Kentucky Derby fair odds: Play outside with Brad Cox

In all the discussion of the draw for Kentucky Derby 2026, the most interesting dichotomy to me is that Further Ado drew great into post 18 and Fulleffort did not in post 20.

Even Brad Cox, who trains both colts, said similar. Is 20 the best post? Of course not. Is it remotely dealbreaker on a horse who will be 20-1 off what I consider to be one of the best prep performances o the year? Also no.

I loved Stark Contrast in the Grade 3 Jeff Ruby, and most years this would have been a winning race. But Fulleffort made sure this wasn't "most years." He inhaled Stark Contrast and went on with it while Stark Contrast stayed in for second. Stark Contrast, by the way, is also my pick for race 9, the American Turf (G1) on the Derby undercard.

The Ruby was a big move forward for Fulleffort. If he responds to dirt the same way he did to added distance, then he is a major player here at what I'm certain will be a fair price against my fair odds.

Further Ado is the most likely winner of this race. When it comes to handicapping Grade 1 races, one of the questions I ask is, "What horse wins if they all run back to their best races?" For this year's Kentucky Derby my answer to that question is unquestionably Further Ado.

There is concern that Further Ado is just a horse for course, given that his two biggest wins came at Keeneland. But my read is that's just the circumstance of the racing calendar. Yes, he regressed when winning the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) off his big maiden win, but going from maiden to stakes in a third career start is a big ask. The progression into the Derby has been planned to the minute by Cox, with the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) being a solid 3-year-old debut before the Blue Grass (G1) blitz seen above.

The other two horses expected to take money, Renegade and Commandment, are likely underlays but not dastardly so. I'm not going to play the three chalks together, but I won't have any problems with Renegade and-or Commandment running well if Fulleffort does as well.

The Santa Anita Derby (G1) is the race I'm willing to fade. The buzz has been building on both So Happy and Potente. Neither is impossible, and both are solid mid-tier contenders. But they're starting to get into the territory of maybe taking as much money as Emerging Market, whom I prefer.

Wagering-wise, I plan to bet Fulleffort to win and key with the other logicals. I will press further with Further Ado.