Kentucky Derby card: 4 price plays at Churchill Downs
Churchill Downs has put together a fantastic Saturday card headlined by the Kentucky Derby. Many of the sport's brightest stars, including Knightsbridge and Splendora, will be on display ahead of the main event.
Star power is exciting to watch, but it can lead to some short prices. Even with the potential for low prices in a few races, it takes only one or two horses winning at double-digit odds to make a Pick 4 or Pick 5 sequence lucrative. Below I analyze four runners who are better than their morning-line indicates, making them intriguing price plays.
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Vamos Carlitos, 15-1, race 3
The son of Catholic Boy has seen sharp improvement in his form since returning to the races as a gelded 4-year-old. His Beyer Speed Figures from Daily Racing Form have improved from a 66 to a 79 to a 94 in his last three starts. His first start of the year is a toss as it was sprinting on the grass. He ran a decent third in his next start while trying to catch a loose front-runner. The Greg Foley trainee put it all together last out with a strong win over Rothko, a son of Covfefe, who returned to win and always has looked like a promising horse. Tyler Gaffalione takes the mount, and this gelding may have to run only as well as he did last time to get the job done. Normally I do not read very much into Beyer Speed Figures, but when the horse who has the highest last-out figure is sitting at 15-1, it is worth noting. Detractors will say his last was a fluke, but I think it was the product of continued development as a gelding.
Temptable , 8-1, race 7, Distaff Turf Mile (G2)
The Distaff Turf Mile features a nice group of fillies and mares, but it lacks a standout. Three of the top four choices on the morning line are seeking their first graded-stakes win. So it would be no surprise to see a bit of a fresh face pull off a mild upset. This filly showed an improving pattern in France, including a stakes win over a left-handed course, before shipping to America to run in the Goldikova Stakes (G3) on the Breeders' Cup undercard. She did not factor that day, but she had the 11 post, was running just four weeks after her win in France and was facing a tough field. She has been freshened for her first start as a 4-year-old and switches to the care of trainer Bill Mott. This filly has been working very well leading up to this race and looks ready to roll on Saturday.
Blinging It Back, 30-1, race 9, American Turf (G1)
Much like Vamos Carlitos, this is a gelding play. The Mark Casse trainee had decent form as a 2-year-old, but nothing that would make one believe he could compete with this type. His first start as a 3-year-old however, was very good. Making his first start as a gelding and first start in almost six months, this son of Volatile closed well to lose the Cutler Bay Stakes at Gulfstream Park by only a neck. Casse always has thought highly of this runner, placing him in stakes competition as a maiden, and it seems like he has turned the corner as a 3-year-old with potential on the turf. He will be closing late and should be included in exotic wagers at a huge price.
Chief Wallabee, 8-1, race 12, Kentucky Derby
The son of Constitution never has gone off higher than 3-1 in three lifetime starts, but will be almost triple that price on Saturday because of the nature of the Kentucky Derby. A horse has to be naturally talented to win on day one for Bill Mott, as he values patience and does not crank up his horses to win on debut. After defeating The Puma on debut, Chief Wallabee showed he belonged in the big leagues with a narrow loss against Commandment, who entered the Fountain of Youth (G2) as a much more seasoned runner. He exits the best of all Kentucky Derby preps this year, the Florida Derby (G1), and he held his own despite not running his best. Bill Mott agreed with the mild disappointment I felt watching the Florida Derby and adds blinkers for the Kentucky Derby. This move tells me that Mott is not going to be complacent just hitting the board in the Derby and is willing to take a risky move to try to bring out the best of this colt. If anyone knows what they are doing, it is the reigning Kentucky Derby winner Bill Mott. This colt has been working lights-out with the blinkers and should sit a perfect trip from a good draw, getting first run on Renegade and other top contenders.