Kentucky Derby fair odds: DeRosa sees future wager value

Noted stakes winners Ted Noffey, Brant, Further Ado and Paladin understandably are the shortest prices on Mike Battaglia's morning line for pool 3 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager this weekend, but none of those options are likely to offer any value when the pool closes at 6 p.m. EST on Sunday.

Ted Noffey is the undefeated winner of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile and presumptive champion 2-year-old male. He is the 6-1 top choice among the 39 individually listed 3-year-olds, with No. 40 "all others" the 4-1 favorite. Ted Noffey was 7.42-1 in the last future-wager pool. That closed on Nov. 30, four weeks after his Breeders' Cup triumph. 

I have his fair odds to win the Kentucky Derby at 9-1, making him a certain underlay in this pool. It is not that I am bothered by his lack of activity since winning the Breeders' Cup 11 weeks ago, it is that several horses have run as well as Ted Noffey has. He deserves the favoritism mantle based on accomplishment but others with upside are more exciting at bigger prices.

Iron Honor and Chief Wallabee are two such horses. Iron Honor won his career debut last month, besting two next-out winners and looking like he can handle longer distances, being by Nyquist out of a Blame mare. Chief Wallabee debuted last week at Gulfstream, going wide to close into a fast pace and win in a fast time. He is by Constitution out of a Medaglia d'Oro mare, so no concerns pedigree-wise with him either.

Obviously it is a big gamble to bet a maiden winner to get on the trail and do well with very little margin for error inside four months to the Kentucky Derby, but given they are at least 60-1 on the morning line I'd play them both.

As for the other stakes winners mentioned above, I am discouraged that Further Ado and Paladin moved backward Ragozin Sheet-wise in their stakes wins after impressive maiden scores. I do not mention that to dismiss their chances but rather to point out they are underlays.

Brant is similar to Ted Noffey in that he has no published activity since the Breeders' Cup. He is an exciting prospect, but I'd rather give up some equity now and see how he returns and stacks up against some of the new shooters such as Iron Honor and Chief Wallabee.

The field has a chance to be the best bet on the board, but I can't fault anyone not excited about 5-2 on their money over 16 weeks.