Kentucky Derby Trends

The favorite reigns. Ever since the Road to the Kentucky Derby point system was established, the favorite has been the winner. Beginning in 2013, Orb, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Nyquist, and now Always Dreaming have won the Kentucky Derby as the race favorite. Although Classic Empire was the 4-1 morning line favorite this year and Always Dreaming was the 5-1 co-second choice with McCraken, bettors quickly made the winning Todd Pletcher colt the top pick, sending him off at 9-2.

An undefeated three-year-old season before the Kentucky Derby might be key. Since 2012, the winner of the Kentucky Derby entered the Run for the Roses undefeated as a three-year-old. I’ll Have Another, Orb, California Chrome, American Pharoah, and Nyquist all had at least a perfect three-year-old record heading into the Kentucky Derby. The only two horses in the 2017 field that fit the criteria were Fast and Accurate and Always Dreaming. Fast and Accurate had two starts in 2017 prior to the Derby. The first was on turf at Gulfstream Park, while the second was on Turfway Park’s synthetic track in the Grade 3 Spiral. Always Dreaming broke his maiden as a three-year-old by 11 ½ lengths at Tampa Bay Downs, took an allowance at Gulfstream Park by four lengths, and romped home a five length winner in the Grade 1 Florida Derby, all on dirt. The Bodemeister colt was the clear choice between the two and went on to win the 143rd Kentucky Derby by 2 ¾ lengths, while Fast and Accurate finished 17th at 41-1.

The Florida Derby proves to be the best prep once again. Kentucky Derby winners to come out of the Florida Derby include Always Dreaming (2017), Nyquist (2016), Orb (2013), Big Brown (2008), Barbaro (2006), Monarchos (2001), Thunder Gulch (1995), Go for Gin (1994), Strike the Gold (1991), Unbridled (1990), Swale (1984), Pleasant Colony (1981), and Spectacular Bid (1979). While the Santa Anita Derby and the Arkansas Derby have also proven successful, the Florida Derby is the prep with the most recent Kentucky Derby winners.

The winner was never positioned worse than third. The last four Kentucky Derby winners, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Nyquist and Always Dreaming, were never further back than third throughout the race. California Chrome and American Pharoah were positioned in third, while Nyquist and Always Dreaming sat in second.

Trends that were broken

The West Coast did not dominate. California Chrome, American Pharoah, and Nyquist were all based in California. In 2015, runner-up Firing Line and third-place finisher Dortmund were also out of the Golden State, as well as the 2016 runner-up Exaggerator. The best horse from the West Coast this year was Battle of Midway, who held on to show at 40-1. The next best horse from California was Gormley, who finished ninth at 22-1.

Always Dreaming was not a winner at two. Monarchos, the 2001 Kentucky Derby winner, was the last horse to win the Run for the Roses that was not a winner at two-years-old. Always Dreaming was third and second in his two starts in 2016, but did not break his maiden until his three-year-old year. Both Monarchos and Always Dreaming captured their first win in January of their three-year-old season before going on to win the Kentucky Derby.

By Christine Oser