Ky. Derby fair odds: 'Emerging' threat in Louisiana Derby?

With 100 points to the winners, both the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby and the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) on Saturday figure to shake up the points leaderboard. But will they affect who the legit Kentucky Derby contenders are?

Of the three prep races the last two weeks, only the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) made an impression on me, with both winner The Puma and runner-up Further Ado maintaining relative low odds on my fair odds of the top 20 3-year-olds by points. Neither Potente and Robusta in the San Felipe Stakes (G2) nor Incredibolt and Grittiness in the Virginia Derby inspired me. 

I am keeping an open mind to this week's races in part because I have expected a breakthrough "wow" performance in a prep all year, and I'm still waiting. That's not to say horses such as Paladin and Renegade were not impressive winning the Risen Star (G2) and Sam F. Davis Stakes, respectively, but they were somewhat known commodities after their Remsen Stakes (G2).

Based on the Kentucky Derby Future Wager that just closed, the Louisiana Derby is most likely to provide that "wow" factor since it has three of the top 20 choices among its entries. These include Emerging Market, the top choice among that trio who somehow is 6-1 on the morning line for the race. He will not be 6-1, but he is the horse with the most upside considering he has only a maiden win to date.

Speaking of the recently concluded future wager, Paladin was a narrow choice over Chief Wallabee. At this stage, I have the gap a bit wider because Chief Wallabee likely needs more points to get in, and Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott is no cinch to go on with it after what will be the colt's third career start.

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