Kentucky Derby odds: A 3rd choice joins the futures market
While national pari-mutuels were powered down until early next month, another fixed-odds bookmaker in Nevada joined the Kentucky Derby 2025 futures market this week.
For the eighth year in a row, the Westgate Superbook in Las Vegas jumped in with what has become a recent March habit. It posted 49 horses led by 8-1 co-favorites Citizen Bull and Sovereignty.
Ed DeRosa’s latest Kentucky Derby fair odds.
That makes a combined three favorites in the three legal U.S. venues taking early action on the May 3 classic. Three-time graded-stakes winner Citizen Bull shortened from 15-2 to 7-1 by Wednesday morning at Caesars Sportsbook Nevada. Journalism, victorious in two Grade 2 preps for the Derby, closed Sunday as the 5-1 top choice in the national pari-mutuels.
It is not just a difference of opinion that brought Fountain of Youth (G2) winner Sovereignty to the top of another betting board. Liability says a lot. So does the lack of it in the KDFW, in which Churchill Downs assumes no risk taking its 16% takeout to book pari-mutuel bets for up to 54 hours at a time.
Caesars factors in the exposure of taking nearly four months of round-the-clock action on the Derby, complete with ever-changing, conventional wisdom on who commands value. The Westgate assumes similar risk but has far less exposure right now than Caesars simply because it has just opened its futures.
This certainly explains Caldera. The 5-1 third choice for Saturday’s Louisiana Derby (G2) carried the recency of his runner-up finish in the Sunland Derby into his 18-1 closing odds last weekend in the KDFW. He has not been a big attraction all winter in Las Vegas, where his 40-1 odds at Caesars looked like value until the Westgate opened him at 100-1.
For futures players straddling the California-Nevada state line in Primm, Nev., or South Lake Tahoe, Calif., on April 5, having the choices of the final KDFW along with the Caesars and Westgate apps might feel utopian. At least until their tickets are graded when the Kentucky Derby goes official May 3.
This list shows the comparative Kentucky Derby futures odds for the 76 horses listed Wednesday morning at Caesars Sportsbook Nevada, the 49 showing Wednesday at the Westgate and the closing prices for 40 betting choices Sunday in KDFW pool 5. They are in order of their best prices displayed in bold.
| Kentucky Derby | Caesars | Westgate | KDFW | Trainer |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Citizen Bull | 7-1 | 8-1 | 9-1 | Bob Baffert |
| All other 3-yr-olds* | 10-1 | |||
| Journalism | 8-1 | 10-1 | 5-1 | Michael McCarthy |
| Sovereignty | 10-1 | 8-1 | 7-1 | Bill Mott |
| Cornucopian | 12-1 | 16-1 | 15-1 | Bob Baffert |
| Barnes | 12-1 | 20-1 | 15-1 | Bob Baffert |
| Coal Battle | 15-1 | 20-1 | 14-1 | Lonnie Briley |
| Golden Vekoma** | 22-1 | Ahmad bin Harmash | ||
| Sandman | 15-1 | 25-1 | 22-1 | Mark Casse |
| Chancer McPatrick | 28-1 | 30-1 | 29-1 | Chad Brown |
| American Promise | 40-1 | 30-1 | D. Wayne Lukas | |
| Burnham Square (g) | 40-1 | 40-1 | 35-1 | Ian Wilkes |
| East Avenue | 40-1 | 30-1 | 38-1 | Brendan Walsh |
| Hill Road | 40-1 | 40-1 | 36-1 | Chad Brown |
| Owen Almighty | 22-1 | 20-1 | 46-1 | Brian Lynch |
| Cyclone State | 50-1 | Chad Summers | ||
| Disco Time | 50-1 | Brad Cox | ||
| Flood Zone | 50-1 | 50-1 | 39-1 | Brad Cox |
| John Hancock | 50-1 | 50-1 | 29-1 | Brad Cox |
| Romanesque | 50-1 | Bob Baffert | ||
| Captain Cook | 35-1 | 40-1 | 51-1 | Rick Dutrow |
| Madaket Road | 33-1 | 40-1 | 54-1 | Bob Baffert |
| Built | 50-1 | 30-1 | 56-1 | Wayne Catalano |
| Praetor | 55-1 | 57-1 | Chad Brown | |
| Gaming | 50-1 | 60-1 | Bob Baffert | |
| Patch Adams | 45-1 | 60-1 | Brad Cox | |
| Tappan Street | 40-1 | 30-1 | 64-1 | Brad Cox |
| River Thames | 22-1 | 25-1 | 65-1 | Todd Pletcher |
| Gunmetal | 66-1 | Brad Cox | ||
| Baeza | 35-1 | 40-1 | 68-1 | John Shirreffs |
| Poster | 65-1 | 60-1 | 69-1 | Eoin Harty |
| Authentic Strike | 75-1 | Rodolphe Brisset | ||
| Promised Gene (f) | 75-1 | Yuki Uehara | ||
| Bullard | 80-1 | 80-1 | Michael McCarthy | |
| Clock Tower (g) | 80-1 | Wesley Ward | ||
| Disruptor | 50-1 | 80-1 | 39-1 | Todd Pletcher |
| Grande | 50-1 | 80-1 | 66-1 | Todd Pletcher |
| Jonathan's Way | 75-1 | 80-1 | Phil Bauer | |
| Tip Top Thomas | 80-1 | Todd Pletcher | ||
| Aviator Gui | 85-1 | Chad Brown | ||
| Burning Glory | 85-1 | Bill Mott | ||
| Charlie's to Blame | 85-1 | Peter Eurton | ||
| Chunk of Gold | 55-1 | 80-1 | 85-1 | Ethan West |
| Getaway Car | 85-1 | 40-1 | 68-1 | Bob Baffert |
| Render Judgment | 85-1 | Kenny McPeek | ||
| Shin Believe | 85-1 | Hideyuki Mori | ||
| Publisher | 90-1 | 80-1 | Steve Asmussen | |
| Luxor Café | 50-1 | 98-1 | Noriyuki Hori | |
| Admiral Dennis | 65-1 | 100-1 | Brad Cox | |
| Baby Max | 85-1 | 100-1 | Kelsey Danner | |
| Bestfriend Rocket | 100-1 | D. Wayne Lukas | ||
| Caldera | 40-1 | 100-1 | 18-1 | D. Wayne Lukas |
| Final Gambit | 100-1 | Brad Cox | ||
| Grayscale | 100-1 | Saffie Joseph Jr. | ||
| Hypnus | 70-1 | 100-1 | Kenny McPeek | |
| Maximum Promise | 100-1 | Kenny McPeek | ||
| Shea Brennan | 100-1 | Phil D'Amato | ||
| Smoken Wicked | 100-1 | Dallas Stewart | ||
| Statesman | 95-1 | 100-1 | Shug McGaughey | |
| Studlydoright | 100-1 | Jerry Robb | ||
| Vassimo | 85-1 | 100-1 | Todd Pletcher | |
| Rodríguez | 50-1 | 60-1 | 107-1 | Bob Baffert |
| Surfside Moon | 110-1 | Chuckie Lawrence | ||
| Tiztastic | 110-1 | 100-1 | 119-1 | Steve Asmussen |
| Clever Again | 95-1 | 125-1 | Steve Asmussen | |
| Rapture | 127-1 | Brad Cox | ||
| California Burrito | 85-1 | 100-1 | 130-1 | Tommy Drury |
| Speed King | 100-1 | 100-1 | 131-1 | Ron Moquett |
| Bold Fortune (g) | 150-1 | George Weaver | ||
| Giocoso | 150-1 | Keith Desormeaux | ||
| Kale's Angel | 150-1 | Peter Miller | ||
| Omaha Omaha | 90-1 | 150-1 | Michael Gorham | |
| Sand Devil | 66-1 | 50-1 | 190-1 | Linda Rice |
| Furio | 200-1 | Joe Sharp | ||
| Instant Replay | 200-1 | 100-1 | Brad Cox | |
| Myriad Love | 200-1 | Koichi Shintani | ||
| Yinzer | 200-1 | 63-1 | Steve Asmussen | |
| Garamond | 60-1 | 266-1 | Chad Brown | |
| Donut God | 300-1 | Brian Lynch | ||
| Touchy | 300-1 | Wesley Ward | ||
| Neoequos | 90-1 | 100-1 | 404-1 | Saffie Joseph Jr. |
| Gosger | 100-1 | 413-1 | Brendan Walsh | |
| *KDFW only | ||||
| **Off the trail | ||||
| f - filly | ||||
| g - gelding |