Kentucky Derby fair odds: Could the pass line be a winner?

When Honor Marie drew post 7 and Forever Young post 11 for Kentucky Derby 2024, my mind went not to Churchill Downs but to the craps table.

Seven and 11 are the two dice rolls that "pay the pass line" on the come-out roll in craps, and I'll certainly be looking to get paid Saturay if either wins the run for the roses.

Forever Young is the top pick based on me being the most excited about his chances relative to his price. I expect he will be between the third and fifth choice, but he is comfortably the third choice on my fair-odds line.

Of course, I get the concerns regarding this UAE Derby winner shipping from Dubai after a trip to Saudi Arabia after departing his native Japan. UAE Derby starters not only are 0-for-19 in the Kentucky Derby, but they never have even been a part of the superfecta. They never have been fast as Forever Young, though, and if trainer Yoshito Yahagi can win the Breeders' Cup Distaff with Marche Lorraine, then he can win this with an undefeated multiple stakes winner.

Having the winner on top feeds the go, but it does not necessarily feed the bankroll, and I'd much rather win money than win your hearts.

Honor Marie is our chance at a score. I know he's sort of viewed as the wise-guy horse and people think he will be bet lower than his 20-1 morning line. But considering he is still 24- and 30-1 at two Las Vegas books, I don't see how he's anywhere near my fair odds line.

No. 17 Fierceness is the most likely winner, and I will aggressively use him with my top pick and long shot while willing to let him beat me if it's an otherwise-overly chalky result. For example, a 17-2-4 trifecta, while hardly a surprise, is going to beat me.

The above Xweet is how I will use each of the 20 starters in concert with each other. How I weight who's on top likely will depend on whether I'm live to any pick N wagers, but I expect to press all wagers with a big 7, 11, 17 box.