Kentucky Derby: Fierceness is top individual in future wager
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Fierceness was installed as the 8-1 individual favorite, and all 3-year-olds other than the 39 listed horses were collectively made the 7-5 top choice for pool 3 this week of the 2024 Kentucky Derby Future Wager.
Morning-line odds written by longtime Churchill Downs oddsmaker Mike Battaglia were posted Tuesday on the Kentucky Derby website and with past performances from Brisnet. Nationwide pari-mutuel betting into $2 win and $2 exacta pools starts Friday at noon and ends Sunday at 6 p.m. EST.
HRN’s top 50 for Kentucky Derby 2024.
Owned by Mike Repole and trained by Todd Pletcher, Fierceness is expected to make his 2024 debut Feb. 3 in the Grade 3 Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park. Before and after his Breeders’ Cup victory in November, the City of Light colt closed pool 1 with win odds of 29-1 and pool 2 at 8-1.
Pletcher has four other colts in the KDFW. Breeders’ Cup Juvenile third-place finisher Locked is 23-1, maiden victor Cardinale is 80-1 and recent debut winners Born Noble and Tuscan Sky are 60-1 and 99-1, respectively.
The pool 3 choices for the KDFW are shown here with comparable odds at Caesars Sportsbook and Circa Sports, the two casino groups that are taking fixed-odds futures action in Nevada:
| KDFW pool 3 | ML | Caesars | Circa | Trainer |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Amante Bianco | 60-1 | 100-1 | Keisuke Miyata | |
| 2. Ari’s Magic | 99-1 | Christophe Clément | ||
| 3. Book’em Danno (g) | 80-1 | 85-1 | 140-1 | Derek Ryan |
| 4. Born Noble | 60-1 | 75-1 | 50-1 | Todd Pletcher |
| 5. Carbone | 60-1 | 50-1 | 70-1 | Steve Asmussen |
| 6. Cardinale | 80-1 | 200-1 | Todd Pletcher | |
| 7. Catching Freedom | 40-1 | 75-1 | 55-1 | Brad Cox |
| 8. Change of Command | 60-1 | 75-1 | 75-1 | Shug McGaughey |
| 9. Conquest Warrior | 40-1 | 35-1 | Shug McGaughey | |
| 10. Deterministic | 99-1 | 150-1 | Christophe Clément | |
| 11. Dornoch | 20-1 | 15-1 | 12-1 | Danny Gargan |
| 12. Drum Roll Please | 40-1 | 90-1 | 100-1 | Brad Cox |
| 13. El Capi | 50-1 | 30-1 | 30-1 | Rick Dutrow |
| 14. Ethan Energy | 60-1 | 100-1 | 90-1 | Brad Cox |
| 15. Fierceness | 8-1 | 15-1 | 13-1 | Todd Pletcher |
| 16. Forever Young | 30-1 | 40-1 | Yoshito Yahagi | |
| 17. Honor Marie | 30-1 | 75-1 | 50-1 | Whit Beckman |
| 18. Imperial Gun | 99-1 | 100-1 | 100-1 | Steve Asmussen |
| 19. Just Steel | 80-1 | 100-1 | 150-1 | D. Wayne Lukas |
| 20. Knightsbridge | 50-1 | 35-1 | 25-1 | Bill Mott |
| 21. Lat Long | 99-1 | 250-1 | Kenny McPeek | |
| 22. Liberal Arts | 80-1 | 100-1 | 65-1 | Robbie Medina |
| 23. Locked | 15-1 | 30-1 | 20-1 | Todd Pletcher |
| 24. Merit | 99-1 | 150-1 | 250-1 | Saffie Joseph Jr. |
| 25. Nash | 30-1 | 18-1 | 16-1 | Brad Cox |
| 26. Otello | 99-1 | 125-1 | 75-1 | Christophe Clément |
| 27. Otto the Conqueror | 99-1 | 125-1 | 100-1 | Steve Asmussen |
| 28. Parchment Party | 40-1 | 85-1 | 80-1 | Bill Mott |
| 29. Real Men Violin | 80-1 | 100-1 | 115-1 | Kenny McPeek |
| 30. Resilience | 99-1 | 100-1 | 250-1 | Bill Mott |
| 31. Sierra Leone | 30-1 | 18-1 | 20-1 | Chad Brown |
| 32. Snead | 50-1 | 75-1 | 25-1 | Brendan Walsh |
| 33. Stretch Ride | 50-1 | 85-1 | 100-1 | Dale Romans |
| 34. Stronghold | 99-1 | 90-1 | 125-1 | Phil D’Amato |
| 35. The Wine Steward | 50-1 | 40-1 | 80-1 | Mike Maker |
| 36. Timberlake | 25-1 | 35-1 | 40-1 | Brad Cox |
| 37. Time for Truth | 99-1 | 150-1 | 125-1 | Ron Moquett |
| 38. Track Phantom | 60-1 | 50-1 | 40-1 | Steve Asmussen |
| 39. Tuscan Sky | 99-1 | 125-1 | Todd Pletcher | |
| 40. All other 3-year-olds | 7-5 | |||
| ML - KDFW morning line | ||||
| g - gelding |
Since Bob Baffert’s horses are ineligible for the Derby unless they are transferred by Jan. 29 to eligible trainers, would-be contenders like Nysos, who is 18-1 in Las Vegas fixed-odds futures, are not listed individually in the KDFW. They are included in the all-others mutuel field.
Pool 3 of the KDFW has 21 new betting interests that were not in pool 2. They include Amante Bianco, Ari’s Magic, Book’em Danno, Born Noble, Cardinale, Change of Command, Conquest Warrior, Deterministic, El Capi, Ethan Energy, Forever Young, Honor Marie, Imperial Gun, Just Steel, Lat Long, Otello, Resilience, Snead, Time for Truth, Track Phantom and Tuscan Sky.
In pools 1 and 2, the all-others option was split into male and female categories. In the first pool, all other colts and geldings closed as the 4-5 favorite, and all fillies were 61-1. In pool 2, all other males collectively were the 6-5 top choice, and all females were 64-1.
Six KDFW pools were scheduled ahead of the May 4 running of the Derby. Pool 1 was Oct. 31-Nov. 2, and pool 2 was Nov. 23-26. Pool 4 will be Feb. 16-18, pool 5 runs with the lone Kentucky Oaks Future Wager from March 15 to 17, and pool 6 is scheduled for April 4-6.
Since all bets are immediate action, Churchill Downs said there will be no refunds on the KDFW except for injured or withdrawn horses that track management takes out of the pool before Sunday.