Kentucky Derby 2025 fair odds: Value focus narrows on trio

Now that we're just 16 days away until Kentucky Derby 2025 and nine until the draw, my fair odds are narrowed to the 20 horses who would be in the starting gate if the race were today.

That leaves a clear picture in my mind of the three most likely value horses based on my fair-odds line.

Journalism. It feels weak to pick the chalk, but there is every chance that he will be around my fair odds. For better or worse, Umberto Respoli up for Michael McCarthy just doesn't move the odds dial like other connections do.

Sovereignty. Of the main contenders, I think this one has the most upside in terms of likeliness of running a lifetime best. He has moved forward as a 3-year-old off his stakes-winning 2-year-old form, and racing Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott will have him ready to move forward again May 3 at Churchill Downs.

Rodriguez. I would love to know what the plans were in his previous two stakes races, considering he never contested for the lead but managed to then win the Wood Memorial (G2) gate-to-wire last out. He does not need that trip in the Derby and likely would not run his best trying to get it against the likes of East Avenue and American Promise.

These three contenders also allow me to have the race covered from a pace standpoint. Rodriguez will be forward, Journalism will be mid-pack, and Sovereignty will be closing. Pace probably matters most for Rodriguez, as the rail or the far outside could be compromising to his chances.

Looking at the Brisnet pace ratings is interesting because Journalism has the numbers of a closer given his late-pace ratings but is capable of making a sustained run earlier in the race. I see that as a tactical advantage versus Rodriguez and Sovereignty and their more clearly defined styles.

But again, just because all that points to Journalism being the most likely winner does not mean he will be the best bet. There are definitely scenarios where the prices on Sovereignty and-or Rodriguez are more attractive than on Journalism. If Journalism is a palatable price, then he is a single, as I will not want to double (or more) my key tickets. But if he takes money and others such as, say, Sandman and Tappan Street do as well, then I could see wanting to lean on Sovereignty and Rodriguez.

Of course, there's plenty of time to go plus horses still hoping to get in, including Baeza. I will not spend much digital ink on him, though, until and unless he actually is in the body.