Kentucky Derby: Pass-fail grades for 9 handicapping trends

Kentucky Derby optics are ever changing. Mage’s 15-1 victory Saturday underscored that in ways that might have eroded some of the handicapping bulwark for America’s biggest race. It also validated some other betting optics.

Whether it was the Final Fractions Theory, which worked again, or certain speed-figure thresholds, which did not, the outcome of the race might have done more to muddle handicapping for Kentucky Derby 2024 than it did to clarify it.

Zipse: Mage, Forte have budding new rivalry.

With 362 days until the next one, ask the simple question. Did these handicapping prisms work?

Final Fractions Theory – yes

Mage finished the last three furlongs of the Florida Derby (G1) in 37.8 seconds. He ran the last furlong that day in 13.2 seconds.

The Final Fractions Theory pioneered by journalist and publicist Jennie Rees discovered that most Derby winners met one of two criteria in their last 1 1/8-mile prep. They either went the last eighth of a mile in no more than 13.0 seconds or the last three-eighths in no more than 38.0 seconds.

The key word in that sentence was “or.”

Mage qualified with his last three-eighths at Gulfstream Park but not his last eighth. No matter. That was good enough to make him the 30th cashable Derby winner in the last 35 years to meet one of those requirements. Cashable, by the way, meant Country House and not Maximum Security in 2019. It also meant Medina Spirit, not Mandaloun, in 2021.

The downside was the FFT was not a fine sieve this year. By the time all the scratches were made, all but one starter qualified under the 13-or-38 rule. Cyclone Mischief, the one who did not, came home last.

Beyer and TimeformUS minimums – no

Well, barely. According to Daily Racing Form, Mage’s best Beyer Speed Figure coming to Churchill Downs was the 94 he got for finishing second to Forte in the Florida Derby.

That meant 27 of the last 32 cashable winners in the Kentucky Derby had a Beyer of at least 95 coming into the race. It also meant three of the last five did not. Country House came into Louisville in 2019 with a best Beyer of 91. Rich Strike was no better than an 84 before his victory in 2022. Now there is Mage.

Barely.

The TimeformUS threshold says a Derby winner must have had a 115 or higher speed figure in one of his last three preps. Fourteen of the last 19 Derby winners had met that expectation before Saturday. Mage’s Florida Derby rating was 114. So make that 14 of 20, because Mage did not hit the number.

Barely.

100 Brisnet Speed Rating – yes

Mage became the 19th cashable Derby winner in the last 24 years to have come in with a triple-digit Brisnet rating. He got a 101 in the Florida Derby.

Can we get another barely?

Rich Strike had nothing better than a 95 last year. Medina Spirit cashed with only a 98 beforehand in 2021. Country House’s best was 95 coming into 2019. In the context of May renewals of the Derby, Mage got the Bris trend back on track for the first time since 2018.

The barely crop looks bountiful here.

Pacesetter or stalker – yes

His designation might have changed as a result of his winning rally from 16th place Saturday, but Mage went into the Derby with a Quirin Speed Points designation of E/P 5. That stands for early-presser or, in more common parlance, stalker.

Between 2014 and 2021, eight consecutive first-place Derby horses had E or E/P designations, meaning early or early-presser types. In other words, pacesetter and stalker.

The Quirin trend began to erode, though, when Country House was promoted over Maximum Security to cash as the 2019 Derby winner. Being a stone-cold closer, Country House had a Quirin designation of S 0.

In 2021, Medina Spirit crossed first with his E 7, but he would be supplanted the following winter when stewards declared Mandaloun, a P 7 mid-pack runner, the new winner.

Rich Strike, an S 0 type closer, blew up the Quirin theory last year. Even with Mage technically having an E/P 5 designation, the tactics he displayed in winning the Derby was more in line with the closing style that has cashed three times in the last five years.

Florida Derby and Fountain of Youth – yes

No prep race has produced more Kentucky Derby winners than the Florida Derby. Mage became the 25th.

What makes this all the more remarkable is that the America’s biggest race has been around since 1875. The Florida Derby did not begin until 1952. That means it has produced 35 percent of the Kentucky Derby winners in its relatively short history.

Granted, it had been six years since the last one, and Mage was the first Florida Derby also-ran to wear the roses since Go for Gin in 1994. But Saturday marked the seventh time in the 21st century that Gulfstream Park’s signature race in the spring was a bellwether for the first Saturday in May.

Mage also ended a drought for the Fountain of Youth (G2), which has produced 14 Kentucky Derby winners but had none since Orb in 2013. Mage was only the second Fountain of Youth finisher to win the Derby since 1996.

UAE Derby – same ol’ x 19

“This year will be different.”

Every year the UAE Derby (G2) sends a horse or two to the Kentucky Derby. And every time there are myopic predictions that this will be the one.

Derma Sotogake, who won the Dubai race in March, finished sixth Saturday.

There have been 19 horses who have come out of the UAE Derby to start in the Kentucky Derby. None finished better than fifth.

What is the definition of insanity?

Curse of Apollo – no

Apollo and Justify, right? Mage just joined the list of Derby winners who did not race at age 2.

Instead of pointing out there were 136 years between Apollo and Justify, how about remembering there have been two such winners in the last six runnings of the Derby?

Because horses are being raced to breed rather than being bred to race, this might not be such a rarity anymore.

Winter-book jinx – yes

Churchill Downs stopped updating its list of winter-book favorites around the time Las Vegas stopped having only one casino take futures action for the Derby.

Picking up where it left off, though, since Spectacular Bid in 1979, only one New Year’s Day betting favorite in Nevada has cashed on the first Saturday in May. That was Street Sense in 2007.

On Jan. 1, Arabian Knight was 10-1 at Caesars Sportsbook, and Forte was 13-1 at Circa Sports. Neither of those two shortest-priced horses even made it to the Derby.

In 2021, Corniche was the 6-1 favorite at Caesars at William Hill. He not only did not get into the Derby, he did not race again until that summer. He got hurt finishing last in the Amsterdam (G2) at Saratoga and was retired to stud.

Post 17 drought – yes

By the time all the scratches were done, Mandarin Hero got stuck with the one post position that never has produced a Kentucky Derby winner.

His 12th-place finish meant that of the 44 horses who have started from there, only three have been in-the-money finishers, none better than second-place Forty Niner in 1988.

At least some things about the Kentucky Derby are reliable. History says there is a 99.3 percent chance it will be run for the 150th time next May 4.

Only 362 days to go.