Kentucky Derby: Do these 8 handicapping trends hold true?
Some well-worn handicapping trends worked again with Mystik Dan’s 18-1 upset triumph in Kentucky Derby 2024.
The Final Fractions Theory, Beyer Speed Figure and Brisnet Speed Rating thresholds that applied to most winners this century proved reliable. The Quirin Speed Points paradigm remained ever-shifting. One sure toss worked again, barely.
Mystik Dan races to 18-1 upset in Kentucky Derby.
Let these pass-fail results marinate, then, for the next 362 days.
Final Fractions Theory, pass
When he came in third in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby, Mystik Dan covered the last furlong in 12.7 seconds and the last three in 37.8.
That meant 31 of the last 36 cashable winners met the criterion of finishing their last 1 1/8-mile prep with a closing eighth of a mile no slower than 13.0 seconds or final three-eighths in 38.0 or less. Cashable meant promoted winner Country House in 2019 and the eventually disqualified Medina Spirit in 2021.
Pioneered by longtime writer and publicist Jennie Rees, the FFT was a better eliminator than it was in 2023, when only one horse failed to meet the standard. This year it ruled out seven of the Derby starters, none of whom finished better than T O Password in fifth. At 11-1, Just a Touch was the most highly regarded of those who missed the FFT cut. He finished last.
Beyer and Brisnet, pass
Only 5 of 18 Derby starters who had speed numbers assigned to their prep races met the minimums that have worked for more than a generation. Mystik Dan was one of them.
His eight-length win Feb. 3 in the muddy running of the Southwest Stakes (G3) at Oaklawn was worthy of a 101 Beyer, according to Daily Racing Form, and a differently scaled 101 from Brisnet. Those meant Mystik Dan became the 28th cashable Derby winner in the last 33 years who carried in a best Beyer of at least 95, and he was the 20th in the last 25 who had at least a 100 Brisnet rating.
Runner-up Sierra Leone and fourth-place Catching Freedom also met both criteria. Third-place Forever Young probably met at least one of them, but like fifth-place T O Password, he was not assigned formal numbers. That was because prep races in Dubai and Japan fall outside the Beyer and Brisnet realms of the U.S. and Canada.
Post-time favorite Fierceness, who finished 15th, and Just a Touch were the biggest fails for the Beyer 95 and Brisnet 100 cutlines.
Pacesetter or stalker, fail
Quirin Speed Points always were meant to predict pace. For a while, they also were good in parsing potential Derby winners. Not anymore.
Mystik Dan carried a P 3 designation into Saturday’s race. P stands for presser, and the 3 means he was bound to be in mid-pack but closer to the rear than the front going through the first turn. Instead, Brian Hernandez Jr. had the eventual winner in eighth going past the wire the first time and sixth coming out of the first turn. That means the P should become an E/P, as in early presser, the next time Mystik Dan races.
Since the Quirin formula is based on hindsight, Mystik Dan’s victory marked the third time in the last six years that the cashable winner did not have a pre-race rating of E or E/P, meaning early pace or stalking. It was similar with Mage last year, when he went from an E/P 5 before the Derby to an S 3 for the Preakness.
Horses who had E or E/P designations had been the cashable winners five years in a row from 2014 to 2018. If Maximum Security had not been disqualified in 2019, it would have been every Derby from 2014 to 2021.
UAE Derby toss, pass
Make it 0-for-20 for UAE Derby (G2) graduates coming to the Kentucky Derby. If not for two noses, though, that drought would be over.
By coming in an oh-so-close third, Forever Young had the best result in Kentucky of any graduate from Dubai. The previous best was Master of Hounds, the 2011 UAE Derby runner-up who finished fifth at Churchill Downs.
Among points preps, the 23-year-old Remington Springboard Mile takes over as having the longest history without producing a top-three finisher in the Derby.
Winter-book toss, pass
Between its own retroactive survey before 2012 and the listing of Las Vegas futures since, the Kentucky Derby media guide shows Jan. 1 favorites dating to 1979. Only Spectacular Bid that year and Street Sense in 2007 went on to win the roses.
This year Fierceness and Dornoch were best-priced in Las Vegas at 15-1 at the dawn of 2024. At least they made it into the race, which was a better fate than it was for last year’s favorites. Forte and Arabian Knight never got to the gate.
February KDFW toss, pass
The pari-mutuel Kentucky Derby Future Wager has been run every year since 1999. The individual February favorite has failed to win the Derby 25 of those years. The only exception, in 2006, was when there was no February pool.
Add Sierra Leone to that mix. After he splashed to victory in the Risen Star (G2), he closed as the top individual choice at 6-1 in pool 4 of the KDFW.
Four of the previous six all-others options were Derby winners from the February wager. Not so this year. Mystik Dan was an individual choice, closing at 21-1.
Anyone but post 17, pass
Stronghold, who wore number 18, moved into the dreaded post 17 when Encino was scratched last week. His seventh-place result made horses coming out of that stall 0-for-45 in Derby history.
Post 14 has not fared much better. Domestic Product broke from there and finished 13th, bringing up a 63rd consecutive year of failure. Carry Back was the most recent winner from 14, which used to be the last post before the gap between gates. That practice ended when the 20-stall behemoth was christened in 2020.
Conversely, Mystik Dan became the sixth winner to come out of post 3. He was the first since Real Quiet in 1998. That also was where Two Phil’s in 2023 and Epicenter in 2022 began their runs to second-place results.
Dosage index, really?
A reader asked for this, perhaps facetiously, in the comments beneath the 2023 version of this story. Since it was low-hanging fruit in the data world, why not?
The quick and dirty explanation of the dosage index is that it uses pedigree to measure a horse’s balance between speed and stamina. The higher the number, the faster he may be at the expense of his ability to stay a distance of ground.
Between 1940 and 1990, every Kentucky Derby winner had a dosage index under 4.00. Then in the ’90s, as racehorses were being bred more for speed than stamina, the trend eroded. The optic that came into being in the early 20th century came to feel as old-timey as a phone book.
Nevertheless, Mystik Dan has a 3.00 dosage index, so he fit the winning template as had the other six winners since 2018. So, too, did 17 of the other starters Saturday. The only exceptions were fourth-place Catching Freedom at 5.67 and, gulp, 15th-place Fierceness at 5.00.
Now you tell me.