Kentucky Derby debuts: Will '26 winner make 1st start in July?

Looking at the last 25 Kentucky Derby winners reveals interesting patterns about when future Derby winners first stepped into the starting gate.

October emerges as the most popular debut month, with six Derby winners making their first start during this time. July and August each produced five future Derby winners, indicating that mid-to-late summer debuts provide the greatest chance of finding the future Derby winner as nearly two-thirds, 16 of 25, of Kentucky Derby winners made their debuts between July and October.

The table below highlights when the last 25 Kentucky Derby winners started their careers. Only two of the last 25 winners debuted between April and June. So percentagewise, that translates to an 8% chance that we've already seen the 2026 Derby winner in racing action.

But things pick up in July as five of 25 Derby winners debuted this month, when we first saw Always Dreaming, I'll Have Another, Street Sense, Giacomo and Mine That Bird. So theoretically there's a 20 percent chance we could the Derby winner start in July.

Derby winners debut date, earliest to latest, 2001-25

Conversely, very late debuts are equally uncommon. Only Mage in January and Justify in February made their first starts in their 3-year-old year. But with these two recent winners, a lack of 2-year-old racing that was once considered a major obstacle is no longer viewed the same way.

The debut finish positions tell another story about Derby development. Nine Derby winners captured their career-opening races. Of the 16 others who did not win, nine finished off the board. This would seem to indicate there isn't much correlation between a good or bad debut and being a future Derby star. So if you own a 2-year-old and a dream, there's no reason to give up hope after one race.