Kentucky Derby guide: Odds, analysis and PPs
The first Saturday in May has arrived, and Kentucky Derby 2024 is on the horizon. A field of 20 will test their mettle at 1 1/4-miles on the Churchill Downs oval in the 150th Run for the Roses.
The Kentucky Derby goes as race no. 12 on a 14-race program under the twin spires at 6:57 p.m. EDT. The race will be broadcast live on NBC.
Check out Horse Racing Nation’s free past performances page today for downloadable PPs for the Kentucky Derby and more courtesy of our partners at Brisnet.
We also have Super Screener picks and analysis for the Kentucky Derby as well as recent top speed figures for each contender.
Kentucky Derby best speed figures
| Post | Horse | ML | Beyer | TimeformUS | HRN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dornoch | 20-1 | 91 | 116 | 98 |
| 2 | Sierra Leone | 3-1 | 98 | 117 | 103 |
| 3 | Mystik Dan | 20-1 | 101 | 117 | 104 |
| 4 | Catching Freedom | 8-1 | 87 | 112 | 91 |
| 5 | Catalytic | 30-1 | 97 | 114 | 95 |
| 6 | Just Steel | 20-1 | 95 | 119 | 100 |
| 7 | Honor Marie | 20-1 | 96 | 113 | 96 |
| 8 | Just a Touch | 10-1 | 96 | 121 | 103 |
| 9 | Encino | SCR | SCR | SCR | SCR |
| 10 | T O Password | 30-1 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 11 | Forever Young | 10-1 | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| 12 | Track Phantom | 20-1 | 94 | 114 | 97 |
| 13 | West Saratoga | 50-1 | 85 | 111 | 88 |
| 14 | Endlessly | 30-1 | 91 | 114 | 103 |
| 15 | Domestic Product | 30-1 | 87 | 102 | 94 |
| 16 | Grand Mo the First | 50-1 | 87 | 111 | 97 |
| 17 | Fierceness | 5-2 | 110 | 126 | 107 |
| 18 | Stronghold | 20-1 | 89 | 114 | 93 |
| 19 | Resilience | 20-1 | 90 | 113 | 97 |
| 20 | Society Man | 50-1 | 87 | 110 | 95 |
| 21 | Epic Ride | 30-1 | 90 | 117 | 96 |
| 22 | Mugatu | SCR | SCR | SCR | SCR |
Looking at the pace
Just a Touch and Track Phantom should have the lead around the clubhouse turn in the Kentucky Derby, with Dornoch close behind breaking from the rail.
T O Password and Forever Young are not part of the data set as they ship in from overseas, but the former has raced on the lead in his only two starts to date while the latter has generally been a mid-pack runner.
If Sierra Leone, Catching Freedom or Honor Marie win, they'll have likely passed a whole host of horses in the stretch.
Pace projector appears courtesy of TimeformUS.
HRN picks for the Kentucky Derby
The Kentucky Derby Super Screener is available now. Get the insight you need to crush the Kentucky Derby and the Churchill Saturday undercard.
Ed DeRosa's Kentucky Derby fair odds are playing lucky numbers 7 and 11 in the Run for the Roses, as he feels Honor Marie and Forever Young are offering the best value on the board. DeRosa also used Horse Racing Nation's AI Matching Tool to find superfecta keys for the Kentucky Derby.
Brian Zipse ranked the long shots in the Kentucky Derby and gives Honor Marie a fair chance to factor. Check out what Zipse and Matt Shifman had to say in their final picks for the Kentucky Derby.
Pace makes the race, and Scott Shapiro took a look at how the Kentucky Derby pace might play out. Shapiro also shares the three long shots he's using to spice up the Derby superfecta.
The Derby always has its fair share of human interest stories, and Just Steel is one of the better ones as Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lukas gives a leg up to Keith Asmussen, son of Steve, the winningest trainer in North America. Matt Stahl has the details on the Just Steel story.
West Saratoga might have Just Steel beat, however. Ron Flatter spoke with Larry Demeritte, the first Black trainer in 35 years to saddle a Kentucky Derby entrant. Tom Pedulla has the scoop on West Saratoga jockey Jesus Castanon, who hasn't competed in the Derby since Shackleford ran fourth in 2011.
For more information on the jockeys in the 2024 Kentucky Derby, check out Flatter's detailed profiles.
Flatter also spoke with Forever Young trainer Yoshito Yahagi and T O Password conditioner Daisuke Takayanagi as they try to get Japan on the board in the Run for the Roses.
Padraic Manocchio sized up the field from top to bottom in his Kentucky Derby order of finish predictions. Manocchio also provides his top three value plays for the Derby Day undercard at Churchill Downs.
Laurie Ross dug into the pedigrees of each Kentucky Derby contender. Find out if your selections made the grade.
It's a crowded edition of the Ron Flatter Racing Pod, and Chris Fallica of FOX Sports is just one of several handicappers offering his Kentucky Derby advice.
Here's the field for the Kentucky Derby (G1):