Kentucky Derby: Fixed odds vs. pari-mutuels for 162 horses
Even though there were no points preps last week, value was rewritten in the futures market for Kentucky Derby 2024, especially for some of the shortest-priced contenders.
Pari-mutuel bettors who played the national Kentucky Derby Future Wager may have found value with Timberlake, Dornoch, Conquest Warrior, Track Phantom and Honor Marie. All five closed Sunday at odds longer in KDFW pool 5 than the best fixed prices available Wednesday morning in Nevada.
Sierra Leone closes as pool 5 favorite in KDFW.
Timberlake, the winner of the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes, finished at 12-1 in the pari-mutuels, better than his best Las Vegas price of 10-1 at Caesars Sportsbook. Fountain of Youth (G2) victor Dornoch was 13-1 in the KDFW compared with more than 8-1, plus 850 to be exact, at Circa Sports. Allowance winner Conquest Warrior was 16-1 nationally and 12-1 at Circa. Track Phantom, the morning-line favorite for Saturday’s Louisiana Derby (G2), was 23-1 in the KDFW and 10-1 at Caesars. Honor Marie, also entered for the Louisiana Derby, was 35-1 in the pari-mutuels and 30-1 at Caesars.
Sierra Leone, who splashed to victory last month in the Risen Star (G2) at Fair Grounds, remained the consensus favorite. He was 8-1 at Circa and 5-1 at Caesars on Wednesday morning. He closed at 7-1 in the KDFW.
Of the 162 individual horses still in the futures market, 25 are entered in stakes Saturday. Twenty-two of these will be in either the Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds or the Jeff Ruby Stakes (G3) at Turfway Park.
Including the mutuel field of all 3-year-olds other than the 39 listed in the KDFW, the full futures market for the Kentucky Derby is shown here in order of each choice’s best odds:
| Kentucky Derby 2024 | Caesars | Circa | KDFW | Trainer |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sierra Leone | 5-1 | 8-1 | 7-1 | Chad Brown |
| All other 3-year-olds* | 11-1 | |||
| Timberlake | 10-1 | +850 | 12-1 | Brad Cox |
| Dornoch | 7-1 | +850 | 13-1 | Danny Gargan |
| Fierceness | 12-1 | 14-1 | 9-1 | Todd Pletcher |
| Forever Young | 15-1 | 10-1 | 12-1 | Yoshito Yahagi |
| Conquest Warrior | 9-1 | 12-1 | 16-1 | Shug McGaughey |
| Deterministic | 20-1 | 19-1 | 16-1 | Christophe Clément |
| Speak Easy | 20-1 | Todd Pletcher | ||
| Track Phantom | 10-1 | 9-1 | 23-1 | Steve Asmussen |
| Victory Avenue | 24-1 | Gustavo Delgado | ||
| Mystik Dan | 30-1 | 25-1 | 16-1 | Kenny McPeek |
| Honor Marie | 30-1 | 25-1 | 35-1 | Whit Beckman |
| Just a Touch | 25-1 | 40-1 | 31-1 | Brad Cox |
| Hall of Fame | 15-1 | 45-1 | 37-1 | Steve Asmussen |
| Domestic Product | 45-1 | 20-1 | 33-1 | Chad Brown |
| Agate Road | 45-1 | 30-1 | 38-1 | Todd Pletcher |
| Catching Freedom | 18-1 | 50-1 | 26-1 | Brad Cox |
| Hades (g) | 30-1 | 50-1 | 20-1 | Joe Orseno |
| Tuscan Sky | 65-1 | 50-1 | 36-1 | Todd Pletcher |
| Stronghold | 45-1 | 75-1 | 48-1 | Phil D’Amato |
| Liberal Arts | 75-1 | 70-1 | 45-1 | Robbie Medina |
| Air of Defiance | 75-1 | Brad Cox | ||
| Drip | 75-1 | Whit Beckman | ||
| Parchment Party | 75-1 | Bill Mott | ||
| Book’em Danno (g) | 25-1 | 80-1 | Derek Ryan | |
| Rhyme Schemes | 85-1 | Norm Casse | ||
| Stretch Ride | 85-1 | Dale Romans | ||
| Knightsbridge | 22-1 | 100-1 | Bill Mott | |
| Seize the Grey | 100-1 | 50-1 | 33-1 | D. Wayne Lukas |
| Encino | 100-1 | 58-1 | Brad Cox | |
| Pirate | 100-1 | Todd Pletcher | ||
| Common Defense | 125-1 | 100-1 | 62-1 | Kenny McPeek |
| Otello | 75-1 | 125-1 | Christophe Clément | |
| Fifth Avenue | 125-1 | Riley Mott | ||
| General Partner | 125-1 | Chad Brown | ||
| Goldbrick | 125-1 | Bret Calhoun | ||
| Molly’s Town (g) | 125-1 | Genaro García | ||
| Nutella Fella | 125-1 | Gary Contessa | ||
| Pass the Hat | 125-1 | Tom Amoss | ||
| Rocketeer | 125-1 | Brad Cox | ||
| El Grande O | 100-1 | 125-1 | 138-1 | Linda Rice |
| No More Time | 60-1 | 60-1 | 144-1 | José D’Angelo |
| Snead | 28-1 | 150-1 | Brendan Walsh | |
| Nash | 30-1 | 150-1 | 105-1 | Brad Cox |
| Resilience | 40-1 | 150-1 | 128-1 | Bill Mott |
| Endlessly | 150-1 | 59-1 | Michael McCarthy | |
| Tuscan Gold | 150-1 | 81-1 | Chad Brown | |
| Change of Command | 100-1 | 150-1 | Shug McGaughey | |
| Coulditbemajic | 150-1 | Terry Brennan | ||
| Glengarry | 150-1 | Doug Anderson | ||
| Gold Sweep | 150-1 | Steve Asmussen | ||
| Normandy Hero | 150-1 | Rodolphe Brisset | ||
| Self Sufficient | 150-1 | Todd Pletcher | ||
| Union Roll | 150-1 | Todd Pletcher | ||
| Wilson Q | 150-1 | Doug O’Neill | ||
| Born Noble | 60-1 | 150-1 | 154-1 | Todd Pletcher |
| Balta | 175-1 | Paulo Lobo | ||
| Divieto | 175-1 | Antonio Sano | ||
| Edified | 175-1 | Steve Asmussen | ||
| Ramjet | 175-1 | Shozo Sasaki | ||
| Uncle Heavy | 125-1 | 200-1 | 80-1 | Butch Reid |
| Top Conor | 200-1 | 98-1 | Chad Brown | |
| Epic Ride | 200-1 | 189-1 | John Ennis | |
| Commissioner Dan | 200-1 | Pavel Matejka | ||
| General Ledger | 200-1 | Saffie Joseph Jr. | ||
| Going Mobile | 200-1 | Steve Knapp | ||
| Mary’s Boy Bolt | 200-1 | Mick Ruis | ||
| Private Desire | 200-1 | Todd Pletcher | ||
| Risk It | 200-1 | Steve Asmussen | ||
| Roar Ready | 200-1 | Ruben Sierra | ||
| Just Steel | 100-1 | 250-1 | 137-1 | D. Wayne Lukas |
| Real Men Violin | 125-1 | 250-1 | Kenny McPeek | |
| American Rascal | 250-1 | Steve Asmussen | ||
| Bonne Chance (g) | 250-1 | Bruce Levine | ||
| Call Me Andy | 250-1 | Brendan Walsh | ||
| Moonlight | 250-1 | Todd Pletcher | ||
| Rathmore | 250-1 | Tom Albertrani | ||
| Real Macho | 250-1 | Rohan Crichton | ||
| Le Dom Bro | 125-1 | 250-1 | 263-1 | Antonio Sano |
| Pandagate (r) | 60-1 | 300-1 | Christophe Clément | |
| Be You | 125-1 | 300-1 | 160-1 | Todd Pletcher |
| Frankie’s Empire | 150-1 | 300-1 | Susan Crowell | |
| Good Money | 150-1 | 300-1 | Chad Brown | |
| Lucky Jeremy | 150-1 | 300-1 | Bill Morey | |
| West Saratoga | 150-1 | 300-1 | Larry Demeritte | |
| Catire Vizcaya | 300-1 | Juan Carlos Ávila | ||
| Time for Truth | 100-1 | 350-1 | 231-1 | Ron Moquett |
| Corporate Power | 350-1 | 183-1 | Shug McGaughey | |
| Antiquarian | 350-1 | Todd Pletcher | ||
| Triple Espresso | 350-1 | Todd Pletcher | ||
| The Wine Steward | 40-1 | 400-1 | 131-1 | Mike Maker |
| Capital Idea | 125-1 | 400-1 | Christophe Clément | |
| Northern Flame | 125-1 | 400-1 | Kenny McPeek | |
| Scatify | 125-1 | 400-1 | John Sadler | |
| Noted | 150-1 | 400-1 | Todd Pletcher | |
| Dancing Groom | 250-1 | 400-1 | Antonio Sano | |
| Freedom Principle | 400-1 | José Garoffalo | ||
| Mc Vay | 400-1 | John Shirreffs | ||
| Woodcourt | 400-1 | Cipriano Contreras | ||
| Carbone | 100-1 | 500-1 | Steve Asmussen | |
| Informed Patriot | 100-1 | 500-1 | Steve Asmussen | |
| Doncho (g) | 110-1 | 500-1 | Michelle Lovell | |
| Bentornato | 125-1 | 500-1 | José D’Angelo | |
| Ethan Energy | 125-1 | 500-1 | Brad Cox | |
| First World War | 125-1 | 500-1 | Brendan Walsh | |
| Merit | 125-1 | 500-1 | Saffie Joseph Jr. | |
| Who Dey | 125-1 | 500-1 | Tommy Drury | |
| Booth | 150-1 | 500-1 | Steve Asmussen | |
| Catalytic | 150-1 | 500-1 | Saffie Joseph Jr. | |
| Imperial Gun | 150-1 | 500-1 | Steve Asmussen | |
| Legalize | 150-1 | 500-1 | Cherie DeVaux | |
| Otto the Conqueror | 150-1 | 500-1 | Steve Asmussen | |
| Awesome Road | 175-1 | 500-1 | Brad Cox | |
| Lightline | 175-1 | 500-1 | Brad Cox | |
| Better Than Gold | 200-1 | 500-1 | Gary Mandella | |
| Billal | 200-1 | 500-1 | Bill Mott | |
| Crafted | 200-1 | 500-1 | Steve Asmussen | |
| Inveigled | 200-1 | 500-1 | Jane Cibelli | |
| Moonlit Sonata | 200-1 | 500-1 | Tim Yakteen | |
| Bergen | 250-1 | 500-1 | Brad Cox | |
| Curlin’s Kaos | 250-1 | 500-1 | Antonio García | |
| Lat Long | 500-1 | 468-1 | Kenny McPeek | |
| Abrumar | 500-1 | Saffie Joseph Jr. | ||
| Alotaluck (g) | 500-1 | Ty Garrett | ||
| Amante Bianco | 500-1 | Keisuke Miyata | ||
| Antonio of Venice | 500-1 | Rudy Rodríguez | ||
| Ari’s Magic | 500-1 | Christophe Clément | ||
| Assurbanipal | 500-1 | Hiroyasu Tanaka | ||
| Awesome Ruta | 500-1 | Joey Foster | ||
| Bail Us Out | 500-1 | Todd Pletcher | ||
| Baytown Chatterbox (g) | 500-1 | Paul McEntee | ||
| Can Group | 500-1 | Mark Casse | ||
| Cardinale | 500-1 | Todd Pletcher | ||
| Circle P (g) | 500-1 | Flint Stites | ||
| Crushed It | 500-1 | Brad Cox | ||
| Deposition | 500-1 | Uriah St. Lewis | ||
| Dimatic | 500-1 | Steve Asmussen | ||
| Eliminate | 500-1 | Todd Pletcher | ||
| Elysian Meadows | 500-1 | Bill Mott | ||
| Gettysburg Address | 500-1 | Brad Cox | ||
| Give Me a Reason | 500-1 | Steve Asmussen | ||
| Guy Named Joe | 500-1 | Doug O’Neill | ||
| Hawks Creek | 500-1 | Keith Desormeaux | ||
| Heart Headed | 500-1 | Will Walden | ||
| Heartened | 500-1 | Todd Pletcher | ||
| Maximus Meridius | 500-1 | Butch Reid | ||
| Maycocks Bay | 500-1 | Michael Stidham | ||
| Mischief Joke | 500-1 | Mike Maker | ||
| Mission Beach | 500-1 | Brittany Russell | ||
| My Boy Prince | 500-1 | Mark Casse | ||
| Next Level | 500-1 | Keith Desormeaux | ||
| Raguel | 500-1 | Brendan Walsh | ||
| Refocus | 500-1 | Doug O’Neill | ||
| Ridgewood Runner | 500-1 | Carlos Martín | ||
| Searcy (g) | 500-1 | Brad Cox | ||
| Slider | 500-1 | John Sadler | ||
| Speed Runner | 500-1 | Todd Pletcher | ||
| Tapalo | 500-1 | John Sadler | ||
| The Donegal Clan | 500-1 | Dane Noel | ||
| Turn Up the Trees | 500-1 | Todd Pletcher | ||
| Vitement | 500-1 | Eddie Kenneally | ||
| Wecallemfuncoupons (g) | 500-1 | Jeffrey Englehart | ||
| *KDFW only | ||||
| g - gelding | ||||
| r - ridgling |