Kentucky Derby & Oaks: Who has work to do in final preps?

Photo: Eclipse Sportswire & Churchill Downs - edited composite

Half the stalls in the gate for Kentucky Derby 2026 are spoken for after Commandment and Renegade soared to the top of the qualifying standings Saturday. Their Grade 1 scores in the Florida Derby and Arkansas Derby got them win-and-you’re-in berths.

The Puma and Silent Tactic also earned their spots with second-place finishes in those major preps, which were worth 100-50-25-15-10 points to the top five. Connections for UAE Derby (G2) top two Wonder Dean and Six Speed and Fukuryu victor Danon Bourbon accepted the three international invitations. They joined Fulleffort, Emerging Market and Pavlovian, who already cleared the mathematical hurdle.

Photo finish: Commandment prevails in Florida Derby.

While they were putting their Derby plans in ink, Risen Star (G2) winner Paladin became the first horse with a berth to exit. Trainer Chad Brown told Daily Racing Form it was because of an ankle injury that happened in Saturday training.

The cutline was adjusted from 60 to 61 after it was pointed out that horses like Stark Contrast, who finished second last week in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3), could come back in the next two weeks to search for needed points. Realistically, though, Incredibolt and Golden Tempo probably are in with 60 points each.

Historically, no horse with at least 46 points has failed to get an invitation in the 13 previous years of this qualifying system. There is, however, a logjam at 50. The math says as many as 24 horses could clear that number and join the three overseas colts.

What math does not say is how many more horses will join Paladin on the sideline. Seven of the horses who qualified in 2025 were not among the 19 who started in the Derby. There have been at least four such exits each year since 2021.

Class President, Iron Honor and Potente, all expected to race in Saturday stakes, need top-four finishes to get to 65 or fifths to get to 60. Even if they miss out on more points, their current 50 may be enough to get into the Derby starting gate. The rest of the horses being mentioned for starts this weekend need either wins or seconds.

The Blue Grass (G1) at Keeneland, the Santa Anita Derby (G1) and the Wood Memorial (G2) at Aqueduct, all Saturday, are the last three major preps on the calendar. Each winner will get an invitation to run for the roses May 2. The Lexington (G3) on April 11 at Keeneland, the last points prep, carries 20% of the value of the major stakes.

Kentucky Derby 2026        
Clinched, 61+ Rank Points *Earnings Possible next start
Commandment 1st 150.00 $943,020  
Renegade 2nd 125.00 $1,002,500  
Fulleffort 3rd 110.00 $507,900  
The Puma 4th 106.00 $428,000  
Silent Tactic 5th 100.00 $1,020,130  
Emerging Market 6th 100.00 $600,000  
Pavlovian 7th 70.00 $527,000  
Danon Bourbon 18th Jpn $221,246  
Wonder Dean 19th E-M $725,172  
Six Speed 20th E-M $314,366  
History says yes, 46+        
Incredibolt 8th 60.00 $424,570  
Golden Tempo 9th 60.00 $300,000  
Stark Contrast 11th 50.00 $439,900  
Chief Wallabee 12th 50.00 $175,800  
Chip Honcho 15th 49.00 $190,000  
Need 4th to clinch        
Class President 10th 50.00 $569,700 Blue Grass (G1), FG
Iron Honor 13th 50.00 $165,000 Wood Mem. (G2), AQU
Potente 14th 50.00 $120,000 SA Derby (G1), SA
Need 2nd to clinch        
Further Ado 21st 35.00 $312,470 Blue Grass (G1), FG
Robusta 25th 25.00 $40,500 SA Derby (G1), SA
Intrepido (r) 26th 23.00 $260,000 SA Derby (G1), SA
Express Kid 28th 20.00 $308,800 SA Derby (G1), SA
Talk to Me Jimmy 29th 20.00 $110,000 Wood Mem. (G2), AQU
Great White (g) 30th 20.00 $107,440 Blue Grass (G1), FG
Bravaro 31st 20.00 $68,700 Wood Mem. (G2), AQU
Buetane 32nd 16.00 $212,500 Wood Mem. (G2), AQU
Secured Freedom 33th 16.00 $24,000 SA Derby (G1), SA
Napoleon Solo 34th 15.00 $286,520 Wood Mem. (G2), AQU
So Happy 35th 15.00 $144,000 SA Derby (G1), SA
Needs 2nd & nom.        
Right to Party +   15.00 $36,000 Wood Mem. (G2), AQU
Need win to clinch        
Talkin 39th 10.00 $111,750 Blue Grass (G1), FG
Ottinho 42nd 6.00 $24,000 Wood Mem. (G2), AQU
Cherokee Nation 44th 3.00 $13,805 SA Derby (G1), SA
Civil Liberty 45th 2.00 $54,000 Wood Mem. (G2), AQU
Courting 46th 2.00 $20,000 Wood Mem. (G2), AQU
Start the Ride 47th 0.00 $500 SA Derby (G1), SA
Creole Chrome 48th 0.00 $0 Blue Grass or Wood
Reagan’s Honor 49th 0.00 $0 Blue Grass (G1), KEE
Albus 50th 0.00 $0 To be announced
Need win & nom.        
Taj Mahal +   0.00 $60,000 Wood Mem. (G2), AQU
Red Zone Runner +   0.00 $54,400 Wood Mem. (G2), AQU
Not yet        
Universe 16th 38.00 $244,650  
Grittiness 17th 36.00 $150,000  
Need help        
Nearly 22nd 35.00 $220,450  
Litmus Test 23rd 34.00 $429,688  
Crown the Buckeye +   28.00 $73,500  
Blackout Time 24th 25.00 $237,875  
Taptastic +   25.00 $138,750  
Bricklin 27th 21.00 $135,250  
Wayne’s Law +   20.00 $134,700  
Confessional 36th 15.00 $55,000  
Brant 37th 14.00 $364,000  
Carson Street 38th 11.00 $35,000  
Redland Rebels 40th 10.00 $89,400  
Baytown Dreamer 41st 7.00 $171,109  
Cannoneer 43rd 4.00 $12,375  
* non-restricted stakes        
+ not TC nominated        
E-M Euro-Mideast berths        
Jpn Japan berth        
g - gelding        
r - ridgling        

Oaks has 4 or 5 spots to fill

Four or five? Which is it?

The Kentucky Oaks (G1) cutline, which was reported at 57 last week, also was tweaked for the possibility of fillies wheeling back. As unlikely as that may be, mathematical certitude has no room for gray area.

So make that cutline 60 with a tiebreaker. If there were a deadlock for the 14th and final spot in the Oaks gate, only the top earner in non-restricted graded stakes would get in without a maybe. Conveniently, no filly has 60 points right now.

Right now this adjustment affects only one horse. Bottle of Rouge theoretically could be knocked out with her 57 1/2 points, but it would mean a whirlwind of unlikely circumstances. Think of three fillies with zero points finishing first and second in the Ashland (G1) at Keeneland on Friday and in the Gazelle (G3) and the Santa Anita Oaks (G2) on Saturday. And then throw in, say, Kenny McPeek starting Taken by the Wind after she finished third Friday in the Fantasy (G2).

Nine horses definitely are in the Kentucky Oaks with this week’s addition of top finishers Counting Stars and Search Party from the Fantasy at Oaklawn plus Prom Queen, My Miss Mo and She Be Smooth from the Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2). Bottle of Rouge would make 10, especially since no fit horse with at least 51 points ever has been denied an Oaks berth.

Paradise, who is expected to start for trainer Brad Cox in the Gazelle, would need at least a fourth-place performance Saturday to get above 51 and at least a third to climb over 60. Zany, who Todd Pletcher is expected to start in the Ashland, and Meaning, who may go for Michael McCarthy in the Santa Anita Oaks, need to finish third and maybe second.

Entries will be taken Sunday for the Gazelle, Monday for the Santa Anita Oaks and Tuesday for the Ashland, the final Oaks preps of 2025-26.

Kentucky Oaks 2026        
Clinched, 60+ Rank Points *Earnings Possible next start
Life of Joy 1st 122.00 $401,420  
Bella Ballerina 2nd 110.00 $498,440  
Counting Stars 3rd 100.00 $834,156  
Prom Queen 4th 100.00 $151,900  
Explora 5th 95.00 $1,016,250  
My Miss Mo 6th 75.00 $113,200  
Search Party 7th 67.50 $409,025  
Luv Your Neighbor 8th 65.00 $151,500 SA Oaks (G2), SA
She Be Smooth 9th 65.00 $146,020  
History says yes, 51+        
Bottle of Rouge 10th 57.50 $517,000  
Needs 3rd to clinch        
Paradise 16th 37.50 $110,000 Gazelle (G3), AQU
Need 2nd to clinch        
Zany 20th 30.00 $197,500 Ashland (G1), KEE
Meaning 21st 26.00 $160,000 SA Oaks (G2), SA
Sneaky Good 23rd 21.00 $143,925 Ashland (G1), KEE
Nycon 26th 18.75 $69,700 Gazelle (G3), AQU
Percy’s Bar 30th 14.00 $503,620 Ashland (G1), KEE
Pashmina 31st 13.00 $41,500 Gazelle (G3), AQU
Need win to clinch        
Two Bits 32nd 10.00 $110,250 Gazelle (G3), AQU
Omaha Bay 33rd 10.00 $9,800 Ashland (G1), KEE
French Friction 41st 0.00 $81,000 Ashland (G1), KEE
Always a Runner 42nd 0.00 $0 Gazelle (G3), AQU
Slow Kara 43rd 0.00 $0 Gazelle (G3), AQU
Needs win & nom.        
Hollybygolly +   0.00 $24,800 Ashland (G1), KEE
Not yet        
Lorelei Lei 11th 50.00 $179,040  
Labwah 12th 50.00 $130,704  
Forced Entry 13th 50.00 $60,000  
Taken by the Wind 14th 48.75 $145,460  
Need help        
Dazzling Dame 15th 40.75 $263,525  
On Time Girl 17th 35.00 $273,745  
Lovely Grey 18th 35.00 $93,650  
Bank Shot 19th 31.00 $32,000  
Newtown Pike 22nd 25.00 $98,800  
Resist 24th 21.00 $46,200  
Hit Parade 25th 19.50 $86,160  
Just Singing 27th 18.00 $71,200  
Betty’s Pearl 28th 15.00 $12,250  
French Blue 29th 15.00 $12,000  
Interstatelovesong +   11.25 $51,000  
Baffle +   11.25 $27,500  
Touch of Magic +   10.00 $53,900  
Nasti Z +   10.00 $7,350  
Piney Woods 34th 10.00 $6,000  
Current Yield 35th 7.50 $12,000  
Rileytole +   5.00 $116,000  
Haute Diva 36th 5.00 $109,690  
Go to Girl +   5.00 $58,483  
Cashed 37th 5.00 $42,500  
Cee Drew 38th 5.00 $2,500  
Blazing Brat 39th 3.75 $35,500  
Concurrently +   3.00 $30,000  
Nimah 40th 3.00 $24,000  
Revera +   2.00 $88,024  
Have Faith +   2.00 $33,000  
Steer Clear +   2.00 $24,000  
* non-restricted stakes        
+ not nominated        

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