Kentucky Derby fair odds: Wait on these maiden winners

If there is one thing pool 4 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager taught me when it closed Sunday, it is that my opinion of the top contenders in this race differs wildly from what the public thinks.

Two maiden winners I am particularly high on, especially relative to their lack of accomplishments to date, are Chief Wallabee and Iron Honor. And both took less money in this pool than they did four weeks prior despite not much really changing in their trajectory. Granted, neither really improved his station, but until there is a setback I choose to remain excited about their prospects.

Kentucky Derby watch: Paladin validates his favoritism

This especially goes for Iron Honor, who trainer Chad Brown says now has a target in the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct. This one-turn mile makes sense for his second career start but leaves no margin for error since it puts the son of Nyquist on a trajectory for just only career starts before the Kentucky Derby.

Six Speed impressed me in winning the U.A.E. 2000 Guineas (G3), and the fact that America-based interests bought into Kentucky-bred before that start adds to the intrigue. He is waiting for the U.A.E. Derby (G2) on March 28 at Meydan Racecourse, but Lino Padrin, fourth behind Six Speed in their previous two starts, could give us a gauge on form when he runs in the Dubai Road to the Kentucky Derby on Friday at Meydan.

As for the top contenders, this is where I stray from the public the most. Relative to his accomplishments, Breeders' Cup Juvenile third-place finisher Brant has not taken much money in the pari-mutuel Kentucky Derby Future Wager pools, but talent-wise I think he belongs with any of Risen Star (G2) winner Paladin or Sam F. Davis Stakes winner Renegade. Those two also happened to be the one-two finishers, respectively, in the Remsen Stakes (G2)last year.