Fair odds: Kentucky Derby has 1 standout, not 2
The best thing that has happened to backers of either Fierceness or Sierra Leone is that the other won his respective final Kentucky Derby prep impressively, helping to draw money away from the other.
To a certain extent, the same could be said for Catching Freedom and Forever Young since the storyline after Sierra Leone's win in the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes centered on the Derby now being a two-horse race between him and Florida Derby (G1) winner Fierceness.
I do not see it that way at all. I see it as a one-horse race: champion and Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Fierceness and everyone else.
Fair odds are in points order and include the top 23 plus the Japanese road to the Derby invitee T O Password as no. 24.
| # | Entrant | Odds-1 | # | Entrant | Odds-1: |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sierra Leone | 7 | 13 | Honor Marie | 22 |
| 2 | Fierceness | 3 | 14 | Domestic Product | 200 |
| 3 | Catching Freedom | 8 | 15 | Catalytic | 250 |
| 4 | Stronghold | 18 | 16 | Deterministic | 95 |
| 5 | Resilience | 25 | 17 | Society Man | 95 |
| 6 | Forever Young | 9 | 18 | Mystik Dan | 50 |
| 7 | Endlessly | 30 | 19 | No More Time | 300 |
| 8 | Dornoch | 30 | 20 | Grand Mo the First | 400 |
| 9 | Just a Touch | 10 | 21 | Common Defense | 150 |
| 10 | Track Phantom | 100 | 22 | Epic Ride | 100 |
| 11 | West Saratoga | 200 | 23 | Hades | 200 |
| 12 | Just Steel | 32 | 24 | T O Password | 500 |
That is not to say that Fierceness is worth a bet. I have him as 3-1 on my fair-odds line, which means he is an underlay against his 2.75-1 price in some bookmaking markets. But he is not nearly the underlay as Sierra Leone, who is a similar price among the future books but 7-1 on my fair odds line.
That price puts him much closer to a tier of runners who include Louisiana Derby (G2) winner Catching Freedom, U.A.E. Derby (G2) winner Forever Young and Blue Grass runner-up Just a Touch.
Based on the prices of that trio with the Las Vegas-based books, I could see any of them offering the most value in the Derby. That includes Forever Young, who looked a certain underlay after winning the U.A.E. Derby. But he is not the type of horse I want to let beat me if the top two choices disappoint.
Much more will be said about the U.A.E. path to the Kentucky Derby in the coming week. Not only is it winless, but it never has finished in the money. I still don't love the path, but I do think Forever Young is a serious racehorse. If more shine wears off, then he'll be in my mix. If steam starts to brew, though, then I'm prepared to toss.
Anyway, as for the top two, as a Ragozin Sheets devotee, I just can't have any opinion other than Fierceness being the more talented racehorse. Obviously he had a real clunker last year ahead of the Breeders' Cup and a disappointing effort in his 3-year-old debut. But I like the way he handled a cross-country ship after laying an egg to win big. And the horse he beat in the Breeders' Cup, Muth, came back to win the Arkansas Derby (G1). He'll be waiting for the Derby winner in the Preakness Stakes by virtue of his trainer Bob Baffert not being allowed to compete at Churchill Downs Inc.-operated racetracks.
I will update with each defection until the draw on Saturday, April 27, at which point the list will be in program number order. I will include all horses listed in a 100-point, fair-odds line until the draw, and then it will be the 20 in the gate with the up to four also-eligible horses.
Fair-odds analysis of the Kentucky Derby is sponsored by the Kentucky Thoroughbred Development Fund.