Kentucky Derby Top 20: First win for Asmussen 'in the works'
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Have you ever won the Kentucky Derby?
That’s the question everyone asks trainers, because that’s the race everyone knows. A few races are richer and a few might possess more championship heft, but throughout America’s vast cultural landscape, on the promontory of popular awareness, only the Kentucky Derby sits so high that everyone can see it. And on the first Saturday in May, the entire nation stops to watch. So, have you ever won the Kentucky Derby?
“I get asked that question all the time,” trainer Steve Asmussen said.
The fellow traveler in the next seat on the airplane asks; the cabbie asks on the way to Belmont Park; the waiter asks after describing the day’s specials. Nobody asks if you’ve ever won the Preakness, or the Kentucky Oaks, or the Breeders’ Cup Classic, or the Dubai World Cup or the Pegasus World Cup. They all ask, “Have you ever won the Kentucky Derby?”
The question, since it reveals an abiding interest and a benign curiosity, doesn’t annoy so much as amuse. Asmussen has come to expect the question, and he has a stock reply for it. The trainer, of course, could respond by pointing out that although he hasn’t won the Derby, he has won just about everything else, from New York to California to Dubai. In fact, the Texan has saddled more winners and won more races (8,735) than any other trainer in the country, and on his current pace he’ll become horse racing’s all-time leader next year. Or he could point out that he’s in the sport’s Hall of Fame or, even better, that on four occasions he has trained the Horse of the Year — Curlin (twice), Rachel Alexandra and Gun Runner. Not since Ben Jones teamed up with the legendary Calumet Farm back in the 1940s has a trainer developed so many Horses of the Year. But, no, Asmussen doesn’t mention any of that in response to the Derby question.
“When somebody asks me that,” Asmussen explained, “I say, ‘No, I haven’t won it, but I’ve started more horses in the Derby without winning it than anybody else.’”
It’s true, for the moment: Asmussen leads in the frustration Derby, having saddled 20 horses in the first event of the Triple Crown, with two seconds and two thirds and no victories. But he can be self-deprecating about his Derby worksheet because he knows his overall record is incomparable and, most of all, because he’s certain that one of these grand, roseate affairs on one of these clock-stopping, attention-grabbing first Saturdays in May will be his. He’s 54, and so it’s possible, even likely, that he’ll win multiple Kentucky Derbys before he’s done.
“It’s there,” Asmussen said about a Derby victory, as if he could make it out clearly, somewhere in the distance. “It’s in the works. It just hasn’t happened yet.”
But it’ll happen soon, maybe as soon as this year. Asmussen has a deeply talented group of 3-year-olds in his care, with several of them pointed in the general direction of the 146th Kentucky Derby. He likes the group very much, he said, but nobody has stepped forward to proclaim himself the next Curlin or the next Gun Runner, not yet anyway.
Still, rarely has anybody trained so many talented youngsters that are within reach of the sort of performance that could put them in the Kentucky Derby. In the recent Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs, Ark., for example, Asmussen sent out a quartet of starters, including Gold Street, who led throughout for his third consecutive victory.
The Asmussen contingent also includes Silver Prospector, Shoplifted and Halo Again, who all won stakes races last year. Shoplifted, Asmussen said, “has a lot left.” And Silver Prospector, although fourth in the Smarty Jones, “finished up strongly,” which is encouraging for the longer races ahead.
And then there’s Silver State, who finished second in the recent Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds in New Orleans. He has had trouble at the start in all three of his races; he has been wide and bumped and generally hindered and hampered. Does he have a trouble-seeking propensity? Maybe, but these are youngsters, all of them still learning and still improving, and Asmussen said he remains optimistic about Silver State.
But the most accomplished colt among the Asmussen group is Basin. After a fast maiden victory, he won the Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga by more than six lengths. Preparing for his return to competition, he has put in two half-mile workouts at Fair Grounds. But he could make his first stakes appearance of the season, Asmussen said, at Oaklawn Park.
In the coming months, could one of the Asmussen youngsters proclaim himself to be the next Gun Runner? Of course, but not even that would ensure a roseate victory because the Kentucky Derby is more than a horse race, more even than the most famous of races. It’s an event, Asmussen said, a spectacle. Circumstances swirl wildly and unpredictably, often determining the outcome. Being the best horse isn’t enough. Curlin was the best horse of his generation, so was Gun Runner, and they both finished third in the Derby. Superior talent isn’t enough, not in the shadows of the Twin Spires on the first Saturday in May. The Derby can be so enigmatic and inscrutable that sometimes it’s as if a horse doesn’t win it so much as get chosen to share in its glorious history. Then, too, the Derby can pluck a nobody out of nowhere — Mine That what? — and drop him into the winner’s circle.
Todd Pletcher saddled 24 horses in the Derby before winning it in 2010 with Super Saver. D. Wayne Lukas saddled 12 Derby losers before he found the winner’s circle in 1988 with Winning Colors. There’s a Derby for Asmussen, too. He can see it, it’s out there, and when it chooses him, he’ll be ready.
Gary West is a nationally acclaimed turf columnist, racing analyst, author and handicapper who helped pioneer pace figures. Here is his first weekly Derby Top 20 list.
No. Horse#Trainer#Starts-Wins-Seconds-Thirds#Earnings#Sire#Comment
1. Dennis’ Moment#Dale Romans#4-2-0-0#$167,800#Tiznow#
He clipped heels in his debut and stumbled to his knees in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but except for a couple of troubled moments he has been sensational. He’s in Florida preparing for his return to competition next month in the Fountain of Youth Stakes.
2. Independence Hall#Michael Trombetta#3-3-0-0#$210,000#Constitution#
Despite his choleric pre-race misbehavior, a slow start and a wide trip, he still won the Jerome Stakes by four lengths. He’ll return to competition next month at Tampa Bay.
3. Nadal#Bob Baffert#1-1-0-0#$33,000#Blame#
After a hesitant start, he grabbed the lead faster than you could say “Justify redux” and then went on to score a handy victory in his debut at Santa Anita. He looks like he could become Baffert’s next superstar.
4. Tiz The Law#Barclay Tagg#3-2-0-1#$347,000#Constitution#
He won the Champagne with a jaw-dropping performance, but then disappointed on a sloppy track at Churchill Downs. He appears to be training sharply for his return Saturday in the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park.
5. Thousand Words#Bob Baffert#2-2-0-0#$151,000#Pioneerof The Nile#
A million-dollar yearling, he won the Los Alamitos Futurity in only the second start of his career. Another ace in Baffert’s strong hand, he returns in Saturday’s Robert Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita.
6. Honor A.P.#John Shirreffs#2-1-1-1#$42,200#Honor Code#
A graceful, long-striding colt, he romped to an easy victory at Santa Anita in October and has been training in Southern California for his return.
7. Anneau d’Or#Blaine Wright#3-1-2-0#$399,000#Medaglia d’Oro#
The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile runner-up is talented, professional and improving. He’ll probably make his seasonal debut next month at Golden Gate in the Camino Real Derby.
8. Authentic#Bob Baffert#2-2-0-0#$91,200#Into Mischief#
He dominated in the Sham Stakes, controlling the pace and winning easily despite ducking toward the inside rail in mid-stretch. He finished in hand but off-stride. He’s conspicuously fast and talented, but he’s also inexperienced, with considerable room for improvement. Blinkers or earplugs could be in his future, per his trainer.
9. Basin#Steve Asmussen#3-2-1-0#$261,000#Liam’s Map#
In September, with an explosive move, he won the Hopeful at Saratoga by more than six lengths. Preparing for his seasonal debut, he has had a couple half-mile workouts and will probably return March 14 in the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn.
10. Storm The Court#Peter Eurton#4-2-0-1#$1,172,951#Court Vision#
Having won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at 45-1, the champion, strange to say, might be underrated. Several challengers could line up on Feb. 9 to take him on at Santa Anita in the San Vicente Stakes.
11. Green Light Go#Jimmy Jerkens#3-2-1-0#$254,000#Hard Spun#
Last year, he won the Saratoga Special and finished second in the Champagne. He appears to be training well for his return Saturday in the Swale Stakes, where he’ll take on the swift maiden winner Untitled.
12. Maxfield#Brendan Walsh#2-2-0-0#$354,412#Street Sense#
He gave one of the best juvenile performances of 2019 when he won the Breeders’ Futurity in October by more than five lengths. With some time off after surgery to repair a bone chip, he's back to galloping. “We’ll let him tell us when to step it up,” Walsh said.
13. Silver State#Steve Asmussen#3-1-2-0#$96,106#Hard Spun#
So far in his brief career, he has experienced more trouble than success. He had a difficult trip from start to finish, for example, when second in the Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds. But the potential appears to be there for him to join the division’s leaders.
14. Eight Rings#Bob Baffert#4-2-0-0#$236,951#Empire Maker#
After the colt’s dismal showing in the Breeders’ Cup, Baffert decided to give him some time off. Winner of last year’s American Pharoah Stakes, Eight Rings could be part of his trainer’s annual invasion of Oaklawn Park, probably returning in the Rebel Stakes.
15. Gouverneur Morris#Todd Pletcher#2-1-1-0#$149,500#Constitution#
The big gray colt finished second at Keeneland after a wide journey in the Breeders’ Futurity. He’s in Florida preparing for his return.
16. Enforceable#Mark Casse#7-2-1-2#$267,150#Tapit#
Improving steadily, he took a significant step forward to win the Leomte despite a wide trip, and he looks like a colt whose progress can only continue with added distance.
17. Ajaaweed#Kiaran McLaughlin#4-1-1-0#$119,850#Curlin#
He rallied to finish second in the Remsen, and although he’s a bit of a plodder he looks like he’ll continue to improve as the distances stretch out.
18. Great Power#Simon Callaghan#1-1-0-0#$30,000#Blame#
Back in September, the huge colt raced a little wide and didn’t switch strides in the lane, but he won his debut in a fast clocking and was about 15 lengths in front by the time he was pulled up, flashing tremendous potential. On Monday in California, he had his first official workout of the season.
19. Silver Prospector#Steve Asmussen#7-2-0-2#$263,051#Declaration of War#
He rallied from last to finish fourth over a speed-friendly muddy surface in the recent Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park, but he was a stakes winner last year at Churchill.
20. Answer In#Brad Cox#3-1-2-0#$153,412#Dialed In#
He disappointed when second as the odds-on favorite in the Springboard Mile at Remington Park, but he had a troubled trip and might have been best. He’s at Oaklawn preparing for his seasonal debut.
ALSO ELIGIBLES
21. Blackberry Wine#Joe Sharp#6-2-0-3#$112,622#Oxbow#
Disregard his turf efforts, and he has won two of three, most notably stepping forward to win his last in a fast clocking with a powerful gallop-out.
22. Mailman Money#Bret Calhoun#2-2-0-0#$79,012#Goldencents#
In his recent outing, the bald-faced colt raced wide around both turns before drawing clear to win by nearly six lengths, and then he galloped out strongly as if to suggest he’s ready for stakes company.
23. As Seen On Tv#Kelly Breen#4-2-2-0#$108,205#Lookin At Lucky#
He never has run a poor race, and he has improved steadily. He’ll get his big test in the Fountain of Youth.
24. War Stopper#Rudy Rodriguez#4-1-0-0#$41,070#Declaration of War#
With the addition of blinkers, he recently leaped forward to win by four lengths. He’s aimed at the Gotham in early March.
Playing the horses can be a rewarding but tough game. Exacta, trifectas, superfectas, Pick 4s, Pick 5s -- there are so many wagers to play, it can get overly confusing.
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