Kentucky Derby 2026 futures: 100-point winners shake board
Caesars Sportsbook in Nevada whittled its Kentucky Derby 2026 futures board from 135 horses to 54 this week, and the Westgate Superbook trimmed its list from 64 to 58, as the first two 100-point preps on the road to Kentucky Derby 2026 produced emphatic winners who shortened dramatically at both books.
Emerging Market won the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds on Saturday, and Fulleffort took the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) at Turfway Park. Each earned 100 qualifying points, virtually guaranteeing spots in the starting gate May 2 at Churchill Downs. Their arrivals in the upper tier of the futures board coincided with a surge in support for the overall favorite, Paladin, who shortened from 7-1 to 6-1 at Caesars. The Westgate had the unbeaten Gun Runner colt at 8-1.
Chief Wallabee, the Bill Mott–trained Constitution colt who finished second in the Fountain of Youth (G2), held the second choice at 7-1 at Caesars and 10-1 at the Westgate. Commandment, the Fountain of Youth winner, was at 10-1 and 12-1. Nearly, the Holy Bull (G3) winner for Todd Pletcher, showed at 11-1 and 12-1.
Trained by Chad Brown, Emerging Market made the biggest splash of the day. The Candy Ride colt, who broke his maiden in fast time at Tampa Bay Downs in February, went from the widest post in a nine-horse field to grind past Pavlovian in the final strides of the 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby. He was cut from 50-1 to 25-1 at Caesars, and Westgate was even more bullish at 12-1, making him the co-third choice alongside Commandment and Nearly.
Emerging Market became Brown’s third horse to qualify for the Derby on points, joining unbeaten Risen Star (G2) winner Paladin and Gotham (G3) winner Iron Honor. Brown is 9: 0-2-1 with his Derby starters, but his in-the-money finishes include a runner-up from Sierra Leone in 2024 and a third from Zandon in 2022. He has bypassed the Derby before with lightly raced colts who then won the Preakness with Cloud Computing in 2017 and Early Voting in 2022.
The Jeff Ruby Steaks provided the week’s most dramatic odds movement. Fulleffort, a Liam’s Map colt trained by Brad Cox, had finished second in both the Leonatus and John Battaglia Memorial at Turfway Park before finally breaking through as the favorite. He was slashed from 125-1 to 28-1 at Caesars and 20-1 at Westgate. Cox won the Jeff Ruby a year ago with Final Gambit, who finished fourth in Kentucky Derby 2025.
Stark Contrast, runner-up in the Jeff Ruby for Michael McCarthy, shortened from 95-1 to 65-1 at Caesars and was posted at 40-1 at Westgate. The Caravaggio colt, who was second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, earned 50 qualifying points.
Pavlovian, the Doug O’Neill–trained California-bred who shipped from the Sunland Park Derby to finish a game second in the Louisiana Derby, held firm at 50-1 at Caesars but was boosted to 20-1 at the Westgate Superbook. His 50 qualifying points from the runner-up effort gave him 70 for the season.
Talk to Me Jimmy was among the biggest movers on the board, shortening from 75-1 to 28-1 at Caesars. Great White went from 75-1 to 40-1, and Cherokee Nation continued to attract support, going from 22-1 to 15-1 at Caesars and 16-1 at Westgate.
Saturday’s races also produced drifters. Golden Tempo, the Cherie DeVaux–trained Curlin colt who won the Lecomte (G3) at Fair Grounds, finished third in the Louisiana Derby and drifted from 20-1 to 40-1 at Caesars, though the Westgate was shorter at 30-1. He earned 25 qualifying points, giving him 60 for the season, which is enough mathematically to put him in the Derby field. Chip Honcho faded to fifth and went from 35-1 to 28-1 at Caesars. The Westgate Superbook was far less enthused at 80-1.
Clinch scenarios: 14 look like they are in Kentucky Derby 2026
The 82 horses removed from the Caesars board included familiar names: Cannoneer (28-1), Englishman (50-1), Spartacus (75-1) and Project Ace (70-1).
The Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn and Florida Derby (G1) at Gulfstream Park on March 28, the Santa Anita Derby (G1) on March 29 and the Blue Grass (G1) and Wood Memorial (G2) on April 4 are the final stretch of 100-point qualifiers.
The Caesars Sportsbook and Westgate Superbook futures for Kentucky Derby 2026 are available in Nevada either in person or on an app. They also may be played legally from out of state using an existing account through a licensed proxy.
| Horse | Caesars | Westgate |
|---|---|---|
| Paladin | 6-1 | 8-1 |
| Chief Wallabee | 7-1 | 10-1 |
| Commandment | 10-1 | 12-1 |
| Nearly | 11-1 | 12-1 |
| Emerging Market | 25-1 | 12-1 |
| Silent Tactic | 15-1 | 16-1 |
| Cherokee Nation | 15-1 | 16-1 |
| Renegade | 15-1 | 18-1 |
| Class President | 18-1 | 20-1 |
| Fulleffort | 28-1 | 20-1 |
| Pavlovian | 50-1 | 20-1 |
| Incredibolt | 25-1 | 20-1 |
| Iron Honor | 22-1 | 40-1 |
| The Puma | 25-1 | 30-1 |
| Potente | 25-1 | 30-1 |
| Reagan's Honor | 25-1 | 40-1 |
| Further Ado | 28-1 | 25-1 |
| Talk to Me Jimmy | 28-1 | 60-1 |
| Chip Honcho | 28-1 | 80-1 |
| Canaletto | 30-1 | 60-1 |
| Napoleon Solo | 30-1 | 40-1 |
| Golden Tempo | 40-1 | 30-1 |
| Grittiness | 35-1 | 100-1 |
| Intrepido | 35-1 | 60-1 |
| Leading Change | 40-1 | - |
| Great White | 40-1 | 100-1 |
| Stark Contrast | 65-1 | 40-1 |
| Medici | - | 50-1 |
| Danon Bourbon | 60-1 | 50-1 |
| Boyd | 50-1 | 50-1 |
| Al Haram | 50-1 | 60-1 |
| Final Score | 50-1 | - |
| Blacksmith | 50-1 | 60-1 |
| Six Speed | 80-1 | 50-1 |
| Powershift | 50-1 | 100-1 |
| Brant | 60-1 | 50-1 |
| Blackout Time | 65-1 | 50-1 |
| Robusta | 55-1 | 100-1 |
| Litmus Test | 55-1 | 60-1 |
| Pyromancer | 65-1 | 60-1 |
| Civil Liberty | 60-1 | - |
| Soldier N Diplomat | 75-1 | 60-1 |
| Bravaro | 65-1 | 80-1 |
| So Happy | 66-1 | 80-1 |
| Buetane | 66-1 | 80-1 |
| Salloom | 75-1 | - |
| Courting | 75-1 | 100-1 |
| Crude Velocity | - | 80-1 |
| Liberty National | - | 80-1 |
| Confessional | - | 80-1 |
| Express Kid | 90-1 | 100-1 |
| Creole Chrome | 90-1 | - |
| My World | - | 100-1 |
| Secured Freedom | - | 100-1 |
| Stop the Car | - | 100-1 |
| Desert Gate | - | 100-1 |
| Universe | 100-1 | 100-1 |
| Lucky Kid | - | 100-1 |
| Greenwich Village | - | 100-1 |
| Satono Voyage | 125-1 | - |
| Brotherly Love | 125-1 | - |
| Redland Rebels | 175-1 | - |
| Bricklin | 175-1 | 200-1 |
| Exosome | 175-1 | - |
| Baytown Dreamer | - | 200-1 |
| Ottinho | - | 200-1 |
| Maximus Prime | - | 200-1 |
| Bold Green = Odds shortened from last week at that sportsbook Bold Red = Odds drifted from last week at that sportsbook |
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