Kentucky Derby odds: Comparing 86 options in Nevada & U.S.

Photo: Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority & Churchill Downs - edited

There is nothing like the marriage of separate Kentucky Derby 2025 futures pools meshing pari-mutuels and fixed odds to create some nerdy numbers, especially five months before the race will be run.

First Resort led a parade of 2-year-olds racing Saturday at Churchill Downs by winning the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club. That earned him 10 points toward a run for the roses next spring. That also shortened his fixed odds at Caesars Sportsbook in Nevada from 33-1 to 18-1. Pari-mutuel bettors nationwide were more bearish, though. They made him no shorter than 38-1 in pool 2 of the nationwide Kentucky Derby Future Wager, which closed its four-day run Sunday.

Zipse: Rated by Merit ranks among best juveniles.

Among individual choices, Citizen Bull drifted from 8-1 to 10-1 at Caesars, where he has been the favorite since he won Nov. 1 in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. In the KDFW, the Bob Baffert-trained colt closed as the third choice at 16-1.

Barnes, the $3.2 million colt who won his debut Wednesday in Baffert’s return to Churchill Downs, was the 13-1 individual favorite in the KDFW. He also was bet down from 33-1 to 18-1 at Caesars.

Now for the nerdy part. Neither Citizen Bull nor Barnes was the consensus favorite Sunday night. Measured by their best odds available between the two pools, Grade 1 winner East Avenue was showing as the top choice at 15-1 in spite of his blown start that left him to finish ninth last month in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

As expected, the mutuel field of all colts and geldings other than the 38 individual choices made available across the U.S. closed as the 9-5 favorite in the KDFW. That option is not available at Caesars, which showed 74 individual 2-year-olds on its board.

Ranked by their best odds, these were the Kentucky Derby 2025 futures at both Caesars and in the KDFW for the combined 86 betting options showing Sunday night:

  Kentucky Derby 2025CaesarsKDFW Trainer Sire
All other males*     9-5  
East Avenue  12-1  15-1Brendan WalshMedaglia d’Oro
Citizen Bull  10-1  16-1Bob BaffertInto Mischief
Barnes  18-1  13-1Bob BaffertInto Mischief
Gaming  20-1  21-1Bob BaffertGame Winner
Chancer McPatrick  22-1  21-1Chad BrownMcKinzie
Sovereignty  22-1  19-1Bill MottInto Mischief
Bullard  22-1  24-1Michael McCarthyGun Runner
Donut God   25-1Brian LynchInto Mischief
Owen Almighty  25-1 Brian LynchSpeightstown
Madaket Road  28-1 Bob BaffertQuality Road
Showcase  30-1 Todd PletcherUncle Mo
Authentic Strike  30-1 Rodolphe BrissetAuthentic
Iron Man Cal  30-1 Phil D’AmatoCollected
Uncle Jim  25-1  30-1Brad CoxCity of Light
Patch Adams  33-1  22-1Brad CoxInto Mischief
Incentive Pay  35-1 Chad BrownVolatile
Sacrosanct  35-1 Brad CoxHonest Mischief
Ferocious  20-1  37-1Gustavo DelgadoFlatter
Admiral Dennis   38-1Brad CoxConstitution
First Resort  18-1  38-1Eoin HartyUncle Mo
Jonathan’s Way  33-1  38-1Phil BauerVekoma
Ecoro Azel  40-1 Akira SugawaraShancelot
Rated by Merit  12-1  44-1Michael YatesBattalion Runner
Governor Sam  45-1 George WeaverImprobable
He’s Not Joking  45-1 Josie CarrollPractical Joke
Kalea Bay  45-1 Bob BaffertAuthentic
Disco Time   47-1Brad CoxNot This Time
McKinzie Street  50-1 Tim YakteenMcKinzie
Praetor  50-1 Chad BrownInto Mischief
Vekoma Rides  50-1 John KimmelVekoma
Journalism  22-1  52-1Michael McCarthyCurlin
Emerald Bay  55-1 Bob BaffertNyquist
Handsome Pants  55-1 Kenny McPeekDaredevil
Calling Card  60-1  56-1Mike MakerComplexity
David of Athens  60-1 Brendan WalshNyquist
Hill Road  60-1  56-1Adrian MurrayQuality Road
Innovator  60-1 D. Wayne LukasAuthentic
Zulu Kingdom  60-1 Chad BrownTen Sovereigns
Bold Fortune (g)  66-1 George WeaverCentral Banker
Bracket Buster  66-1 Vicki OliverVekoma
Spurgeon  66-1 Kenny McPeekHonor A. P.
All fillies*   69-1  
Getaway Car 28-1  70-1Bob BaffertCurlin
Mo Plex  70-1 Jeremiah EnglehardtComplexity
Tux   70-1Bill MottTapit
Uncaged  60-1  71-1Todd PletcherCurlin
Guns Loaded   72-1Jose D’AngeloGun Runner
Romanesque   74-1Bob BaffertPractical Joke
Aviator Gui  75-1 Chad BrownUncle Mo
Big Much  75-1 Norm CasseOutwork
Tip Top Thomas  40-1  76-1Todd PletcherVolatile
Built  80-1 Wayne CatalanoHard Spun
Dapper Moon  80-1 Dallas StewartMalibu Moon
Lil Muggs  80-1 Greg FoleyUpstart
Big Boat  85-1 James DiVitoNyquist
Dr Ruben M  85-1 Doug O’NeillVino Rosso
Giocoso  85-1 Keith DesormeauxNot This Time
Hedge (g)  85-1 Ben ColebrookVolatile
Tiztastic  65-1  86-1Steve AsmussenTiz the Law
Mesero  90-1 Dale RomansNot This Time
Shin Believe  90-1 Hideyuki MoriConstitution
Tenacious Leader  90-1 Todd PletcherNot This Time
Midland Money  95-1 Bob BaffertShancelot
Render Judgment  50-1  96-1Kenny McPeekBlame
Burning Glory100-1 Bill MottInto Mischief
Hot Property100-1  90-1Brad CoxMedaglia d’Oro
McKellen100-1 José D’AngeloMcKinzie
Neoequos100-1 Saffie Joseph Jr.Neolithic
Warheart100-1 Rodolphe BrissetOmaha Beach
Grayscale 107-1Saffie Joseph Jr.Frosted
Keewaydin  50-1107-1Chad BrownInstagrand
Optical110-1 Keith DesormeauxCity of Light
Terrapin Station110-1 Dale RomansUnified
Voilà Magic110-1 Steve AsmussenVolatile
Sandman  40-1123-1Mark CasseTapit
Natural Rise125-1 Keizo ItoKizuna
Whiskey Shot100-1129-1Rodolphe BrissetGun Runner
Filoso  66-1136-1Chad SummersCity of Light
Mo Quality 150-1Chris DavisMo Town
Magnitude 168-1Steve AsmussenNot This Time
It’s Hammertime175-1 Gary CapuanoVekoma
Kinetic Control 183-1Dale RomansNot This Time
Smoken Wicked  75-1196-1Dallas StewartBobby’s Wicked One
Studlydoright  55-1197-1Jerry RobbNyquist
Volt200-1 Mark CasseTapit
*2022 foals, KDFW only    
g - gelding    
Dropped:    
Angelo Buonarroti  Ralph BeckettJustify
Corvus  José JiménezVino Rosso
Major Dax  Jeff HilesClassic Empire
Mentee  Todd PletcherCity of Light
Touchy  Wesley WardNyquist

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