Kentucky Derby fair odds: These are the long shots worth a bet

Knock on the material of your choice, there have been no defections among the top contenders for this year's Kentucky Derby since the points races concluded with Encino winning the Lexington Stakes.

Fierceness is still my most likely winner by far with Sierra Leone, Forever Young, Just a Touch and Catching Freedom making up the next tier of likely winners of America's most famous horse race.

As noted before, this offers the potential for opportunity on likely favorite Fierceness, as much of the betting discussion so far has centered around "Fierceness or Sierra Leone" and I have a clear opinion there, at least in the win spot.

So what of some of the long shots beyond the top five contenders? Of the 15 others, I have some horses that I am not interested in for any reason in any position. Those are T O Password, West Saratoga, Dornoch and Track Phantom.

That leaves 11 others to figure out how they fit on my Derby wagering palette. Of the group, I would rank Honor Marie as my top choice.

Already with a win at Churchill Downs thanks to his Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club score in November, Honor Marie returned at 3 with a disappointing fifth-place finish in the Risen Star (G2). But the Honor Code colt had some out-of-his-control issues training up to that race, and considering the improvement when second to Catching Freedom in the Louisiana Derby (G2), I'm inclined to believe that effort was more indicative of the real Honor Marie.

Given we know the aforementioned five top contenders are going to be the top choices, and other horses such as Santa Anita Derby (G1) winner Stronghold and Wood Memorial Stakes (G2) winner Resilience have to take money (people like 1s), I think 20-1 is a reasonable albeit optimistic expectation on Honor Marie. 

I do not see him as any lower than eighth choice, and in a 20-horse field that starts to get into the ordinal rankings of a difference maker.