Kentucky Derby: Fractions, figs boil down to 1 winner ... maybe

May we be candid here? Rather than follow every rule to leave the reader hanging until the very end, let’s just admit right now that Fierceness analytically is the most likely winner of Kentucky Derby 2024.

In this case, though, the process is more of a story than the Captain Obvious ending. Learned handicappers may pick up something along the way that either validates a contrary theory or blows it up altogether. Peeking to the very end, the conclusion really is contentious.

Free Kentucky Derby past performances from Brisnet.

The prisms are time-tested. They start with the Final Fractions Theory espoused by longtime turf writer turned publicist Jennie Rees. They go through speed numbers. They are punctuated by the pace-predicting Quirin Speed Points.

That road might lead to Fierceness. They key word there was might, because plenty of other win candidates will emerge. So will cogent questions about this analytical trek.

Fast fractions

This is all about how fast a horse finished his last prep race. The better the times for the final furlong and three furlongs, the more likely he appears to be poised for success going that extra eighth of a mile Saturday at Churchill Downs.

After examining the chart from each horse’s final prep, the cutline is set at 13.0 seconds for his last furlong or 38.0 seconds for his last three. If that last race was not 1 1/8 miles, then some extrapolating had to be done to try to balance all comparisons.

Including Mage last year, 30 of the last 35 cashable Derby winners checked one of those boxes. Cashable includes Country House in 2019 and Medina Spirit in 2021.

The Final Fractions Theory was compiled this year for America’s Best Racing by J. Keeler Johnson, a frequent contributor to Horse Racing Nation. It eliminates Dornoch, Catalytic, Just a Touch, T O Password, Grand Mo the First, Stronghold, Epic Ride and also-eligible Mugatu.

Thirteen horses were left after that first step.

Brisnet triples

Mage’s 101 for finishing second in the Grade 1 Florida Derby made him the 19th cashable Derby winner in the last 24 years to carry a triple-digit Brisnet Speed Rating into the run for the roses.

This year that hurdle tripped up only eight of the 21 extant Derby entrants. Of the 13 still standing, four already were knocked out by the Final Fractions Theory. West Saratoga, Endlessly and Domestic Product made it through the fractions but missed on the speed rating.

That left nine horses who passed both tests. Forever Young probably would have made it 10, but his UAE Derby (G2) victory came in Dubai, where speed ratings are not applied.

Better Beyers

Technically, this optic did not work last year, but it was close. Handicappers could be excused for picking nits, especially if they cashed.

Of the Derby’s last 32 cashable winners, 27 came in with a best Beyer Speed Figure of at least 95, according to Daily Racing Form. Mage was a marginal exception, because he had a 94 coming out of his runner-up finish in the Grade 1 Florida Derby.

Only seven of the 21 remaining entrants this year bring 95s or better to Churchill Downs. Among those who do not are Resilience, Society Man and Track Phantom, whose 94 looks like something we have seen before.

Again, Dubai is a Beyer-free zone, although Forever Young probably would have earned something in the low 90s, according to Daily Racing Form’s Marcus Hersh. That means he presumably missed this cut.

After the first three steps, six horses were left. Catching Freedom, Honor Marie, Just Steel, Mystik Dan, Sierra Leone and, of course, Fierceness.

Curious Quirins

Quirin Speed Points are shown in Brisnet past performances as alphanumeric expressions that use previous races to project how horses will fit into the early pace of their next races. The letters indicate where a horse may be midway through the race. Higher numbers reflect more early speed into the first turn.

This is where Fierceness separates himself from the other five Derby horses who were not victims so far in this process of elimination. It also is historically the flimsiest parameter.

Mage became the eighth cashable winner in the previous 10 years to have carried an E or an E/P designation into the Kentucky Derby. E means early speed. E/P means an early-pressing stalker.

But wait. Anyone who watched last year’s Derby knows Mage was third from the rear in the first turn and had only four horses beaten after a half-mile. As a result, his Quirin Speed Points went from E/P 5 before the race to S 3 after with the S standing for a sustaining closer.

If the word cashable is removed from the Derby pattern, then Mandaloun’s P 7, meaning a mid-pack presser, would replace Medina Spirit’s E 7 in 2021. Country House’s S 0 in 2019 already was included. If Mage’s Quirin could have included the style he truly displayed early last May, then four of the last five now-official Derby winners have come from off the pace.

Using that more recent trend, Fierceness actually would be eliminated, and off-the-pace horses Sierra Leone, Mystik Dan, Catching Freedom, Just Steel and Honor Marie would supplant him.

Maybe exercises like this are why Twain or Disraeli or one of their contemporaries said there are three kinds of lies. Lies, damned lies and statistics. One wonders if they were horseplayers.