Kentucky Derby Favorites Rarely Win?
Who will be the public choice in the 2011 Kentucky Derby and how have favorites performed over the last 32 years?
A look at the chart below tells the story. Going back to 1979 only five favorites (Big Brown, Street Sense, Smarty Jones, Fusaichi Pegasus, Spectacular Bid) have gone on to win the Kentucky Derby. Three of those horses also captured the Preakness but none completed the Triple Crown sweep.
Although favorites haven't performed very well in the Derby over this 32-year sample, it is important to note that favorites have won 4 of the last 11 Derby runnings.
The 137th Kentucky Derby looks wide open with Nick Zito’s late running colt Dialed In the likely choice over 2-year-old champ Uncle Mo. Based on recent history and with such an evenly matched group assembled it seems unwise to choose the favorite in this year’s renewal of the Derby. What do you think?
YEAR |
FAVORITE | ODDS | FINISH | WINNER | PRICE |
2010 |
Lookin At Lucky | 6.30-1 | 6th | Super Saver | 8.00-1 |
2009 |
Friesan Fire | 3.80-1 | 18th | Mine That Bird | 50.60-1 |
2008 |
Big Brown | 2.40-1 | 1st | Big Brown | 2.40-1 |
2007 |
Street Sense | 4.90-1 | 1st | Street Sense | 4.90-1 |
2006 |
Sweetnorthernsaint | 5.50-1 | 7th | Barbaro | 6.10-1 |
2005 |
Bellamy Road | 2.60-1 | 7th | Giacomo | 50.30-1 |
2004 |
Smarty Jones | 4.10-1 | 1st | Smarty Jones | 4.10-1 |
2003 |
Empire Maker | 2.50-1 | 2nd | Funny Cide | 12.80-1 |
2002 |
Harlan's Holiday | 6.00-1 | 7th | War Emblem | 20.50-1 |
2001 |
Point Given | 1.80-1 | 5th | Monarchos | 10.50-1 |
2000 |
Fusaichi Pegasus | 2.30-1 | 1st | Fusaichi Pegasus | 2.30-1 |
1999 |
Excellent Meeting | 4.80-1 | 5th | Charismatic | 31.30-1 |
1998 |
Indian Charlie | 2.70-1 | 3rd | Real Quiet | 8.40-1 |
1997 |
Captain Bodget | 3.10-1 | 2nd | Silver Charm | 4.00-1 |
1996 |
Unbridled's Song | 3.50-1 | 5th | Grindstone | 5.90-1 |
1995 |
Timber Country | 3.40-1 | 3rd | Thunder Gulch | 24.50-1 |
1994 |
Holy Bull | 2.20-1 | 12th | Go For Gin | 9.10-1 |
1993 |
Prairie Bayou | 4.40-1 | 2nd | Sea Hero | 12.90-1 |
1992 |
Arazi | 0.90-1 | 8th | Lil E Tee | 16.80-1 |
1991 |
Hansel | 2.50-1 | 10th | Strike The Gold | 4.80-1 |
1990 |
Mister Frisky | 1.90-1 | 8th | Unbridled | 10.80-1 |
1989 |
Easy Goer | 0.80-1 | 2nd | Sunday Silence | 3.10-1 |
1988 |
Private Terms | 3.40-1 | 9th | Winning Colors | 3.40-1 |
1987 |
Demons Begone | 2.20-1 | 17th | Alysheba | 8.40-1 |
1986 |
Snow Chief | 2.10-1 | 11th | Ferdinand | 17.70-1 |
1985 |
Chief's Crown | 1.20-1 | 3rd | Spend A Buck | 4.10-1 |
1984 |
Life's Magic | 2.80-1 | 8th | Swale | 3.40-1 |
1983 |
Marfa | 2.40-1 | 5th | Sunny's Halo | 2.50-1 |
1982 |
Air Forbes Won | 2-70-1 | 7th | Gato Del Sol | 21.20-1 |
1981 |
Proud Appeal | 2.30-1 | 18th | Pleasant Colony | 3.50-1 |
1980 |
Rockhill Native | 2.10-1 | 5th | Genuine Risk | 13.30-1 |
1979 |
Spectacular Bid | 0.60-1 | 1st | Spectacular Bid | 0.60-1 |