Kentucky Derby: See new favorite among 104 betting choices
Cave Rock went into the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile with the best speed numbers. Forte came out of it with the victory. Two days after they raced at Keeneland, neither was the Nevada futures favorite for Kentucky Derby 2023. Instead, it was a Bob Baffert colt who won a maiden race on the Breeders’ Cup Saturday undercard.
Arabian Knight, who won Saturday’s first race at Keeneland by 7 1/4 lengths, opened at 10-1 to become the new favorite Sunday in the Caesars Sportsbook futures for the Derby next spring.
Even though a two-year Churchill Downs suspension prevents Baffert from entering horses in the 2023 Derby, his horses still generate steam from futures bettors.
“I will usually say they bet Baffert blind,” said Paul Bach, who writes the Derby odds for Caesars. “Last year was a little slow due to the uncertainty of possible trainer changes, etc. I believe all those fears have been allayed, and they’ll be back at it again this year.”
Baffert horses still may run in the 2023 Derby if they are transferred to other trainers, as was the case this year when 12th-place Taiba and 15th-place Messier were moved to Tim Yakteen. Baffert’s current horses were not parsed individually for the pari-mutuel Kentucky Derby Future Wager conducted last week by Churchill Downs.
Forte, who had been cut from 40-1 to 10-1 after his Juvenile victory Friday, drifted Sunday to 15-1 in the Caesars futures. Cave Rock, a Baffert colt who finished second as an odds-on favorite in the Juvenile, held firm at 16-1. Extra Añejo, a debut winner last month at Keeneland and the individual favorite in the KDFW, shortened from 30-1 to 20-1 in Las Vegas.
These were the Derby horses posted at Caesars on Sunday night shown with their current and opening prices as well as their closing odds Thursday in the first pool of the KDFW:
| Kentucky Derby | Caesars | Opened | KDFW | Last race |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arabian Knight | 10-1 | *4-5 | 1st MSW at KEE | |
| Forte | 15-1 | 40-1 | 16-1 | 1st Breeders' Cup Juvenile |
| Cave Rock | 16-1 | 14-1 | *4-5 | 2nd Breeders' Cup Juvenile |
| Extra Añejo | 20-1 | 30-1 | 12-1 | 1st MSW at KEE |
| Arabian Lion | 25-1 | 45-1 | *4-5 | 2nd Alw OC at KEE |
| National Treasure | 30-1 | 65-1 | *4-5 | 3rd Breeders' Cup Juvenile |
| Havnameltdown | 35-1 | 35-1 | *4-5 | 2nd Del Mar Futurity (G1) |
| Loggins | 35-1 | 35-1 | 27-1 | 2nd Breeders' Futurity (G1) |
| Echo Again | 50-1 | 50-1 | 33-1 | 7th Iroquois (G3) |
| Giant Mischief | 60-1 | *4-5 | 1st Alw OC at KEE | |
| Signator | 70-1 | 85-1 | 39-1 | 1st MSW at BAQ |
| Awesome Strong | 75-1 | 75-1 | 57-1 | 1st Florida Sire In Reality |
| Blazing Sevens | 75-1 | 75-1 | 20-1 | 4th Breeders' Cup Juvenile |
| Mr. Ripple | 75-1 | 75-1 | 145-1 | 1st MSW at GP |
| Disarm | 80-1 | 100-1 | *4-5 | 1st MSW at SAR |
| Instant Coffee | 85-1 | 85-1 | 93-1 | 4th Breeders' Futurity (G1) |
| Super Chow | 85-1 | 85-1 | *4-5 | 1st Bowman Mill |
| Tapit's Conquest | 85-1 | 85-1 | 81-1 | 1st MSW at CD |
| Capture the Flag | 100-1 | 150-1 | *4-5 | 1st MSW at SAR |
| Forbidden Secret | 100-1 | 100-1 | 89-1 | 1st Alw OC at KEE |
| Fort Bragg | 100-1 | 75-1 | *4-5 | 1st MSW at SA |
| Fort Warren | 100-1 | 100-1 | *4-5 | 1st MSW at SA |
| Gulfport | 100-1 | 100-1 | 58-1 | 3rd Champagne (G1) |
| Hejazi | 100-1 | 100-1 | *4-5 | 3rd American Pharoah (G1) |
| Hit Show | 100-1 | 100-1 | 46-1 | 1st MSW at KEE |
| Honed | 100-1 | 100-1 | *4-5 | 6th Street Sense (G3) |
| Jackstown | 100-1 | 100-1 | *4-5 | 1st MSW at DMR |
| Mo Strike | 100-1 | 100-1 | *4-5 | 4th Hopeful (G1) |
| Practical Move | 100-1 | 100-1 | *4-5 | 1st MSW at SA |
| Two Phil's | 100-1 | 100-1 | 99-1 | 1st Street Sense (G3) |
| Victory Formation | 100-1 | 100-1 | 74-1 | 1st MSW at KEE |
| Arctic Arrogance | 120-1 | 120-1 | *4-5 | 1st Sleepy Hollow |
| Curly Jack | 125-1 | 80-1 | 41-1 | 5th Breeders' Cup Juvenile |
| Damon's Mound | 125-1 | 125-1 | 103-1 | 6th Iroquois (G3) |
| Frank's Honor | 125-1 | 125-1 | 93-1 | 1st MSW at CD |
| Lost Ark | 125-1 | 75-1 | 51-1 | DNF Breeders' Cup Juvenile |
| Newgate | 125-1 | 125-1 | *4-5 | 5th Breeders' Futurity |
| Owen's Leap | 125-1 | 125-1 | *4-5 | 2nd Bashford Manor |
| Post Time | 125-1 | 125-1 | 264-1 | 1st Alw OC at LRL |
| Rudder's Men | 125-1 | 125-1 | 134-1 | 1st MSW at BAQ |
| Speed Boat Beach | 125-1 | 85-1 | *4-5 | 9th BC Juvenile Turf Sprint |
| Tahoma | 125-1 | 125-1 | *4-5 | 11th Del Mar Juv. Turf (G3) |
| Top Recruit | 125-1 | 125-1 | *4-5 | 4th Street Sense (G3) |
| Two of a Kind | 125-1 | 125-1 | *4-5 | 1st Tremont |
| Verifying | 125-1 | 85-1 | 44-1 | 6th Breeders' Cup Juvenile |
| Champions Dream | 135-1 | 125-1 | *4-5 | 1st Nashua (G3) |
| Turbo | 135-1 | 135-1 | *4-5 | 1st Juvenile Sprint |
| Tuskegee Airmen | 135-1 | 135-1 | 112-1 | 1st Rocky Run |
| American Blaze | 150-1 | 150-1 | *4-5 | 6th Alw OC at KEE |
| Andiamo a Firenze | 150-1 | 150-1 | *4-5 | 2nd N.Y. Breeders' Futurity |
| B Minor | 150-1 | 150-1 | *4-5 | 9th Bourbon (G2) |
| Bourbon Spirit | 150-1 | 150-1 | *4-5 | 9th Alw OC at KEE |
| Carmel Road | 150-1 | 150-1 | *4-5 | 13th Breeders' Futurity (G1) |
| Confidence Game | 150-1 | 150-1 | *4-5 | 2nd Alw OC at KEE |
| Donegal Surges | 150-1 | 150-1 | *4-5 | 4th Sleepy Hollow |
| Frosted Departure | 150-1 | 150-1 | *4-5 | 7th Street Sense (G3) |
| Full Moon Madness | 150-1 | 150-1 | 160-1 | 2nd Nashua (G3) |
| Gandolfini | 150-1 | 150-1 | *4-5 | 4th American Pharoah (G1) |
| Jace's Road | 150-1 | 150-1 | *4-5 | 8th Street Sense (G3) |
| Judo | 150-1 | 150-1 | *4-5 | 2nd Alw OC at CD |
| Kangaroo Court (g) | 150-1 | 150-1 | *4-5 | 1st MSW at DMR |
| Kingdom Heart | 150-1 | 150-1 | *4-5 | 1st MSW at GP |
| Legacy Isle | 150-1 | 150-1 | *4-5 | 1st MSW at GP |
| Lugan Knight | 150-1 | 150-1 | *4-5 | 1st MSW at KEE |
| Midnight Trouble | 150-1 | 150-1 | *4-5 | 2nd Rocky Run |
| Powerful | 150-1 | 150-1 | *4-5 | 11th Breeders' Futurity (G1) |
| Prince of Jericho | 150-1 | 150-1 | *4-5 | 1st MSW at LRL |
| Protégé | 150-1 | 135-1 | 155-1 | 5th Alw OC at KEE |
| Quick Hammer | 150-1 | 150-1 | *4-5 | 5th Bowman Mill |
| Raise Cain | 150-1 | 150-1 | *4-5 | 3rd Bowman Mill |
| Red Route One | 150-1 | 150-1 | *4-5 | 5th Street Sense (G3) |
| Stud Lovin | 150-1 | 150-1 | *4-5 | 2nd Alw OC at KD |
| Traffic Master | 150-1 | 150-1 | *4-5 | 3rd Alw OC at KEE |
| Tres Soles | 150-1 | 135-1 | 87-1 | 6th Alw OC at KEE |
| X Y Point | 150-1 | 150-1 | *4-5 | 3rd Alw OC at CD |
| Arman | 175-1 | 175-1 | *4-5 | 7th Speakeasy |
| Bourbon Bash | 175-1 | 175-1 | *4-5 | 2nd Bowman Mill |
| Cajun Hope | 175-1 | 175-1 | *4-5 | 12th Florida Sire In Reality |
| Classical Cat | 175-1 | 175-1 | *4-5 | 1st Alw OC at SA |
| Congruent | 175-1 | 125-1 | 123-1 | 8th Breeders' Cup Juvenile |
| Giver Not a Taker | 175-1 | 175-1 | *4-5 | 2nd Golden State Juvenile |
| Hard to Handle | 175-1 | 175-1 | *4-5 | 9th Florida Sire In Reality |
| Hurricane J | 175-1 | 125-1 | 117-1 | 7th Breeders' Cup Juvenile |
| Jackson Heights | 175-1 | 175-1 | *4-5 | 5th Sleepy Hollow |
| Knox | 175-1 | 175-1 | *4-5 | 3rd Florida Sire In Reality |
| Light Man | 175-1 | 175-1 | *4-5 | 1st MSW at SAR |
| Major Dude | 175-1 | 150-1 | *4-5 | 9th Breeders' Cup Juv. Turf |
| Old Alliance | 175-1 | 150-1 | *4-5 | 3rd Alw OC at KEE |
| Straighten Up | 175-1 | 175-1 | *4-5 | 6th Speakeasy |
| This Run's for You | 175-1 | 175-1 | *4-5 | 6th Florida Sire Affirmed |
| Tigre | 175-1 | 175-1 | *4-5 | 2nd Florida Sire In Reality |
| Agency | 200-1 | 200-1 | *4-5 | 8th Del Mar Futurity (G1) |
| Apocalypso | 200-1 | 200-1 | *4-5 | 4th Florida Sire In Reality |
| Divemaster | 200-1 | 200-1 | *4-5 | 1st MSW at CD |
| El de Chimi | 200-1 | 200-1 | *4-5 | 7th Awad |
| Eyes On the King | 200-1 | 200-1 | *4-5 | 5th at Alw OC at GP |
| Gran Slash | 200-1 | 200-1 | *4-5 | 1st Alw OC at GP |
| Rolling On | 200-1 | 200-1 | *4-5 | 2nd Alw OC at GP |
| Roman Giant | 200-1 | 200-1 | *4-5 | 9th Clever Trevor |
| Canarsie | 225-1 | 200-1 | *4-5 | 9th Sleepy Hollow |
| Blame It On Daddy | 250-1 | 200-1 | *4-5 | 7th Sleepy Hollow |
| Roan Burgundy | 250-1 | 200-1 | *4-5 | 3rd Alw OC at LRL |
| Tap In Formation | 250-1 | 200-1 | *4-5 | 9th Alw OC at KEE |
| I'm Wide Awake (g) | 300-1 | 175-1 | *4-5 | 5th Clmg at CD |
| Ten Days Later | 39-1 | 1st MSW at KEE | ||
| General Jim | 53-1 | 1st Alw at KEE | ||
| Cyclone Mischief | 68-1 | 1st MSW at CD | ||
| Andthewinneris | 84-1 | 1st Bourbon (G2) | ||
| Tyler's Tribe | 94-1 | 1st Iowa Cradle | ||
| Ohana Honor | 97-1 | 2nd MSW at BAQ | ||
| Expected Value | 121-1 | 1st MSW at BAQ | ||
| Rocket Can | 123-1 | 1st MSW at CD | ||
| Joking Way | 135-1 | 1st MSW at CD | ||
| Hayes Strike | 194-1 | 2nd Street Sense (G3) | ||
| All 2-year-old fillies | 37-1 | |||
| *All other 2yo males | 4-5 |