Kentucky Derby odds: AI line tabs Brant as new favorite
The favorite is off the Kentucky Derby 2026 trail; long live the favorite.
Things move fast in Triple Crown land, and it was not long after trainer Todd Pletcher said champion Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Ted Noffey would miss the Kentucky Derby with bruising that thoughts turned to who will be the public choice to wear the roses May 2 at Churchill Downs.
Brant suffered his lone career defeat in start number three when finishing third behind Ted Noffey and Mr. A.P. in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. He previously had won his career debut and the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity at odds on but was no match for the eventual champion in the Breeders' Cup. Granted, that was off 7 1/2 weeks rest, and there is every reason to think the Gun Runner colt trained by Bob Baffert can move forward as a 3-year-old.
Indeed, he has started preparation toward a 3-year-old debut with a pair of workouts at Santa Anita this month, including a four-furlong drill in 48.80 seconds Thursday.
Using Horse Racing Nation's proprietary artificial intelligence algorithms, I entered the top 20 horses by Derby points into the machine to generate a projected morning line for a 1 1/4-mile dirt race. Of course, at this stage, the odds are jockey- and post-agnostic. This is the same AI that helps generate the morning lines for Santa Anita, Laurel Park, Colonial Downs and Louisiana Downs.
Limiting the list to the 20 leaders on the points board does leave off several key contenders, such as Chief Wellington. Many of these horses would be higher prices against what the public has already has deemed allegedly better horses via the Kentucky Derby Future Wager.
Still, this exercise shows a clear concentration of top talent on the leaderboard, led by Brant and including Lecomte Stakes (G3) winner Golden Tempo, Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) winner Litmus Test, Remsen (G2) winner Paladin, Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) winner Further Ado, and Champagne (G1) winner Napoleon Solo. Those six horses are 30% of the list but 75% of the projected pool.
The Holy Bull Stakes (G3) on Saturday at Gulfstream Park is sure to shake things up, so check back Monday for updated projected odds.