Ky. Derby fair odds: West Coast dominates DeRosa rankings

None of the top three finishers in either of this past weekend's prep races for Kentucky Derby 2025 were in my top 24 before this weekend. Whether that was an oversight by me remains to be seen, but I am certainly way more interested in the top performers from the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby than I am the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3).

Tiztastic upset the Louisiana Derby and, to use an overused cliche, might be getting good at the right time. The improvement is clear, and distance should not be much of an issue given he just won at 1 3/16 miles. But the concern with him, as it is with all of these horses, is I just don't see how he improves to a point he can compete with Journalism or the top Bob Baffert trainees.

As a bettor who believes in the West Coast hype, the best thing that can happen is performances such as Tiztastic's help attract money away from better horses. Unfortunately, I do not see that happening with the Jeff Ruby Steaks, a race that feel apart with Final Gambit sweeping the field and drawing off.

Flying Mohawk and Maximum Promise completed the trifecta and are fine, but I'd actually be more interested in fourth-place finisher and beaten favorite Poster, who appeared to drop out of it before re-rallying for a slice. California Burrito took a bad step when he looked poised to draw off and is worth keeping an eye on.

There are two Kentucky Derby preps this coming Saturday with the Florida Derby (G1) at Gulfstream Park and Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn. I'd be shocked if the trifectas of either race do not include any of my top 24 horses let alone both, given the presences of Sovereignty in the Florida Derby and Cornucopian in the Arkansas Derby.

Cornucopian is one of four Baffert trainees in my top 12. Another, Madaket Road, goes against Sovereignty in the Florida Derby. Citizen Bull and Barnes are expected for the last round of preps as is Journalism, who handed Barnes his first defeat in the San Felipe Stakes (G2) last out.