Ky. Derby fair odds: Forte scratch makes Tapit Trice the play

I had given Forte a 22.2 percent chance of winning the Kentucky Derby. With news of his scratch Saturday morning that percentage went to zero, thus increasing the chances of everyone else winning the world's most famous horse race.

The good news as a Tapit Trice backer is I think bettors will send too much of the money that would have gone on Forte elsewhere. Before Forte scratched, Tapit Trice was a lukewarm overlay-at best-given my 5-1 fair odds and a similar pari-mutuel price looming.

Now that my fair odds are 5-2 (28 percent of winning), he is sure to be a strong play in all pools for me, as it looks as if he will be in the 4-1 range and vie for favoritism with Angel of Empire.

Mandarin Hero also looks to offer value, as I do not much Forte money will find its way to the outsiders. I think Angel of Empire gets most of it followed by Tapit Trice, Derma Sotogake and Two Phil's. Of those, I like Two Phil's best after Tapit Trice.

Disarm is still the horse I'm most looking forward to keying underneath. But from a win perspective, it just does not getting any better than a 5-2 chance going off at 4-1.

Another angle that bears watching is what James "Mattress Mack" McIngvale does with his betting. The famous Texas-based mattress impresario plays the favorite in the Kentucky Derby to hedge against a promotion at his furniture store.

If his money goes on Angel of Empire, then Tapit Trice will offer fantastic value. If he decides to make Tapit Trice the favorite then the win pool is less interesting.

But Mack is likely to be the one who decides who's favorite.