Ky. Derby fair odds: Chief Wallabee proves a new threat
Of the five most impressive performances in Triple Crown preps this past weekend, the horse with the most impressive performance of all is the only one who does not have enough points to guarantee a spot in Kentucky Derby 2026.
Chief Wallabee finished second in his second career start, losing the Fountain of Youth (G2) to Commandment, who ran his win streak to three. Both ran well, but Commandment's 50 points for winning ensures his starting spot in the Derby whereas Chief Wallabee's 25 points for second means he likely will require additional points in his final prep.
With 8 1/2 weeks until the Kentucky Derby, we're still in the "don't think of what has happened but what might be" stage of assessing not only talent level but also aptitude for 1 1/4 miles on the first Saturday in May. Chief Wallabee will have to be razor sharp the rest of the way to win the Derby in what would be his fourth career start. But the sky really does seem to be the limit for the Bill Mott trainee after he ran so well against a proven stakes performer in his second career start.
That is a slight contrast to Iron Honor, who won the Gotham (G3) on Feb. 28 at Aqueduct in his second career start for Chad Brown but was not as impressive in doing so as Chief Wallabee was in defeat. Iron Honor out-gamed Crown the Buckeye late, and I don't think there is any debate regarding Crown the Buckeye vs. Commandment. I'm reluctant to completely back off Iron Honor because he should improve. and we still have not seen him at two turns. But I went in to the weekend liking Iron Honor better than Chief Wallabee, and I can't say that now.
I will say, though, that I do not understand the "he looks like a one-turn" slash "he is not a mile-and-a-quarter horse" chatter for a colt by a Kentucky Derby winner out of a mare whose sire won the Breeders' Cup Classic. Granted, Nyquist had plenty of brilliance too, breaking his maiden in June and being a championship 2-year-old Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner, but I need to see Iron Honor at two turns before I give up on him as a Derby prospect.
As for the Rebel (G2), I'm stunned Silent Tactic did not go by, but that is a testament to Class President, I suppose. Neither thrills me as a horse I have to have in my Derby future wager portfolio, but nor are they anywhere close to a #toss designation.