Kentucky Derby fair odds: Bubble horses have big chances

Three of the next four horses on the outside looking in to the Kentucky Derby points standings would all have a better chance of winning than half the field currently eligible for the race.

Skinner, Cyclone Mischief and Mandarin Hero need one, two or four defections, respectively, assuming no one behind them earns points in the Lexington Stakes on Saturday at Keeneland. And any who get in would be an intriguing wagering opportunity.

But they are not in right now, and my fair odds include only the top 18 by points, Japan series invite Continuar plus a "field" for all other contenders. Jace's Road is a part of the field as the 19th horse, but the bulk of that 9-2 price is because of Skinner (15-1), Mandarin Hero (18-1), and Cyclone Mischief (30-1). That makes any of those three a more likely winner than 12 horses currently in the field.

Recent trends indicate that all three will get in, though. Last year, there were seven defections between the last 100-points-to-the-winner prep race and Rich Strike drawing in. In 2021, there were 21 defections from the points list, and ultimately, only 20 entered anyway.

As for who is definitely in, Forte stands tallest at 7-2 on my fair odds with Todd Pletcher-trained stablemates Tapit Trice at 6-1 and Kingsbarns at 30-1. That makes the Hall of Fame conditioner 3-2 to saddle the Kentucky Derby winner.

Practical Move is the other low price, with the Santa Anita Derby (G1) winner at 8-1 on my fair odds line. If both the horses he beat last out – Mandarin Hero and Skinner – get in, then that means there's a 7-2 chance the Kentucky Derby winner comes out of the Santa Anita Derby, making it by far the strongest prep by that metric.