Kentucky Derby fair odds: Is Forever Young finally the one?

My disdain for the Grade 2 UAE Derby as a prep for the Kentucky Derby is well established, and the futility of those Derby runners back it up.

In the 10 years of May Kentucky Derbies since the points era began in 2012-13, the UAE Derby has had 10 starters race in the Kentucky Derby. From those 10, there have been no winners, runners-up, third-, fourth- or fifth-place finishers. The best was Derma Sotogake's sixth-place finish last year.

If including all runners since 2001, then the record is 0-for-17 with no horses in the superfecta and only Master of Hounds in 2011 cracking the Super High 5.

I always thought these numbers made sense. It is a hard ship from Dubai, and although plenty of horses return to run well, it's only the Kentucky Oaks and Derby runners who are doing so on five to six weeks rest while, in the case of the Derby, stretching out to the American classic distance of 1 1/4 miles.

But this is a value game, after all, and it is not like these horses can't win. It is just that they very typically are overbet to do so.

I'm not so sure that will be the case this year with Forever Young, who arrived at Churchill Downs three weeks before the world's most famous horse race after wins in the Saudi Derby (G3) and UAE Derby.

After his UAE Derby win on the morning of March 30, it seemed as though he might be the Kentucky Derby favorite. Then champion Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Fierceness spread eagled the Florida Derby (G1) field to clearly wrest the favortism role. Then Sierra Leone backed up his Risen Star (G2) win with a Blue Grass Stakes (G1) blitz and will easily be the second choice if he doesn't vie for favortism.

That means Forever Young is at worst third choice in a field of 20. I could see him as low as fifth choice, depending on what the public does with Louisiana Derby (G2) winner Catching Freedom and Blue Grass runner-up Just a Touch, both trained by Brad Cox.

Yes, all the issues with shipping from Dubai are still in play for Forever Young, but no horse has come from there with the Ragozin figures he has relative to the price he will be.

It all adds up to I just can't dismiss Forever Young's chances if he is going to pay $20 to win the Kentucky Derby.