Kentucky Derby 2026 futures: Surprise winners shake up odds
Bob Baffert added another Kentucky Derby 2026 contender Saturday when Potente scored in the Grade 2 San Felipe at Santa Anita, but the six-time Derby-winning trainer’s celebration was tempered by the disappointing fifth-place finish of heavily favored stablemate Brant.
Potente, an Into Mischief colt making his second career start, rallied from off the pace to catch long shot Robusta at the wire. Caesars Sportsbook Nevada cut his odds from 35-1 to 20-1 by Monday morning.
“Potente is bred to go that far. He was ready for that,” Baffert said. Of Brant, the 4-5 favorite who pressed the pace before tiring, he said, “I think Brant was a work away from this race. He got tired.”
Brant’s odds drifted from 30-1 to 40-1. Doug O’Neill-trained Robusta, the runner-up, made one of the largest jumps on the board, shortening from 175-1 to 50-1. Mark Glatt’s So Happy ran third and tightened from 50-1 to 45-1. Secured Freedom moved from 80-1 to 55-1 in fourth.
In Florida, The Puma delivered the week’s biggest upset in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs. Trained by Gustavo Delgado, the Essential Quality colt rallied from last in a field of nine to record his first career victory in three starts. He was the most dramatic mover at Caesars, plunging from 66-1 to 22-1.
Beaten favorites from the Tampa Bay Derby saw their odds lengthen. Runner-up Further Ado, the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) winner trained by Brad Cox making his first start since November, drifted from 20-1 to 28-1. Canaletto, the Chad Brown-trained Into Mischief colt who had been one of the bigger market movers earlier in the cycle, went from 15-1 to 30-1 after finishing third.
Todd Pletcher-trained Powershift, another Tampa Bay Derby runner, shortened from 80-1 to 50-1. Pace-setting Redland Rebels was the only addition to the Caesars board, opening at 110-1.
Paladin, the Chad Brown-trained Gun Runner colt, held firm atop the Caesars board at 8-1 on Monday morning. He leads the road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard with 60 qualifying points and has not raced since his Risen Star (G2) triumph. Commandment, the Fountain of Youth (G2) winner, remained the second choice at 9-1.
Last week’s Rebel (G2) results at Oaklawn continued to resonate. Class President, the Pletcher-trained Uncle Mo colt who won the race, shortened further from 45-1 to 15-1. Runner-up Silent Tactic, trained by Mark Casse, improved from 40-1 to 18-1.
Among other movers, Golden Tempo tightened from 25-1 to 20-1, Iron Honor from 22-1 to 20-1 and Cherokee Nation from 40-1 to 30-1. Chip Honcho moved from 50-1 to 35-1. Civil Liberty made a notable jump from 125-1 to 60-1.
Solitude Dude and Rancho Santa Fe were removed from the board.
In all, 138 horses were listed Monday morning in the Kentucky Derby 2026 futures at Caesars Sportsbook in Nevada, which also operates William Hill outlets. They are available for betting in person or on an app in Nevada.
| Horse | Previous | Current | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paladin | 8-1 | 8-1 | |
| Commandment | 9-1 | 9-1 | |
| Chief Wallabee | 10-1 | 10-1 | |
| Nearly | 11-1 | 11-1 | |
| Renegade | 12-1 | 12-1 | |
| Boyd | 14-1 | 14-1 | |
| Class President | 45-1 | 15-1 | SHORTENED |
| Silent Tactic | 40-1 | 18-1 | SHORTENED |
| Potente | 35-1 | 20-1 | SHORTENED |
| Golden Tempo | 25-1 | 20-1 | SHORTENED |
| Iron Honor | 22-1 | 20-1 | SHORTENED |
| The Puma | 66-1 | 22-1 | SHORTENED |
| Further Ado | 20-1 | 28-1 | DRIFTED |
| Cannoneer | 28-1 | 28-1 | |
| Napoleon Solo | 30-1 | 30-1 | |
| Cherokee Nation | 40-1 | 30-1 | SHORTENED |
| Canaletto | 15-1 | 30-1 | DRIFTED |
| Reagan's Honor | 35-1 | 33-1 | SHORTENED |
| Chip Honcho | 50-1 | 35-1 | SHORTENED |
| Six Speed | 35-1 | 35-1 | |
| Intrepido | 35-1 | 35-1 | |
| Courting | 40-1 | 40-1 | |
| Leading Change | 40-1 | 40-1 | |
| Ewing | 40-1 | 40-1 | |
| Brant | 30-1 | 40-1 | DRIFTED |
| Pyromancer | 40-1 | 40-1 | |
| Emerging Market | 45-1 | 45-1 | |
| So Happy | 50-1 | 45-1 | SHORTENED |
| Final Score | 50-1 | 50-1 | |
| Al Haram | 40-1 | 50-1 | DRIFTED |
| Powershift | 80-1 | 50-1 | SHORTENED |
| Robusta | 175-1 | 50-1 | SHORTENED |
| Englishman | 50-1 | 50-1 | |
| Pavlovian | 50-1 | 50-1 | |
| Buetane | 50-1 | 50-1 | |
| Secured Freedom | 80-1 | 55-1 | SHORTENED |
| Litmus Test | 55-1 | 55-1 | |
| Schoolyardsuperman | 55-1 | 55-1 | |
| Incredibolt | 60-1 | 60-1 | |
| Civil Liberty | 125-1 | 60-1 | SHORTENED |
| Rebel Instinct | 60-1 | 60-1 | |
| Desert Gate | 60-1 | 60-1 | |
| Talk to Me Jimmy | 60-1 | 60-1 | |
| Bravaro | 65-1 | 65-1 | |
| Blackout Time | 65-1 | 65-1 | |
| Strategic Risk | 80-1 | 66-1 | SHORTENED |
| D'Code | 66-1 | 66-1 | |
| Project Ace | 70-1 | 70-1 | |
| Liberty National | 75-1 | 75-1 | |
| Spartacus | 75-1 | 75-1 | |
| Blacksmith | 75-1 | 75-1 | |
| Soldier N Diplomat | 60-1 | 75-1 | DRIFTED |
| Grittiness | 75-1 | 75-1 | |
| Provenance | 75-1 | 75-1 | |
| Great White | 75-1 | 75-1 | |
| Curtain Call | 75-1 | 75-1 | |
| Local Knowledge | 75-1 | 75-1 | |
| Igniter | 80-1 | 80-1 | |
| Stop the Car | 80-1 | 80-1 | |
| Stradale | 80-1 | 80-1 | |
| Creole Chrome | 85-1 | 85-1 | |
| Express Kid | 90-1 | 90-1 | |
| Big Dom | 60-1 | 100-1 | DRIFTED |
| Intricate Spirit | 100-1 | 100-1 | |
| Crown the Buckeye | 100-1 | 100-1 | |
| Hadrian's Wall | 125-1 | 100-1 | SHORTENED |
| Ottinho | 100-1 | 100-1 | |
| Universe | 100-1 | 100-1 | |
| Talkin | 100-1 | 100-1 | |
| Satono Voyage | 100-1 | 100-1 | |
| Carson Street | 100-1 | 100-1 | |
| Redland Rebels | - | 110-1 | NEW |
| Proletariat | 125-1 | 125-1 | |
| The Big Con | 125-1 | 125-1 | |
| Street Beast | 125-1 | 125-1 | |
| Confessional | 125-1 | 125-1 | |
| Arctic Beast | 125-1 | 125-1 | |
| Boss Dylan | 125-1 | 125-1 | |
| Obliteration | 125-1 | 125-1 | |
| Fulleffort | 125-1 | 125-1 | |
| Later Than Planned | 125-1 | 125-1 | |
| Greenwich Village | 125-1 | 125-1 | |
| Tariff Mindset | 125-1 | 125-1 | |
| Smarty Hardy | 125-1 | 125-1 | |
| Boca Beach Club | 125-1 | 125-1 | |
| Stirring Words | 125-1 | 125-1 | |
| Criteria | 125-1 | 125-1 | |
| Mob | 125-1 | 125-1 | |
| Brotherly Love | 125-1 | 125-1 | |
| Bottas | 125-1 | 125-1 | |
| Falcon Jet | 125-1 | 125-1 | |
| It's Our Time | 125-1 | 125-1 | |
| Infiltrate | 125-1 | 125-1 | |
| Time for Music | 125-1 | 125-1 | |
| Steel | 125-1 | 125-1 | |
| Enforced Agenda | 125-1 | 125-1 | |
| Golden Tornado | 150-1 | 150-1 | |
| Top Level | 150-1 | 150-1 | |
| Two Out Hero | 150-1 | 150-1 | |
| Exonerate | 150-1 | 150-1 | |
| Thunder Buck | 150-1 | 150-1 | |
| Khon Han | 150-1 | 150-1 | |
| Bull by the Horns | 150-1 | 150-1 | |
| My World | 150-1 | 150-1 | |
| No Joke Joe | 150-1 | 150-1 | |
| Romeo | 150-1 | 150-1 | |
| Clocker Special | 150-1 | 150-1 | |
| White Tiger | 150-1 | 150-1 | |
| Sockdolager | 150-1 | 150-1 | |
| Reclamation | 150-1 | 150-1 | |
| Exosome | 150-1 | 150-1 | |
| Crupper | 150-1 | 150-1 | |
| Spice Runner | 150-1 | 150-1 | |
| Right To Party | 150-1 | 150-1 | |
| Nine Ball | 150-1 | 150-1 | |
| Amberjack | 150-1 | 150-1 | |
| Game for It | 150-1 | 150-1 | |
| Awesome Gun | 150-1 | 150-1 | |
| Fifty Four Yarder | 150-1 | 150-1 | |
| Ocean Bear | 150-1 | 150-1 | |
| Epic Desire | 175-1 | 175-1 | |
| Very Connected | 175-1 | 175-1 | |
| Liberty Valance | 175-1 | 175-1 | |
| Waymark | 175-1 | 175-1 | |
| Into The Beast | 175-1 | 175-1 | |
| Rockies Balboa | 175-1 | 175-1 | |
| Herbs Bolt | 200-1 | 200-1 | |
| Attfield | 200-1 | 200-1 | |
| Smoovin Saturday | 200-1 | 200-1 | |
| Gallivant | 200-1 | 200-1 | |
| Quality Mischief | 225-1 | 225-1 | |
| Crossingthechannel | 250-1 | 250-1 | |
| Max Ciao | 250-1 | 250-1 | |
| Classico | 250-1 | 250-1 | |
| Cruise Home | 250-1 | 250-1 | |
| Start the Ride | 250-1 | 250-1 | |
| Horse of the Sea | 250-1 | 250-1 | |
| Vitruvian Man | 250-1 | 250-1 | |
| Solitude Dude | 55-1 | - | REMOVED |
| Rancho Santa Fe | 100-1 | - | REMOVED |