Kentucky Derby 2026 futures: Litmus Test makes big move
Litmus Test made his stakes breakthrough Saturday, and so did his odds to win Kentucky Derby 2026.
The Bob Baffert-trained Nyquist colt won the Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity as the 3-5 favorite, leading home a 1-2-3 finish for the Hall of Fame trainer. Caesars Sportsbook in Nevada responded by cutting Litmus Test from 55-1 to 25-1, the biggest odds movement of the week.
Baffert stablemates Provenance and Blacksmith ran second and third in the Los Alamitos Futurity, which awarded 10 Kentucky Derby qualifying points to the winner. Litmus Test previously finished behind Ted Noffey in both the Breeders' Futurity (G1) and Breeders' Cup Juvenile. He now has 19 points on the Kentucky Derby leaderboard.
Ted Noffey held firm as the futures favorite at 7.5-1 Monday morning. The Todd Pletcher-trained Into Mischief colt won his fourth consecutive start in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Del Mar. Owned by Spendthrift Farm, Ted Noffey was a $650,000 yearling purchase and has earned more than $1.6 million.
Co-second choices at 11-1 were Further Ado and Paladin. Further Ado, a Gun Runner colt trained by Brad Cox, broke his maiden with a dominant 20-length victory going 1 1/16 miles at Keeneland in October. Paladin, trained by Chad Brown, won the Remsen Stakes (G2) at Aqueduct on Dec. 6 for his second victory in two starts, both over Todd Pletcher-trained Renegade.
Paladin is a $1.9 million son of Gun Runner whose dam, Secret Sigh, is a half-sister to dual Group 1 winner Mozu Ascot. The Remsen marked Paladin's first two-turn test, and he delivered convincingly for owners who include Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith and Peter Brant.
Provenance and Blacksmith both shortened after their Los Alamitos Futurity placings. Provenance, a colt out of two-time Eclipse Award champion Monomoy Girl, moved from 40-1 to 35-1. Blacksmith improved from 55-1 to 45-1. Baffert's fourth shortened horse was Buetane, who went from 75-1 to 66-1.
Boyd drifted from 20-1 to 25-1 despite the Baffert-trained colt's status among the Derby point leaders. Satono Voyage, a Japan contender trained by Hiroyasu Tanaka, went from 30-1 to 35-1.
Baffert has 10 horses on the futures board, including four in the top 25: Litmus Test, Boyd, Brant and Provenance. Steve Asmussen has 11, Cox has 10, Pletcher has seven, Kenny McPeek has six and Brown has five.
Gun Runner and Into Mischief remain the dominant sires in the market. Gun Runner has produced both Paladin and Further Ado among the co-second choices. Into Mischief sired Ted Noffey along with Renegade and Provenance.
Ten horses were added to the futures this week, including Greenwich Village for Brown at 66-1 and Acknowledgemeplz for Doug O'Neill at 250-1. Acknowledgemeplz was the 7-2 second choice in the Los Alamitos Futurity but lugged out early.
Five horses were removed from the futures: Obliteration, Comport, Ganaas, Password and Just Asap.
Caesars Sportsbook listed 95 horses for Kentucky Derby 2026 on Monday morning. The futures are available in Nevada either in person or on an app. They also may be played legally from out of state through a licensed proxy.
| Horse | Trainer | Current | Previous | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ted Noffey | Todd Pletcher | 7.5-1 | 7.5-1 | |
| Further Ado | Brad Cox | 11-1 | 11-1 | |
| Paladin | Chad Brown | 11-1 | 11-1 | |
| Incredibolt | Riley Mott | 20-1 | 20-1 | |
| Boyd | Bob Baffert | 25-1 | 20-1 | Drifted |
| Brant | Bob Baffert | 25-1 | 25-1 | |
| Litmus Test | Bob Baffert | 25-1 | 55-1 | Shortened |
| Mr. A.P. | Vladimir Cerin | 25-1 | 25-1 | |
| Balboa | Brittany Russell | 28-1 | 28-1 | |
| Napoleon Solo | Chad Summers | 28-1 | 28-1 | |
| Cannoneer | Steve Asmussen | 30-1 | 30-1 | |
| Courting | Todd Pletcher | 33-1 | 33-1 | |
| Englishman | Cherie DeVaux | 33-1 | 33-1 | |
| Final Score | Todd Pletcher | 33-1 | 33-1 | |
| Blackout Time | Kenny McPeek | 33-1 | 33-1 | |
| Provenance | Bob Baffert | 35-1 | 40-1 | Shortened |
| Leading Change | unnamed trainer | 35-1 | 35-1 | |
| Satono Voyage | Hiroyasu Tanaka | 35-1 | 30-1 | Drifted |
| Rebel Instinct | Chad Brown | 40-1 | 40-1 | |
| Universe | Kenny McPeek | 40-1 | 40-1 | |
| Renegade | Todd Pletcher | 40-1 | 40-1 | |
| Local Knowledge | Todd Pletcher | 40-1 | 40-1 | |
| Plutarch | Bob Baffert | 45-1 | 45-1 | |
| Blacksmith | Bob Baffert | 45-1 | 55-1 | Shortened |
| Romeo | Steve Asmussen | 50-1 | 50-1 | |
| Cherokee Nation | Bob Baffert | 50-1 | 50-1 | |
| Curtain Call | Mark Casse | 50-1 | 50-1 | |
| Civil Liberty | Doug O'Neill | 50-1 | 50-1 | |
| Big Dom | Tom Amoss | 55-1 | 55-1 | |
| Desert Gate | Bob Baffert | 55-1 | 55-1 | |
| Igniter | Richard Dutrow, Jr. | 55-1 | 55-1 | |
| Intrepido | Jeff Mullins | 55-1 | 55-1 | |
| Soldier N Diplomat | Steve Asmussen | 55-1 | 55-1 | |
| Mob | Brian Lynch | 55-1 | 45-1 | Drifted |
| Criteria | Chad Brown | 60-1 | 60-1 | |
| Stradale | Steve Asmussen | 66-1 | 66-1 | |
| Stop the Car | Brendan Walsh | 66-1 | 66-1 | |
| Buetane | Bob Baffert | 66-1 | 75-1 | Shortened |
| Boss Dylan | Brendan Walsh | 66-1 | 66-1 | |
| Smarty Hardy | Todd James Jordan | 66-1 | 66-1 | |
| Commandment | Brad Cox | 66-1 | 66-1 | |
| Greenwich Village | Chad Brown | 66-1 | -- | New |
| Talkin | Danny Gargan | 66-1 | 66-1 | |
| Liberty National | Kenny McPeek | 70-1 | 65-1 | Drifted |
| Stirring Words | Cherie DeVaux | 75-1 | 75-1 | |
| The Big Con | Miguel Clement | 75-1 | 75-1 | |
| Street Beast | Ben Colebrook | 75-1 | 75-1 | |
| Spice Runner | Steve Asmussen | 75-1 | 60-1 | Drifted |
| Intricate Spirit | Miguel Clement | 75-1 | 75-1 | |
| Time for Music | Steve Asmussen | 75-1 | 75-1 | |
| Ewing | Mark Casse | 75-1 | 60-1 | Drifted |
| Chambersville | Steve Asmussen | 75-1 | 66-1 | Drifted |
| Later Than Planned | Philip D'Amato | 75-1 | 75-1 | |
| Falcon Jet | Bob Baffert | 75-1 | 60-1 | Drifted |
| White Tiger | Cherie DeVaux | 80-1 | 80-1 | |
| Epic Desire | Todd Pletcher | 80-1 | 80-1 | |
| Rancho Santa Fe | Brad Cox | 80-1 | 80-1 | |
| Bottas | Miguel Clement | 80-1 | 80-1 | |
| Very Connected | Kenny McPeek | 80-1 | 80-1 | |
| Attfield | Thomas Morley | 80-1 | 80-1 | |
| Sleepingonfreedom | Kenny McPeek | 85-1 | 85-1 | |
| Tagermeen | Steve Asmussen | 85-1 | 75-1 | Drifted |
| It's Our Time | Tom Amoss | 90-1 | 90-1 | |
| Smoovin Saturday | Michael McCarthy | 90-1 | -- | New |
| Max Ciao | Steve Knapp | 90-1 | 90-1 | |
| My World | Brad Cox | 90-1 | 90-1 | |
| Hardtoblame | Brad Cox | 90-1 | -- | New |
| Proletariat | Jeff Mullins | 90-1 | 90-1 | |
| Schoolyardsuperman | Steve Asmussen | 90-1 | -- | New |
| Kid Charlemagne | Chad Brown | 90-1 | -- | New |
| Infiltrate | Brendan Walsh | 90-1 | 90-1 | |
| Mesquite | Cherie DeVaux | 95-1 | 95-1 | |
| Stable Hero | Randy Morse | 100-1 | 100-1 | |
| Into The Beast | Dale Romans | 100-1 | 100-1 | |
| Dr. Kapur | Saffie Joseph, Jr. | 100-1 | 100-1 | |
| Exonerate | Brad Cox | 100-1 | 100-1 | |
| Start the Ride | Brad Cox | 100-1 | -- | New |
| Longshoreman | Wesley Ward | 100-1 | 100-1 | |
| Classico | Steve Asmussen | 100-1 | -- | New |
| Confessional | Brad Cox | 100-1 | 100-1 | |
| Vitruvian Man | Doug O'Neill | 100-1 | 100-1 | |
| Won for Lou | Brad Cox | 100-1 | -- | New |
| Cruise Home | Dean Pederson | 125-1 | 125-1 | |
| Liberty Valance | Brendan Walsh | 125-1 | 110-1 | Drifted |
| Chip Honcho | Steve Asmussen | 125-1 | 125-1 | |
| Project Ace | Dale Romans | 125-1 | 125-1 | |
| Versed | Brad Cox | 150-1 | -- | New |
| Grittiness | Todd Pletcher | 150-1 | 150-1 | |
| Nine Ball | Riley Mott | 150-1 | 150-1 | |
| Gallivant | Ben Colebrook | 200-1 | 200-1 | |
| Maximus Prime | Anthony Mitchell | 200-1 | 200-1 | |
| AP Again | Doug O'Neill | 250-1 | 250-1 | |
| Acknowledgemeplz | Doug O'Neill | 250-1 | -- | New |
| Knick The Quick | Christopher Davis | 300-1 | 300-1 | |
| JJ Grey | Kenny McPeek | 300-1 | 300-1 | |
| Obliteration | Steve Asmussen | -- | 50-1 | Removed |
| Comport | Eddie Kenneally | -- | 50-1 | Removed |
| Ganaas | Andrew McKeever | -- | 90-1 | Removed |
| Password | Rodolphe Brisset | -- | 150-1 | Removed |
| Just Asap | Mark Casse | -- | 150-1 | Removed |