Kentucky Derby 2023 fair odds: Continuar drops on poor work
With very little change to the body of the Kentucky Derby 2023 field, there has been very little change to my fair odds, but I made some adjustments after Wednesday's workouts at Churchill Downs.
To put it mildly, Continuar did not look great Wednesday morning, and of course he'll take some money because they all do and because the Japanese angle gets bet. But it was a bad enough workout that people will talk about it, and there's no doubt that Derma Sotogake is the better horse.
So, whereas before I had Continuar as sort of a wildcard and 100-1 to win the Derby, he is now 500-1 on my fair odds. And since I think he will be 50-1 in the gate, this is obviously a horse I do not want to use for a nickel given he is the biggest underlay in the race based on my fair odds.
The upgrade is Sun Thunder, who I moved from mostly dismissing at 200-1 to now 100-1. The reality is, he has hit all his marks: he did not miss any final preps and is working forwardly. Yes, he would be a surprise, but he fits the profile of an "in form" horse.
| Rank | Horse | Ed's fair odds |
| 1 | Forte | 7-2 |
| 2 | Practical Move | 7-1 |
| 3 | Tapit Trice | 5-1 |
| 4 | Angel of Empire | 16-1 |
| 5 | Two Phil's | 12-1 |
| 6 | Lord Miles | 35-1 |
| 7 | Derma Sotogake | 20-1 |
| 8 | Kingsbarns | 20-1 |
| 9 | Raise Cain | 150-1 |
| 10 | Rocket Can | 45-1 |
| 11 | Hit Show | 30-1 |
| 12 | Confidence Game | 300-1 |
| 13 | Verifying | 16-1 |
| 14 | Sun Thunder | 100-1 |
| 15 | Wild On Ice | 400-1 |
| 16 | Mage | 39-1 |
| 17 | Reincarnate | 35-1 |
| 18 | Disarm | 30-1 |
| 19 | Jace's Road | 194-1 |
| 20 | Continuar | 500-1 |