Kentucky Derby fair odds: Which contender gets ignored?

The top six contenders for Kentucky Derby 2026 based on my fair odds have about a 9-5 chance of winning the world's most famous horse race at Churchill Downs on May 2.

The good news is that in the 40-entry Kentucky Derby Future Wager, 39 individual entries plus a field of all others, it is very unlikely that all six of those horses will be underlaid against my fair-odds line. The better news is that I am almost certain there will at least be one opportunity: Chip Honcho.

Chip Honcho finished second to Paladin in the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes, and Paladin is my most likely winner of the Kentucky Derby right now, so no shame in the placing. Even better, Chip Honcho's morning line in pool 5 of the Derby Future Wager is 50-1, so my 25-1 fair odds threshold looks good to be met. 

I have Paladin at 11-1, so despite being the most likely winner in my mind, he is a tough wager against the 5-1 morning line or anything close to it.

Nearly is my most likely underlay among my top six. The Holy Bull (G3) seems like so long ago and the also-rans from there don't excite me as a short price. He can improve, but he's sure to be an underlay in this pool.

The other three in my top six are Chief Wallabee, Renegade and The Puma. I expect The Puma to get bet least of that trio and maybe be fifth choice among my six top contenders, so I will monitor his price as well.

This is also the time of year when handicappers can decide on mulligans – Brant, for example. Knowing the Churchill Downs team does its homework on who to include, his inclusion here means Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert is likely to press forward with him. There was a time Brant was my top pick in this race. Does that make 50-1 palatable now? Yes.

The Japan and Dubai-based horses are wild cards in any year but especially so this year with potential travel restrictions, etc., so I've lined them a little higher than I otherwise might.