Kentucky Derby & Oaks: Ins, outs & scenarios to clinch

Make it 11 horses who mathematically have clinched their places in Kentucky Derby 2024. It held steady at four who are certain of getting invitations to the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks. The numbers will rise considerably Saturday after the last of the major points preps for both races are run at Aqueduct, Keeneland and Santa Anita.

The list of Derby invitations grew after entries were taken for the Blue Grass (G1) at Keeneland, the Wood Memorial (G2) at Aqueduct and the Santa Anita Derby (G1), knocking out outsiders who will not be in those Saturday races that are win-and-you’re-in qualifiers.

Stakes Tracker: Entries and results for Kentucky Derby preps.

The cutline dropped to 60 points to be assured of one of the 20 places in the gate for the 150th Derby. That meant Dornoch will get in regardless of how he finishes in the Blue Grass, not that there was any realistic worry that he would miss out on the May 4 classic.

Morning-line favorites Sierra Leone in the Blue Grass and Deterministic in the Wood need to finish in the top five Saturday to be assured mathematically of getting their tickets to Kentucky. Even if they fall short, though, they already may have enough points to run for the roses.

The same goes for Catalytic, the Florida Derby (G1) runner-up whose 50 points would be enough to qualify most years. The complicating new wrinkle this year is that the point value of second-place finishes was increased by 25 percent from 2023. That means a runner-up result this weekend will be worth 50 points rather than 40, making that magic number less than automatic right now.

A change of course for connections of Endlessly also provided new grist for the qualifying mill this week. After first saying they would point the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) winner to the turf, Thoroughbred Daily News was first to report owner John Amerman was leaning toward going in the Derby.

That was offset by trainer Brad Cox, who told Daily Racing Form that he would keep Timberlake focused on shorter races after a fourth-place disappointment last week in the 1 1/8-mile Arkansas Derby (G1).

Still looming as a distinct possibility, even a probability, is that Imagination and Wynstock will chew up as many as 150 qualifying points and spit them out with top-five finishes Saturday in the Santa Anita Derby. Since they are from the barn of ineligible trainer Bob Baffert, they are not allowed to race in the Kentucky Derby. Any points they earn would vanish, and the cutline would drop as a result.

For now there are 18 berths available for horses coming from the Kentucky Derby’s main trail. One more is likely to be added after Saturday’s Cardinal Stakes is run at Chelmsford City, England. None of the eight horses entered for that decisive race on the separate Europe road to the Derby is nominated for the Triple Crown, meaning that one invitation is almost certain to be rejected.

The owners of T O Password, who won the Fukuryu Stakes, accepted the berth that came with the Japan road to the Derby, meaning a maximum 19 horses will advance from the main trail based mostly in the U.S.

Even after Saturday’s races, which are worth 100-50-25-15-10 points to the top five eligible finishers, there will be one last chance next week to get into the Derby. That comes with the Lexington Stakes (G3), a 20-10-6-4-2 race April 13 at Keeneland.

Oh, yes. There also is the attrition factor, which no math formula can gauge. Ask anyone who had a Forte futures ticket last year.

With points and earnings reported by Churchill Downs and compiled from Equibase data, these are the current clinch scenarios for Kentucky Derby 2024:

4 down, 10 to go for the Oaks

Tarifa, Power Squeeze, Thorpedo Anna and West Omaha are still the only fillies mathematically certain of getting their places in the 14-horse gate for the May 3 running of the Kentucky Oaks.

Jody’s Pride and her connections probably have nothing to worry about, since they are only one point below the cutline of 66 points and she can take care of business with a top-five finish Friday in the Ashland (G1) at Keeneland. She would have clinched already if not for the unlikely possibility she could wind up in a tie on a lofty cutline with other horses who also could have 65 points but more money from non-restricted stakes.

The more likely scenario is that more than a few fillies could be tied for 50 points with the need to invoke the earnings tiebreaker there.

Morning-line favorites Impel in the Ashland and Life Talk in Saturday’s Gazelle (G3) at Aqueduct have to win for certain entry into the Oaks. Realistically, second-place finishes also should get them into the run for the lilies.

Kinza, the likely favorite to win the Santa Anita Oaks (G2) on Saturday, is trained by Baffert and is ineligible to race at Churchill Downs. She could eat up points and lower the cutline.

These are the current clinch scenarios for Kentucky Oaks 2024: