Kentucky Derby: Final key handicapping numbers for 2026

Late scratches notwithstanding, and taking the horses who were added to the field into account, key handicapping optics for Kentucky Derby 2026 look as final as they can be four days before post time.

History has been kind to certain big speed numbers and closing fractions from those final preps, which seem like they were run 100 years ago.

Last year Sovereignty became the 29th cashable winner in the last 34 runnings of the Derby to bring in a best Beyer Speed Figure of at least 95, according to Daily Racing Form.

Will pace make the race in Kentucky Derby 2026?

Twenty of the last 26 cashable winners, meaning Medina Spirit and not the subsequently promoted Mandaloun in 2021, brought at least a 100 Brisnet Speed Rating into the Derby. Sovereignty’s best had been 99. This year Renegade, the morning-line favorite, falls three points short of that threshold.

Longtime writer-turned-publicist Jennie Rees established the research that says 31 of the last 36 cashable Derby victors finished their last prep races with fractions of no worse than 13.0 seconds for the final furlong or 38.0 for the final three. Sovereignty was the fourth consecutive winner to have accomplished one or the other and the second in a row who had met both the final one- and three-furlong criteria.

These are the numbers for this year’s field of 20 horses plus the four also-eligibles. There are no comparable speed numbers for horses based outside the U.S. and Canada.

Even though six horses meet all the criteria, that does not necessarily make them the most likely winners Saturday. These were the boxes checked by the 11 most recent Derby horses whose win tickets were cashed: