Kentucky Derby 2026 futures: Market settles on Renegade
The last prep race on the road to Kentucky Derby 2026 was Saturday’s Lexington Stakes (G3) at Keeneland. None of the starters had accumulated enough qualifying points to make the May 2 starting gate, so the field is set, barring any late dropouts ahead of the April 25 post-position draw.
That leaves the futures market in settled territory. Arkansas Derby (G1) winner Renegade was the clear favorite Monday morning at 3-1 at Westgate and 7-2 at Caesars Sportsbook. Trained by Todd Pletcher, the son of Into Mischief was shortened at both books for the second consecutive week.
Into Mischief also sired the second choice. Florida Derby (G1) winner Commandment, trained by Brad Cox, was shortened from 7-1 to 4.75-1 at Caesars – the biggest move of the week among the top contenders. He is 6-1 at Westgate.
Cox leads all trainers with three qualified starters. Blue Grass (G1) winner Further Ado, a son of Gun Runner, was cut at both books to 5-1 at Westgate and 5.5-1 at Caesars. Cox’s Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) winner Fulleffort is 25-1 at Caesars and 30-1 at Westgate.
The Puma, the Florida Derby runner-up, was shortened from 12-1 to 10-1 at Caesars but drifted from 8-1 to 12-1 at Westgate. Chief Wallabee is 12-1 at both books. Silent Tactic, the Arkansas Derby runner-up, was 15-1 at Caesars and 25-1 at Westgate.
Incredibolt had the most notable consensus shortening of the week, cut from 22-1 to 18-1 at Caesars and from 40-1 to 30-1 at Westgate. He is trained by Riley Mott, who will bring two horses to Louisville for the first time. Wood Memorial (G2) winner Albus drew a split verdict: Westgate halved him from 60-1 to 30-1, and Caesars moved him out from 25-1 to 30-1.
Louisiana Derby (G2) winner Emerging Market, trained by Chad Brown, shortened from 18-1 to 15-1 at Caesars and is 16-1 at Westgate. Santa Anita Derby (G1) winner So Happy is available at 16-1 at Westgate and 25-1 at Caesars.
On the other side of the ledger, Nearly fell from 16-1 to 40-1 at Westgate and from 40-1 to 45-1 at Caesars. Chip Honcho drifted from 40-1 to 90-1 at Caesars and from 60-1 to 80-1 at Westgate.
The international contenders held steady. Danon Bourbon is 22-1 at Caesars and 25-1 at Westgate on the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby. UAE Derby (G2) winner Wonder Dean is 30-1 at Westgate and 33-1 at Caesars, and Six Speed is 65-1 at Caesars and 70-1 at Westgate on the Euro-Mideast Road.
Caesars trimmed its board from 36 to 25 horses, removing 13 names. Westgate held at 26.
The futures at Caesars Sportsbook, which also operates William Hill outlets in Nevada, and at Westgate are available in person or on an app. They also may be played from out of state through a licensed proxy.
| Horse | Caesars | Westgate |
|---|---|---|
| Renegade | 7-2 | 3-1 |
| Commandment | 19-4 | 6-1 |
| Further Ado | 11-2 | 5-1 |
| The Puma | 10-1 | 12-1 |
| Chief Wallabee | 12-1 | 12-1 |
| Emerging Market | 15-1 | 16-1 |
| Silent Tactic | 15-1 | 25-1 |
| So Happy | 25-1 | 16-1 |
| Incredibolt | 18-1 | 30-1 |
| Danon Bourbon | 22-1 | 25-1 |
| Golden Tempo | 22-1 | 50-1 |
| Fulleffort | 25-1 | 30-1 |
| Potente | 25-1 | 30-1 |
| Albus | 30-1 | 30-1 |
| Wonder Dean | 33-1 | 30-1 |
| Nearly | 45-1 | 40-1 |
| Pavlovian | 40-1 | 40-1 |
| Right To Party | 50-1 | 100-1 |
| Final Score | 50-1 | - |
| Leading Change | 50-1 | - |
| Six Speed | 65-1 | 70-1 |
| Chip Honcho | 90-1 | 80-1 |
| Iron Honor | 90-1 | 80-1 |
| Intrepido | 200-1 | 80-1 |
| Ottinho | - | 100-1 |
| Stark Contrast | - | 100-1 |
| Grittiness | 200-1 | 200-1 |
| Universe | - | 200-1 |
| SHORTENED vs. prior week DRIFTED vs. prior week | ||