Kentucky Derby fair odds: Calif. will produce favorite. But who?

There are few certainties in horse racing, but one thing that seems like a sure thing is that this year's Kentucky Derby favorite will be the winner of the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby on Saturday. 

Through four races that offer 100 Kentucky Derby qualifying points to the winner, none of the winners asserted themselves as a potential favorite. Put another way, none of the performers of the last two weeks look to be as good as either Citizen Bull or Journalism, the presumptive top two choices in the Santa Anita Derby.

I still have Citizen Bull as my most likely Kentucky Derby winner as the champion Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner has not done anything wrong since asserting himself as last year's best 2-year-old.

Is he the best 3-year-old? It's a reasonable question with the only answer against at this point being Journalism, an impressive winner of the San Felipe (G2) over Citizen Bull's Bob Baffert-trained stablemate Barnes.

From a wagering perspective, the runner-up in the Santa Anita Derby might actually be the better bet on May 3 at Churchill Downs.

This is the first Kentucky Derby fair odds I've done for this year's race that is now in points order, so some key participants in this weekend's races are not included.