Kentucky Derby: Fierceness shortens in Nevada fixed odds
Live betting into new Nevada fixed-odds pools for Kentucky Derby 2024 has made the 5-2 morning-line price for Fierceness look like a comparative value play.
Circa Sports in Las Vegas had the Eclipse Award winner Tuesday morning as a plus-225 favorite, meaning a $100 bet would return a profit of $225 for a win. Caesars Sports reopened Fierceness at plus 210, shortening from the plus 275 showing before Saturday’s post-position draw. The Westgate Superbook posted the two-time Grade 1 winner at 2-1, plus 200.
Forecasting Kentucky Derby 2024 from 1st to last place.
The long-term futures pools that were open since November at Caesars, December at Circa and early this month at the Westgate were closed just before Saturday’s draw. All bets were immediate action in that market. The difference with the new fixed odds that were posted in the last two days is that a horse must start the Derby for a bet on him to be live.
Blue Grass (G1) winner Sierra Leone, the consensus second choice, drifted to 4-1 at Caesars, held firm at plus 375 at Circa and shortened to plus 275 at the Westgate.
The expected bull market for Japan-based Forever Young began to materialize at two of the Nevada books. The Westgate cut him to 10-1, the same as his morning line. The UAE Derby (G2) winner held firm at 10-1 at Circa and was shortened to plus 850 at Caesars.
Catching Freedom, the Louisiana Derby (G2) victor who is 8-1 on the morning line, was a firm 12-1 on Tuesday at the Westgate, a drifting plus 1150 at Circa and a shortened 9-1 at Caesars.
Among the 20 horses drawn into the main field for Saturday’s 1 1/4-mile classic, T O Password had the longest odds Tuesday with a price of 180-1 at Circa. West Saratoga was 120-1, Grand Mo the First 100-1 and Society Man 100-1.
Fixed-odds bets at the three Nevada sportsbooks differ from the worldwide pari-mutuel market in that the displayed odds are locked in place at the time of a given bet.
According to the apps available to bettors in Nevada, these were the Las Vegas fixed odds Tuesday morning for Kentucky Derby 2024 with the best available prices displayed in bold. For comparison, the Churchill Downs pari-mutuel morning line also is shown here:
| Kentucky Derby 2024 | Caesars | Circa | Westgate | ML |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17. Fierceness | +210 | +225 | 2-1 | 5-2 |
| 2. Sierra Leone | 4-1 | +375 | +275 | 3-1 |
| 11. Forever Young | +850 | 10-1 | 10-1 | 10-1 |
| 4. Catching Freedom | 9-1 | +1150 | 12-1 | 8-1 |
| 8. Just a Touch | 12-1 | 15-1 | 16-1 | 10-1 |
| 1. Dornoch | 25-1 | 15-1 | 20-1 | 20-1 |
| 9. Encino | 25-1 | 27-1 | 25-1 | 20-1 |
| 7. Honor Marie | 15-1 | 24-1 | 30-1 | 20-1 |
| 3. Mystik Dan | 25-1 | 20-1 | 30-1 | 20-1 |
| 18. Stronghold | 25-1 | 30-1 | 20-1 | 20-1 |
| 15. Domestic Product | 25-1 | 25-1 | 30-1 | 30-1 |
| 19. Resilience | 22-1 | 26-1 | 30-1 | 20-1 |
| 6. Just Steel | 25-1 | 33-1 | 30-1 | 20-1 |
| 12. Track Phantom | 28-1 | 24-1 | 40-1 | 20-1 |
| 14. Endlessly | 35-1 | 25-1 | 40-1 | 30-1 |
| 5. Catalytic | 40-1 | 90-1 | 40-1 | 30-1 |
| 16. Grand Mo the First | 65-1 | 100-1 | 80-1 | 50-1 |
| 20. Society Man (g) | 80-1 | 100-1 | 100-1 | 50-1 |
| 21. Epic Ride (ae) | 100-1 | 50-1 | ||
| 13. West Saratoga | 65-1 | 120-1 | 80-1 | 50-1 |
| 10. T O Password | 65-1 | 180-1 | 50-1 | 30-1 |
| 22. Mugatu (ae) | 200-1 | 50-1 | ||
| ae - also-eligible | ||||
| g - gelding | ||||
| ML - morning line |
These were the Kentucky Derby prop bets available Tuesday morning via Circa Sports:
| Circa sports props | ||
|---|---|---|
| To win Kentucky Derby | Yes | No |
| 1. Dornoch | +1500 | –3100 |
| 2. Sierra Leone | +375 | –485 |
| 3. Mystik Dan | +2000 | –5800 |
| 4. Catching Freedom | +1150 | –1950 |
| 5. Catalytic | +9000 | –41500 |
| 6. Just Steel | +3300 | –18000 |
| 7. Honor Marie | +2400 | –9000 |
| 8. Just a Touch | +1500 | –3100 |
| 9. Encino | +2700 | –12000 |
| 10. T O Password | +18000 | –50500 |
| 11. Forever Young | +1000 | –1600 |
| 12. Track Phantom | +2400 | –9000 |
| 13. West Saratoga | +12000 | –44500 |
| 14. Endlessly | +2500 | –10000 |
| 15. Domestic Product | +2500 | –10000 |
| 16. Grand Mo the First | +10000 | –42500 |
| 17. Fierceness | +225 | –280 |
| 18. Stronghold | +3000 | –15000 |
| 19. Resilience | +2600 | –11000 |
| 20. Society Man | +10000 | –42500 |
| 17. Fierceness or 2. Sierra Leone | +100 | –130 |
| Head-to-head matchups | ||
| 17. Fierceness | –135 | |
| 2. Sierra Leone | +105 | |
| 17. Fierceness | –280 | |
| 11. Forever Young | +225 | |
| 4. Catching Freedom | +230 | |
| 17. Fierceness | –290 | |
| 11. Forever Young | +165 | |
| 2. Sierra Leone | –200 | |
| 4. Catching Freedom | +175 | |
| 2. Sierra Leone | –215 | |
| 4. Catching Freedom | +100 | |
| 11. Forever Young | –130 | |
| 8. Just a Touch | –140 | |
| 19. Resilience | +110 | |
| 20. Society Man | –105 | |
| 10. T O Password | –125 | |
| 15. Domestic Product | +130 | |
| 7. Honor Marie | –160 | |
| 6. Just Steel | +110 | |
| 18. Stronghold | –140 | |
| 14. Endlessly | +160 | |
| 8. Just a Touch | –195 | |
| 11. Forever Young | –475 | |
| 10. T O Password | +370 | |
| 19. Resilience | +240 | |
| 2. Sierra Leone | –300 | |
| 5. Catalytic | –140 | |
| 13. West Saratoga | +110 | |
| 19. Resilience | –125 | |
| 18. Stronghold | –105 | |
| 5. Catalytic | –125 | |
| 16. Grand Mo the First | –105 | |
| 4. Catching Freedom | –280 | |
| 14. Endlessly | +225 | |
| 3. Mystik Dan | –150 | |
| 12. Track Phantom | +120 | |
| 1. Dornoch | –220 | |
| 12. Track Phantom | +180 | |
| 4. Catching Freedom | –175 | |
| 1. Dornoch | +145 | |
| 4. Catching Freedom | –230 | |
| 15. Domestic Product | +185 | |
| 15. Domestic Product | +145 | |
| 1. Dornoch | –175 | |
| 7. Honor Marie | –330 | |
| 20. Society Man | +260 | |
| 8. Just a Touch | –250 | |
| 6. Just Steel | +200 | |
| 17. Fierceness | –940 | |
| 10. T O Password | +650 | |
| Triple Crown | Yes | No |
| Will same horse win all 3 races? | +800 | –1240 |
| Will Fierceness win all 3 races? | +900 | –1440 |