Ky. Derby fair odds: Journalism offers most value in win pool

By now we've analyzed the Kentucky Derby entrants to the point that nothing I tell you about Journalism or Chunk of Gold or any of the other 17 entrants expected to start on Saturday at Churchill Downs is going to be new.

Thankfully, we do have some new information in the form of actual wagering on this race, and an interesting dichotomy has materialized: With $5.6 million in the win pool, Journalism is the 7-2 favorite. However, in the Oaks-Derby double, which attracted about $3.3 million in wagers, Journalism is playing more in the 5-2 range. 

I could see Journalism down to 3-1, but the action on others suggests that is the floor in the win pool. On the other hand, if you're a fan (for some reason) of Citizen Bull, American Promise, Luxor Cafe or Render Judgment then you almost have to go exotic shopping because they will be much higher in those pools.

I am sticking with Chunk of Gold as my long shot key and with Baeza drawing in will make him a secondary use alongside Chunk of Gold.

This is as narrow as I can ever remember being in the Kentucky Derby. Journalism is my lone "A" with Chunk of Gold and Baeza the "B" selections. For exotic wagering purposes I will have a de facto "C" column that includes horses that can be in the picture with either Chunk of Gold or Baeza.

Those horses are Luxor Cafe, Burnham Square, Flying Mohawk, and Sandman. The others will just have to beat me.