Kentucky Derby 2026 futures: Strategic Risk, My World rise
Strategic Risk and My World were surprise winners in the first road to Kentucky Derby 2026 points races of the new year, earning 10 points each and moving up on the Las Vegas futures board at Caesars Sportsbook.
Strategic Risk, trained by Mark Casse, upset the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn on Saturday. The Noble Bird colt had shown promise with a nine-length romp in the Florida Sire In Reality in November but was sent off at 6-1 in a field headlined by graded-stakes-placed Universe. Strategic Risk's odds were cut from 95-1 to 50-1 after the victory.
My World, trained by Brad Cox, made it three straight wins with a two-length score in the Jerome Stakes at Aqueduct. The Essential Quality colt tracked 3-5 favorite Balboa before drawing clear in the stretch. My World improved from 90-1 to 75-1 in the futures.
Balboa, who finished second in the Jerome after leading into the stretch, drifted significantly from 28-1 to 90-1. The Not This Time colt had been considered a contender after his third-place finish in the Remsen (G2) in December.
Universe also disappointed in the Smarty Jones. The Kenny McPeek-trained colt, who entered off runner-up finishes in both the Street Sense (G3) and Kentucky Jockey Club (G2), drifted from 40-1 to 75-1.
Ted Noffey remained the 8-1 favorite after being idle since his Breeders' Cup Juvenile triumph for trainer Todd Pletcher. The Into Mischief colt is the official winter-book favorite for Kentucky Derby 2026, a designation that has produced only one winner since 2000. Ted Noffey is expected to return in the Fountain of Youth (G2) at Gulfstream Park.
Obliteration returned to the futures board at 85-1 after dominating Saturday's Renaissance by 7 1/2 lengths at Oaklawn. Trained by Steve Asmussen, the Violence colt had been on the board at 50-1 on Dec. 8 before being removed. Obliteration won the Sanford (G3) at Saratoga in July and finished third in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.
Also returning to the board was Cabourg at 200-1. The colt had been listed at 150-1 on Nov. 30 before being removed.
Other notable movements saw Stop the Car shorten from 66-1 to 40-1 and Commandment improve from 66-1 to 45-1.
Several horses were added to the 112-horse board this week: Class President at 90-1, Oscar's Hope at 100-1, Enforced Agenda at 100-1, Nearly at 100-1, Boca Beach Club at 100-1, No Joke Joe at 125-1, Baytown Dreamer at 150-1, Epic Summer at 175-1, and Tripp's Promise at 300-1. Oscar's Hope finished second in the Smarty Jones, and Boca Beach Club and Baytown Dreamer also ran in that race.
These odds were available Monday morning on the Caesars Sportsbook and William Hill apps in Nevada. They also may be played legally from out of state using an existing account through a licensed proxy.
| Horse | Previous | Current | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ted Noffey | 8-1 | 8-1 | |
| Paladin | 10-1 | 10-1 | |
| Further Ado | 15-1 | 15-1 | |
| Cannoneer | 20-1 | 20-1 | |
| Incredibolt | 22-1 | 22-1 | |
| Brant | 25-1 | 25-1 | |
| Napoleon Solo | 25-1 | 25-1 | |
| Litmus Test | 25-1 | 25-1 | |
| Boyd | 28-1 | 28-1 | |
| Blackout Time | 30-1 | 30-1 | |
| Courting | 33-1 | 33-1 | |
| Englishman | 33-1 | 33-1 | |
| Final Score | 33-1 | 33-1 | |
| Leading Change | 35-1 | 35-1 | |
| Provenance | 35-1 | 35-1 | |
| Rebel Instinct | 40-1 | 40-1 | |
| Local Knowledge | 40-1 | 40-1 | |
| Stop the Car | 66-1 | 40-1 | SHORTENED |
| Renegade | 40-1 | 40-1 | |
| Blacksmith | 45-1 | 45-1 | |
| Plutarch | 45-1 | 45-1 | |
| Commandment | 66-1 | 45-1 | SHORTENED |
| Mob | 45-1 | 45-1 | |
| Strategic Risk | 95-1 | 50-1 | SHORTENED |
| Curtain Call | 50-1 | 50-1 | |
| Big Dom | 50-1 | 50-1 | |
| Liberty National | 55-1 | 55-1 | |
| Desert Gate | 55-1 | 55-1 | |
| Intrepido | 55-1 | 55-1 | |
| Soldier N Diplomat | 55-1 | 55-1 | |
| Igniter | 55-1 | 55-1 | |
| Criteria | 60-1 | 60-1 | |
| Romeo | 66-1 | 66-1 | |
| Buetane | 66-1 | 66-1 | |
| Satono Voyage | 66-1 | 66-1 | |
| Talkin | 66-1 | 66-1 | |
| Civil Liberty | 66-1 | 66-1 | |
| Stradale | 66-1 | 66-1 | |
| Cherokee Nation | 66-1 | 66-1 | |
| Universe | 40-1 | 75-1 | DRIFTED |
| Chambersville | 75-1 | 75-1 | |
| Boss Dylan | 75-1 | 75-1 | |
| Later Than Planned | 75-1 | 75-1 | |
| Ewing | 75-1 | 75-1 | |
| My World | 90-1 | 75-1 | SHORTENED |
| Intricate Spirit | 75-1 | 75-1 | |
| Stirring Words | 75-1 | 75-1 | |
| Time for Music | 75-1 | 75-1 | |
| The Big Con | 75-1 | 75-1 | |
| Bottas | 80-1 | 80-1 | |
| Greenwich Village | 80-1 | 80-1 | |
| White Tiger | 80-1 | 80-1 | |
| Smarty Hardy | 80-1 | 80-1 | |
| Attfield | 80-1 | 80-1 | |
| Obliteration | - | 85-1 | RETURNED |
| Chip Honcho | 85-1 | 85-1 | |
| Falcon Jet | 85-1 | 85-1 | |
| Infiltrate | 90-1 | 90-1 | |
| Street Beast | 90-1 | 90-1 | |
| Very Connected | 90-1 | 90-1 | |
| Class President | - | 90-1 | NEW |
| It's Our Time | 90-1 | 90-1 | |
| Proletariat | 90-1 | 90-1 | |
| Epic Desire | 90-1 | 90-1 | |
| Balboa | 28-1 | 90-1 | DRIFTED |
| Mesquite | 95-1 | 95-1 | |
| Arctic Beast | 100-1 | 100-1 | |
| Rancho Santa Fe | 80-1 | 100-1 | DRIFTED |
| Enforced Agenda | - | 100-1 | NEW |
| Hardtoblame | 100-1 | 100-1 | |
| Smoovin Saturday | 100-1 | 100-1 | |
| Into The Beast | 100-1 | 100-1 | |
| Crown the Buckeye | 100-1 | 100-1 | |
| Nearly | - | 100-1 | NEW |
| Oscar's Hope | - | 100-1 | NEW |
| Boca Beach Club | - | 100-1 | NEW |
| Confessional | 100-1 | 100-1 | |
| Express Kid | 95-1 | 110-1 | DRIFTED |
| Sleepingonfreedom | 95-1 | 110-1 | DRIFTED |
| Max Ciao | 125-1 | 125-1 | |
| No Joke Joe | - | 125-1 | NEW |
| Project Ace | 125-1 | 125-1 | |
| Cruise Home | 125-1 | 125-1 | |
| Mister Punch | 125-1 | 125-1 | |
| Schoolyardsuperman | 100-1 | 125-1 | DRIFTED |
| Liberty Valance | 125-1 | 125-1 | |
| Arabia Wild | 150-1 | 150-1 | |
| Classico | 150-1 | 150-1 | |
| Horse of the Sea | 150-1 | 150-1 | |
| Exonerate | 150-1 | 150-1 | |
| Baytown Dreamer | - | 150-1 | NEW |
| Versed | 150-1 | 150-1 | |
| Nine Ball | 150-1 | 150-1 | |
| Grittiness | 150-1 | 150-1 | |
| Stable Hero | 150-1 | 150-1 | |
| Start the Ride | 150-1 | 150-1 | |
| Longshoreman | 150-1 | 150-1 | |
| Herbs Bolt | 150-1 | 150-1 | |
| Won for Lou | 100-1 | 150-1 | DRIFTED |
| Spice Runner | 150-1 | 150-1 | |
| Quality Mischief | 125-1 | 175-1 | DRIFTED |
| Epic Summer | - | 175-1 | NEW |
| Pyromancer | 200-1 | 200-1 | |
| Dr. Kapur | 175-1 | 200-1 | DRIFTED |
| Cabourg | - | 200-1 | RETURNED |
| Gallivant | 200-1 | 200-1 | |
| Maximus Prime | 200-1 | 200-1 | |
| Vitruvian Man | 175-1 | 200-1 | DRIFTED |
| Tripp's Promise | - | 300-1 | NEW |
| Kid Charlemagne | 300-1 | 300-1 | |
| Big Apple Patrick | 150-1 | 300-1 | DRIFTED |
| AP Again | 300-1 | 300-1 |