Kentucky Derby fair odds: Fla. Derby, Wood are value preps

With the road to Kentucky Derby 2025 complete, for all intents and purposes, bettors now have a much better idea of the likely field to start their handicapping in earnest.

These fair odds are for the top 21 points earners plus the one automatic bid for the Japan route and two for the Europe-Mideast series. Twenty horses can have a spot in the starting gate at Churchill Downs on May 3.

I am very much a speed-is-class handicapper, so I don't typically get too wound up over what races each horse participated in before the final round of preps. But I do think the fastest Derby preps make the best Derby horses, which is why I will point out that the horse I'm most excited about in this year's Derby is not even in the field yet.

Baeza ran well to be second behind Derby favorite Journalism in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. That was only his fourth career start and his stakes debut. But his dam, the Big Brown mare Puca, already has produced Derby winner Mage, himself a runner-up in his final prep, and Belmont Stakes winner Dornoch, who was more seasoned before the Triple Crown season. So there is reason to be excited about this one's development. Baeza was as high as 50-1 at the Westgate in Las Vegas this week, and I absolutely would bet him at that price if I lived in Nevada.

So if I love Baeza, then I have to at least like Journalism, right? Well, yeah, sort of. But I definitely have concern about how short he will go in the actual Derby wagering. He was 5-1 in Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool 6, but that pool closed right before he won the Santa Anita Derby. Now he is 3-1 or 7-2 in Vegas, and it is hard for me to get excited about that short of a price on a colt who Ragozin Sheets says took a big step backward after a lifetime best.

The other races I'm keyed in on are the Florida Derby (G1) and Wood Memorial (G2).

The former saw Tappan Street getting the jump on Sovereignty, but I have no issue with Sovereignty's loss there. Burnham Square rebounded with a Blue Grass (G1) win after losing to Sovereignty in the Fountain of Youth (G2). The Wood featured Rodriguez strutting his stuff on the front end with Grande an impressive second, which is a similar profile to Baeza. Rodriguez likely would have more company up front in the Derby, but he had been off the pace in his previous two efforts. If Hall of Fame trainer and six-time Kentucky Derby winner Bob Baffert can get Rodriguez to show some punch tracking, then he is dangerous.