds, these were the Kentucky Derby 2025 futures at both Caesars and in the KDFW for the combined 86 betting options showing Sunday night:
| Kentucky Derby 2025 | Caesars | KDFW | Trainer | Sire |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All other males* | 9-5 | |||
| East Avenue | 12-1 | 15-1 | Brendan Walsh | Medaglia d’Oro |
| Citizen Bull | 10-1 | 16-1 | Bob Baffert | Into Mischief |
| Barnes | 18-1 | 13-1 | Bob Baffert | Into Mischief |
| Gaming | 20-1 | 21-1 | Bob Baffert | Game Winner |
| Chancer McPatrick | 22-1 | 21-1 | Chad Brown | McKinzie |
| Sovereignty | 22-1 | 19-1 | Bill Mott | Into Mischief |
| Bullard | 22-1 | 24-1 | Michael McCarthy | Gun Runner |
| Donut God | 25-1 | Brian Lynch | Into Mischief | |
| Owen Almighty | 25-1 | Brian Lynch | Speightstown | |
| Madaket Road | 28-1 | Bob Baffert | Quality Road | |
| Showcase | 30-1 | Todd Pletcher | Uncle Mo | |
| Authentic Strike | 30-1 | Rodolphe Brisset | Authentic | |
| Iron Man Cal | 30-1 | Phil D’Amato | Collected | |
| Uncle Jim | 25-1 | 30-1 | Brad Cox | City of Light |
| Patch Adams | 33-1 | 22-1 | Brad Cox | Into Mischief |
| Incentive Pay | 35-1 | Chad Brown | Volatile | |
| Sacrosanct | 35-1 | Brad Cox | Honest Mischief | |
| Ferocious | 20-1 | 37-1 | Gustavo Delgado | Flatter |
| Admiral Dennis | 38-1 | Brad Cox | Constitution | |
| First Resort | 18-1 | 38-1 | Eoin Harty | Uncle Mo |
| Jonathan’s Way | 33-1 | 38-1 | Phil Bauer | Vekoma |
| Ecoro Azel | 40-1 | Akira Sugawara | Shancelot | |
| Rated by Merit | 12-1 | 44-1 | Michael Yates | Battalion Runner |
| Governor Sam | 45-1 | George Weaver | Improbable | |
| He’s Not Joking | 45-1 | Josie Carroll | Practical Joke | |
| Kalea Bay | 45-1 | Bob Baffert | Authentic | |
| Disco Time | 47-1 | Brad Cox | Not This Time | |
| McKinzie Street | 50-1 | Tim Yakteen | McKinzie | |
| Praetor | 50-1 | Chad Brown | Into Mischief | |
| Vekoma Rides | 50-1 | John Kimmel | Vekoma | |
| Journalism | 22-1 | 52-1 | Michael McCarthy | Curlin |
| Emerald Bay | 55-1 | Bob Baffert | Nyquist | |
| Handsome Pants | 55-1 | Kenny McPeek | Daredevil | |
| Calling Card | 60-1 | 56-1 | Mike Maker | Complexity |
| David of Athens | 60-1 | Brendan Walsh | Nyquist | |
| Hill Road | 60-1 | 56-1 | Adrian Murray | Quality Road |
| Innovator | 60-1 | D. Wayne Lukas | Authentic | |
| Zulu Kingdom | 60-1 | Chad Brown | Ten Sovereigns | |
| Bold Fortune (g) | 66-1 | George Weaver | Central Banker | |
| Bracket Buster | 66-1 | Vicki Oliver | Vekoma | |
| Spurgeon | 66-1 | Kenny McPeek | Honor A. P. | |
| All fillies* | 69-1 | |||
| Getaway Car | 28-1 | 70-1 | Bob Baffert | Curlin |
| Mo Plex | 70-1 | Jeremiah Englehardt | Complexity | |
| Tux | 70-1 | Bill Mott | Tapit | |
| Uncaged | 60-1 | 71-1 | Todd Pletcher | Curlin |
| Guns Loaded | 72-1 | Jose D’Angelo | Gun Runner | |
| Romanesque | 74-1 | Bob Baffert | Practical Joke | |
| Aviator Gui | 75-1 | Chad Brown | Uncle Mo | |
| Big Much | 75-1 | Norm Casse | Outwork | |
| Tip Top Thomas | 40-1 | 76-1 | Todd Pletcher | Volatile |
| Built | 80-1 | Wayne Catalano | Hard Spun | |
| Dapper Moon | 80-1 | Dallas Stewart | Malibu Moon | |
| Lil Muggs | 80-1 | Greg Foley | Upstart | |
| Big Boat | 85-1 | James DiVito | Nyquist | |
| Dr Ruben M | 85-1 | Doug O’Neill | Vino Rosso | |
| Giocoso | 85-1 | Keith Desormeaux | Not This Time | |
| Hedge (g) | 85-1 | Ben Colebrook | Volatile | |
| Tiztastic | 65-1 | 86-1 | Steve Asmussen | Tiz the Law |
| Mesero | 90-1 | Dale Romans | Not This Time | |
| Shin Believe | 90-1 | Hideyuki Mori | Constitution | |
| Tenacious Leader | 90-1 | Todd Pletcher | Not This Time | |
| Midland Money | 95-1 | Bob Baffert | Shancelot | |
| Render Judgment | 50-1 | 96-1 | Kenny McPeek | Blame |
| Burning Glory | 100-1 | Bill Mott | Into Mischief | |
| Hot Property | 100-1 | 90-1 | Brad Cox | Medaglia d’Oro |
| McKellen | 100-1 | José D’Angelo | McKinzie | |
| Neoequos | 100-1 | Saffie Joseph Jr. | Neolithic | |
| Warheart | 100-1 | Rodolphe Brisset | Omaha Beach | |
| Grayscale | 107-1 | Saffie Joseph Jr. | Frosted | |
| Keewaydin | 50-1 | 107-1 | Chad Brown | Instagrand |
| Optical | 110-1 | Keith Desormeaux | City of Light | |
| Terrapin Station | 110-1 | Dale Romans | Unified | |
| Voilà Magic | 110-1 | Steve Asmussen | Volatile | |
| Sandman | 40-1 | 123-1 | Mark Casse | Tapit |
| Natural Rise | 125-1 | Keizo Ito | Kizuna | |
| Whiskey Shot | 100-1 | 129-1 | Rodolphe Brisset | Gun Runner |
| Filoso | 66-1 | 136-1 | Chad Summers | City of Light |
| Mo Quality | 150-1 | Chris Davis | Mo Town | |
| Magnitude | 168-1 | Steve Asmussen | Not This Time | |
| It’s Hammertime | 175-1 | Gary Capuano | Vekoma | |
| Kinetic Control | 183-1 | Dale Romans | Not This Time | |
| Smoken Wicked | 75-1 | 196-1 | Dallas Stewart | Bobby’s Wicked One |
| Studlydoright | 55-1 | 197-1 | Jerry Robb | Nyquist |
| Volt | 200-1 | Mark Casse | Tapit | |
| *2022 foals, KDFW only | ||||
| g - gelding | ||||
| Dropped: | ||||
| Angelo Buonarroti | Ralph Beckett | Justify | ||
| Corvus | José Jiménez | Vino Rosso | ||
| Major Dax | Jeff Hiles | Classic Empire | ||
| Mentee | Todd Pletcher | City of Light | ||
| Touchy | Wesley Ward | Nyquist |