Kentucky Derby fair odds: Todd Pletcher is 3-2 to wear roses

One of the fun things sports betting has brought to the wagering landscape is different ways of expressing opinions about the outcome of an event.

For example, instead of betting a horse to win, what about betting a trainer?

That was the question Horse Racing Nation editor Ron Flatter asked prominent bookmakers, and I was disappointed to read that they are as sharp as I think I am.

To wit, Johnny Avello said he would open Todd Pletcher at plus 145 to saddle the 2023 Kentucky Derby winner. That is 29-20 odds in horse racing parlance and represents a 40.82 percent chance.

This is nearly in line with my fair odds of 39.7 percent based on 7-2 on Forte, 6-1 on Tapit Trice, and 30-1 on Kingsbarns. It is that opinion of Kingsbarns that likely is preventing me from finding value in Avello's line because I certainly think less of his chances than most people, including Churchill Downs handicapper Joe Kristufek, who has the Louisiana Derby (G2) winner No. 1 on his Derby top 10.

Using fair odds is a fun way to come up with other prop bets, too. For example, given that I have each of the Japanese horses at higher than 15-1 (Santa Anita Derby runner-up Mandarin Hero would have fair odds of 15- or 20-1 if he gets in), then the "no" side of the prop is likely intriguing to me given Derma Sotogake alone is under 10-1.

One prop I'd love to see priced is "winner born in Kentucky," on which I think I'd be on the "yes" side (or winner not born in Kentucky and "no"). The non-Kentucky-bred runners are Angel of Empire, Derma Sotogake, Wild On Ice, Continuar and Mandarin Hero, and other than Mandarin Hero, who is not even in the field yet, I view the others as underlays.