Kentucky Derby fair odds: Ranking the current top 20

The Kentucky Derby 2026 leaderboard is sure to get a shakeup after this weekend's trio of 50-points-to-the-winner races, but the current top 20 is a competitive collection of established 2-year-old form and up-and-coming 3-year-olds.

The Grade 2 Remsen Stakes in December is center stage currently, with Paladin backing up a win there with a Risen Star (G2) victory to vault to points leader and race favorite. The horse he beat that day, Renegade, returned as a 3-year-old to win the Sam F. Davis Stakes.

I have them as the most likely Derby winners among the top 20 on the leaderboard. The fair odds attached are as if only those 20 horses were competing against each other. For that reason, horses such as Chip Honcho and Universe are lined a little lower since they have more points and thus their path to the Derby has lower hurdles to clear. And horses such as Grittiness and Carson Street are far less likely winners than maiden winners Chief Wallabee and Iron Honor, who are not on this this week but might be next week depending on how they do in the Fountain of Youth (G2) and Gotham Stakes (G3), respectively.

The three horses I like best behind the Remsen duo are Nearly, who won the Holy Bull (G3), and Napoleon Solo and Further Ado, unraced since closing out their 2-year-old seasons with stakes wins. Napoleon Solo takes on Chief Wallabee on Saturday at Gulfstream Park.

The other Kentucky Derby points race this weekend in America is the Rebel Stakes (G2) on Sunday at Oaklawn. The one-two finishers from the Southwest (G3), Silent Tactic and Soldier N Diplomat, take on Holy Bull runner-up Bravaro and Breeders' Futurity (G1) runner-up and 8-5 morning-line favorite Blackout Time. Strategic Risk, the winner of the Smarty Jones who finished 10th in the Southwest, also is in the mix.