Kentucky Derby fair odds: Jeff Ruby Steaks exacta impresses

Stop me if you've heard this one before, but I liked this year's Jeff Ruby Steaks as a Kentucky Derby prep.

Admittedly, this has not worked out for me recently, but there are reasons to trust the process.

I liked Tiz the Bomb in 2022, and although he was not competitive, the Jeff Ruby Steaks did produce long-shot winner Rich Strike that year. Two Phil's was not my top pick in 2023, but he was a heavy use for me as runner-up who went on to win the Grade 3 Ohio Derby before retiring.

All that is to say, I think I have a solid read on when this can be a productive race, and I'm getting those same vibes with Fulleffort and Stark Contrast, the first- and second-place finishers, respectively, in this year's race at Turfway Park.

The connections of Stark Contrast won the Ruby in 2024 with Endlessly, and it is not clear whether they will target the Kentucky Derby or the American Turf, a Grade 1 race for 3-year-olds on Derby day, with their Jeff Ruby Steaks runner-up.

Trainer Brad Cox has confirmed Fulleffort for the Kentucky Derby, and the Liam's Map colt is already at Churchill Downs to train for the May 2 race.

Fulleffort earned a great figure in winning the Jeff Ruby, and the eye test backs it up. Stark Contrast looked gone, but Fulleffort under Irad Ortiz Jr. collared him easily before drawing off to a 2 1/2-length win; it was 3 1/2 lengths back to Medici in third. Assuming Ortiz remains with Renegade with a good Arkansas Derby (G1) performance, Cox will need a new rider for Fulleffort, and that might help his price on the first Saturday in May.

Obviously a lot of this pricing hinges on what happens this weekend with the ultra deep Florida Derby (G1) and Arkansas Derby on offer. The aforementioned Renegade is in action at Oaklawn, and top contenders Chief Wallabee, Commandment, Nearly and The Puma square off at Gulfstream Park. From a Derby standpoint, I like Chief Wallabee best of all, but from a future wager standpoint, right now Fulleffort is unquestionably my value play at 28-1 at Caesars.