Kentucky Derby 2026 futures: Ted Noffey leads 68 horses
Ted Noffey might have his connections laser-focused on the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at the end of the month. But for the end of the Kentucky Derby 2026 trail, he already is a quantifiable favorite.
Caesars Sportsbook in Nevada, which also operates William Hill outlets there, made Spendthrift Farm’s two-time Grade 1 winner its 11-1 favorite Tuesday night. That was when it opened its annual Derby futures with 68 horses carrying odds as long as 150-1.
Kentucky Derby 2026 pedigree profile: Ted Noffey.
Trained by Todd Pletcher, the Into Mischief colt is 3-for-3 with wins in his Saratoga debut in August, the Hopeful (G1) over the same track in September and the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) on Saturday at Keeneland.
Six-time Derby winner Bob Baffert trains the second and joint-third favorite at Caesars. Del Mar Futurity (G1) winner Brant is 14-1, and Hopeful runner-up Buetane is 22-1. Amr Zedan bought each colt for at least $1 million, a figure that carries a millstone. Fusaichi Pegasus, a $4 million yearling, is the only seven-digit purchase to have won the Kentucky Derby, and that was in 2000.
Into Mischief and Not This Time each sired five futures choices. In addition to Ted Noffey, Into Mischief has Plutarch at 40-1, Provenance 60-1, Tagermeen 66-1 and Into the Beast 100-1. Not This Time has Final Score at 22-1, Blackout Time 28-1, It’s Our Time 33-1, Balboa 50-1 and Schwarzenegger 80-1.
Baffert has 10 of his colts on the board. After Brant and Buetane, all four of his starters from Saturday’s American Pharoah (G1) are posted, including runner-up Desert Gate at 33-1, third-place Plutarch 40-1, fifth-place Balboa 50-1 and last-place Kristofferson 40-1.
With nearly seven months until Kentucky Derby 2026, it is obvious how early it is to bet futures. It is painfully so for anyone who bet Chancer McPatrick when Caesars opened him as its favorite last October at 7-1. Chancer also was a two-time Grade 1 winner. He did not earn enough points to get in the Derby, and he has not won a graded stakes since.
Eventual winner Sovereignty opened at 28-1 last October.
The Caesars futures are available in Nevada either in person or on an app. They also may be played legally from out of state using an existing account through a licensed proxy.
Churchill Downs opens its first pari-mutuel Kentucky Derby Future Wager pool Oct. 29-31, closing it just before the running of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.
These were the Kentucky Derby 2026 odds showing Wednesday morning on the Caesars Sportsbook sports-betting app in Nevada:
| Kentucky Derby | Caesars | Sire | Trainer |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ted Noffey | 11-1 | Into Mischief | Todd Pletcher |
| Brant | 14-1 | Gun Runner | Bob Baffert |
| Buetane | 22-1 | Tiz the Law | Bob Baffert |
| Final Score | 22-1 | Not This Time | Todd Pletcher |
| Blackout Time | 28-1 | Not This Time | Kenny McPeek |
| Spice Runner | 28-1 | Gun Runner | Steve Asmussen |
| Argos | 33-1 | Nyquist | Riley Mott |
| Boyd | 33-1 | Violence | Bob Baffert |
| Comport | 33-1 | Collected | Eddie Kenneally |
| Desert Gate | 33-1 | Omaha Beach | Bob Baffert |
| Ewing | 33-1 | Knicks Go | Mark Casse |
| Intrépido (r) | 33-1 | Maximus Mischief | Jeff Mullins |
| It’s Our Time | 33-1 | Not This Time | Tom Amoss |
| Napoleon Solo | 33-1 | Liam’s Map | Chad Summers |
| Curtain Call | 40-1 | Tiz the Law | Mark Casse |
| Englishman | 40-1 | Maxfield | Cherie DeVaux |
| Kristofferson | 40-1 | Nyquist | Bob Baffert |
| Litmus Test | 40-1 | Nyquist | Bob Baffert |
| Plutarch | 40-1 | Into Mischief | Bob Baffert |
| Talkin | 40-1 | Good Magic | Danny Gargan |
| Balboa | 50-1 | Not This Time | Bob Baffert |
| Civil Liberty | 50-1 | Independence Hall | Doug O’Neill |
| Falcon Jet | 50-1 | Justify | Bob Baffert |
| Lennox the Grey | 50-1 | Liam’s Map | Catherine Day Phillips |
| Obliteration | 50-1 | Violence | Steve Asmussen |
| Romeo | 50-1 | Honor A. P. | Steve Asmussen |
| Soldier N Diplomat | 50-1 | Army Mule | Steve Asmussen |
| Turf Star | 50-1 | Caravaggio | Graham Motion |
| Criteria | 60-1 | Yaupon | Chad Brown |
| Provenance | 60-1 | Into Mischief | Bob Baffert |
| Rancho Santa Fe | 66-1 | Tapit | Brad Cox |
| Smarty Hardy (g) | 66-1 | Stroll | Todd James Jordan |
| Tagermeen | 66-1 | Into Mischief | Steve Asmussen |
| Hey Nay Nay | 75-1 | No Nay Never | John Sadler |
| Intricate Spirit | 75-1 | Complexity | Miguel Clément |
| Later Than Planned | 75-1 | Cotai Glory | Phil D’Amato |
| Stradale | 75-1 | Yaupon | Steve Asmussen |
| Street Beast | 75-1 | Street Sense | Ben Colebrook |
| Universe | 75-1 | Global Campaign | Kenny McPeek |
| Attfield | 80-1 | Vekoma | Tom Morley |
| Bottas | 80-1 | Vekoma | Miguel Clément |
| Epic Desire | 80-1 | Uncle Mo | Todd Pletcher |
| Schwarzenegger | 80-1 | Not This Time | Wesley Ward |
| Vost | 80-1 | Instagrand | Will Walden |
| Cabourg | 85-1 | Munnings | José D’Angelo |
| Diciassette | 88-1 | Mitole | Patrick Biancone |
| Infiltrate | 90-1 | Oscar Performance | Brendan Walsh |
| Max Ciao | 90-1 | Maxfield | Steve Knapp |
| My World | 90-1 | Essential Quality | Brad Cox |
| Proletariat (r) | 90-1 | Raging Bull | Jeff Mullins |
| Stickupwithoutagun | 90-1 | McKinzie | Kenny McPeek |
| Big Dom | 100-1 | McKinzie | Tom Amoss |
| Camigol | 100-1 | Neolithic | Antonio Sano |
| Casa Cielo | 100-1 | Caravaggio | Keith Desormeaux |
| Exonerate | 100-1 | Justify | Brad Cox |
| Froutien | 100-1 | Galilean | Todd Pletcher |
| Into the Beast | 100-1 | Into Mischief | Dale Romans |
| Johnny’s Red Storm | 100-1 | Twirling Candy | George Weaver |
| Longshoreman | 100-1 | Twirling Candy | Wesley Ward |
| Throckmorton | 100-1 | Caracaro | José D’Angelo |
| A. P. Again | 150-1 | Honor A. P. | Doug O’Neill |
| Bacio | 150-1 | Maclean’s Music | Wesley Ward |
| J J Grey | 150-1 | Street Boss | Kenny McPeek |
| Just Asap | 150-1 | Maxfield | Mark Casse |
| Knick the Quick | 150-1 | Knicks Go | Chris Davis |
| Maximus Prime | 150-1 | Maximus Mischief | Anthony Mitchell |
| Nine Ball (r) | 150-1 | Code of Honor | Riley Mott |
| Password | 150-1 | Uncle Mo | Rodolphe Brisset |
| g - gelding | |||
| r - ridgling |