Ky. Derby fair odds: 3-5 chance we saw winner last weekend

If there were a prop bet on what date the Kentucky Derby winner had his final prep, then March 28 would be fair odds at 3-5 thanks to a deep Grade 1 Florida Derby field and an impressive runaway victory by Renegade in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby.

And just for good measure, you also get undefeated Fukuryu Stakes winner Danon Bourbon, the UAE Derby (G2) exacta of Wonder Dean and Six Speed and Arkansas Derby runner-up Silent Tactic. But make no mistake, 3-5 would be the play because of Commandment, The Puma and Chief Wallabee at Gulfstream Park and Renegade at Oaklawn.

The former was an exciting race that went to Commandment by a nose over The Puma with Chief Wallabee between them in third. Any of these three are legitimate contenders for the Kentucky Derby on May 2 at Churchill Downs. From a price perspective, Commandment is the least appealing because supporters will have to pay the first-place tax of him actually having won his last race. Either The Puma or Chief Wallabee make as much sense at bigger prices.

The Arkansas Derby was more a one-man show with Renegade impressing. There are three prep races on April 4, but no one to run in those looks like any danger to wrest favoritism from Renegade off that performance, mostly because of previous Derby favorite Paladin being declared off the trail by trainer Chad Brown. Paladin and Renegade were the one-two finishers in the Remsen Stakes last year and are a combined 3-for-3 in their 3-year-old seasons.

I'm bearish on the international horses. Shipping to the U.S. and then racing on five weeks' rest is an absolute crucible that not even Forever Young could overcome, so I'm just not feeling Wonder Dean's ability to get it done against the likes of the aforementioned Arkansas and Florida Derby horses. Six Speed is an interesting pace threat, but I'd like him a lot more in the Preakness Stakes.