Kentucky Derby fair odds: Cox trio is 8-5 to win

Yes, Brad Cox is a Kentucky Derby-winning trainer, but he has never visited that particular winner's circle at Churchill Downs because his lone Derby win came weeks later via disqualification with Mandaloun in 2021.

The two-time Eclipse Award winner as outstanding trainer has his best chance to hoist the trophy immediately after the race this year thanks to winning three of the major Kentucky Derby preps the past three weekends: Fulleffort in the Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steaks, Commandment in the Florida Derby (G1) and Further Ado (G1) in the Blue Grass Stakes.

Kentucky Derby 2026 futures: Cox holds 2 of top 3 choices

From a wagering standpoint, I am most interested in Fulleffort, as he got a great figure for his marquee win, and I have a lot of respect for the runner-up that day, Stark Contrast. Of course, that was on synthetic, so dirt remains a question, but we're getting a price to compensate for that.

I'm least interested in Commandment, not because I don't think he can win this, but I just expect him to be the shortest price of the three. If I'm going to take a horse out of the Florida Derby why not runner-up The Puma or third-place Chief Wallabee (if he gets in) at more generous prices?

Speaking of The Puma, he defeated Further Ado in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3), and all that one came back to do was destroy the Blue Grass (G1) last weekend at Keeneland. Further Ado intrigues me because the conventional wisdom will be that he's a Keeneland horse, and that very well may be. But if his price floats because of it, I'll pay to find out if he's just a Kentucky horse. He did win a stakes at Churchill after his big Keeneland win, after all, and it's not like that Tampa Bay Derby was a poor effort in his 3-year-old debut.

I am completely selling the Wood Memorial. Neither of those horses have any reasonable chance to hit the board. I am less bearish on the Santa Anita Derby (G1) but have legitimate distance concerns for the top two finishers.

With the field coalescing, the pace is coming into focus. Six Speed might be in a lone speed situation. I still don't love his chances, given what we saw in the UAE Derby (G2) with similar dynamics. But it's possible, unfortunately, that a lack of pace compromises Fulleffort. All three of these horses will be shorter prices than Fulleffort, but Further Ado, The Puma and Chief Wallabee are front of mind for me if the pace looks slow.