Kentucky Derby 2026 odds: Renegade settles in as favorite

Renegade settled in as the favorite for Kentucky Derby 2026 at 4-1 at Caesars Sportsbook and at Westgate, but bettors who shopped beyond Las Vegas could have done a shade better at Bovada, where the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby winner stood Monday morning at 9-2.

He arrived in that role by attrition. Ted Noffey, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner, opened the Caesars futures in November as the favorite and was still on top as the winter-book favorite Jan. 1 before he was announced off the Derby trail Jan. 29 with an injury. Paladin took over as the futures favorite before he was also sidelined March 28, the same day Renegade won the Arkansas Derby.

Trained by Todd Pletcher and a son of Into Mischief, Renegade drew the rail for Saturday’s running at Churchill Downs. He drifted in Las Vegas in the past week, moving from 3-1 to 4-1 at Caesars and from 7-2 to 4-1 at Westgate.

Renegade will leave from a post that has produced eight Kentucky Derby winners since the starting gate’s introduction in 1930 but none since Ferdinand in 1986. Post 17, where Six Speed drew, is 0-for-46 over the same span and remains the only used post that has never produced a winner. Post 5, where Right to Party drew, has produced the most Derby winners with 10, including 2017 winner Always Dreaming.

Splits between the three books surfaced through the rest of the contender list.

Further Ado, the Gun Runner colt who won the Blue Grass (G1) for trainer Brad Cox, carried 6-1 odds at Caesars but was cut to 5-1 at Westgate. Bovada listed him at 11-2.

Cox also trains Commandment, who took the Florida Derby (G1) and held at 6-1 at both Vegas books. Bovada offered the shortest price at 5-1 on the Into Mischief colt.

Chief Wallabee, third in the Florida Derby, was 7-1 at Westgate and Bovada and 8-1 at Caesars. The Puma, second in the Florida Derby, held firm at 10-1 across all three books.

Two horses out of the Santa Anita Derby (G1) showed the widest splits between the Vegas books. So Happy, the winner, was 15-1 at Caesars and 16-1 at Bovada but drifted to 20-1 at Westgate. Runner-up Potente was 20-1 at Caesars, 22-1 at Bovada and 30-1 at Westgate.

Westgate had the shorter price on Danon Bourbon, the Japan Road qualifier who won the Fukuryu Stakes, at 16-1. Caesars listed him at 20-1 and Bovada at 25-1. UAE Derby (G2) winner Wonder Dean was a uniform 30-1 across all three books. Louisiana Derby (G2) winner Emerging Market was 14-1 at Westgate, 15-1 at Caesars and 16-1 at Bovada.

Caesars had the shorter price on a number of the longer shots. Albus, who won the Wood Memorial (G2), was 30-1 at Caesars and 50-1 at Westgate. Wood Memorial runner-up Right to Party was 30-1 at Caesars and 60-1 at Westgate. Fulleffort, winner of the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3), was 20-1 at Caesars and 40-1 at Westgate. Intrepido, fourth in the Santa Anita Derby, was 50-1 at Caesars and 80-1 at Westgate.

The prediction-market side stayed quiet. Kalshi has never taken action on the Kentucky Derby and did not for 2026. Polymarket, which booked the Derby in each of the past two years, opened a Kentucky Derby 2026 market last week but refunded all bets Saturday and no longer is taking action on the race.

The futures at Caesars Sportsbook, which also operates William Hill outlets in Nevada, and at Westgate are available in person or on an app. They also may be played from out of state through a licensed proxy.