Kentucky Derby 2026: Ranking the field 1st to last
There is usually a spirited debate leading up to the Kentucky Derby each year as to what the strongest prep was leading up to the marquee 3-year-old race.
This year there is simply no argument. The Grade 1 Florida Derby featured three runners who are all legitimate Kentucky Derby contenders, and none of them were even the favorite in the Florida Derby. That honor went to the romping Holy Bull (G3) winner, Nearly.
Analysis of the Kentucky Derby needs to start with the Florida Derby, but it does not have to end there. Though Renegade, Further Ado and Emerging Market might not have defeated much in their final preps, they were impressive enough to deserve consideration. Below I analyze all 20 runners in Kentucky Derby 2026, ranking them from first to last.
1st, Chief Wallabee (8-1). Bill Mott and Junior Alvarado will win the Kentucky Derby for the second year in a row. This colt tipped his hand as a star on day one. As good as Sovereignty, Cody's Wish and Elite Power were, none of them won on debut as Bill Mott does not crank his horses up first out. This colt did just that, leading the usually cautious Mott to place him in the Fountain of Youth (G2) in his second start. He had a wide trip while the more experienced Commandment skimmed the rail to a narrow victory. Considering the circumstances, I liked Chief Wallabee more going forward out of that race. Commandment and The Puma beat him on the square in the Florida Derby (G1), but as I watched the race I instantly felt that this colt was running green and needed blinkers. Sure enough, Mott adds blinkers for this race, which should focus him enough to put it all together. It is true that the addition of blinkers is rare and often unsuccessful in the Derby, but if anyone knows what they are doing it is Bill Mott. This colt's powerful work the other day is an indication that they will work. He has the perfect tracking style to get first run on the deep closers and offers a square price in a wide-open Kentucky Derby.
2nd, Renegade (4-1). The deserving Kentucky Derby favorite displayed an electrifying turn of foot in the Arkansas Derby (G1). Though it was not the fastest Derby prep, it was among the most visually impressive performances as he closed the final eighth in 11.84 seconds, which was the fastest finish in this field. He should adore the Kentucky Derby distance and should get just enough pace to make a sustained run. He continues to improve and is strictly the horse to beat. Irad Ortiz Jr. chooses to ride this colt over Commandment and Further Ado. The concern with any big closer in a 20-horse field is navigating traffic and though it will not be easy from the rail, he might be good enough to overcome the obstacles.
3rd, The Puma (10-1). There was only a nose separating The Puma and Commandment in the Florida Derby, and the less experienced runner at the higher price gets the narrow advantage between the two this time around. The son of Essential Quality has kept the best company of any runner in this crop. In just four starts he has held his own with Chief Wallabee, Renegade, Commandment and Further Ado. His Beyer Speed Figures in three route starts have gone from an 83 to a 94 to a 100. If there is still room for another 6-7 point move forward, he could give Gustavo Delgado his second Kentucky Derby triumph.
4th, Commandment (6-1). This son of Into Mischief has done nothing wrong in his young career and is coming off a win in what was undoubtedly the strongest Derby prep in the Florida Derby. He is more of a grinder than he is flashy, but he just keeps coming and will be right in the mix when the dust settles. His Florida Derby rivals, Chief Wallabee and The Puma, might have just enough upside to turn the tables on this colt, but it would be no surprise to see him victorious for a fifth consecutive race.
5th, Emerging Market (15-1). There is a chance that Chad Brown's son of Candy Ride could end up being the best horse in this crop, but that does not mean he will win on Saturday. He has history working against him as he tries to become the first horse since 1883 to win the Kentucky Derby in just his third start. Despite this, he should not be ignored. It is incredibly difficult to jump from a maiden debut win to a 1 3/16-mile stakes race, but he did just that when winning the Louisiana Derby despite Pavlovian drifting out for most of the stretch. Flavien Prat chose this colt over the proven Commandment, though that might be because of a desire for future Chad Brown business. This colt has a lot going against him, but also has a ton of talent.
6th, Danon Bourbon (20-1). The biggest wildcard of this year's Kentucky Derby is dangerous as it is unclear just how good he may be. The Kentucky-bred never has won by less than three lengths and has never raced at a distance shorter than 1 1/8 miles. He likely did not beat anyone of consequence in his final prep, but it should be noted that it was the fastest Fukuryu Stakes in the 27-year history of the race. He might just be good enough to make noise and is certainly worth considering at a big price.
7th, Incredibolt (20-1). Riley Mott's colt appears to be a prime candidate to outrun his odds. He has a nice style, appears to want the distance and already has two wins over the track. He beat up on a soft field in the Virginia Derby but came home in one of the fastest times of any Derby entrant. He takes a big step up in class but could get a piece at a nice price.
8th, Golden Tempo (30-1). This son of Curlin is a very intriguing price play for the bottom of exotic wagers. He flashed a furious late kick to win the Lecomte Stakes (G3) earlier this year and was gaining on the top two in the Louisiana Derby before Jose Ortiz decided to duck to the inside in a move that works exactly 0% of the time. He added blinkers for his last start and is one of the few horses who should truly appreciate the Derby distance. He is not fast enough to win, but he will be passing plenty of tired horses late.
9th, Further Ado (6-1). This is an awfully low ranking for a horse who absolutely has the talent to win this race. But every year at least one of the main contenders in the Derby seems to run off the board, and this colt is the most likely to do so this year. He was brilliant when earning a 106 Beyer Speed Figure from Daily Racing Form in the Blue Grass Stakes (G1), but he defeated absolutely nothing of note that day. His two romping wins both have come at Keeneland, and although his route form has been solid at other tracks, his efforts outside of Keeneland do not compare to the top flight of this crop. While most horses have shown a smooth progression, his jump from a 92 to a 106 Beyer Speed Figure makes him a bounce candidate. Irad Ortiz Jr. chose to ride Renegade over this colt, which will end up being the right decision, in my opinion.
10th, Potente (20-1). He might be slightly better with a target to run at and could get the better of So Happy in their third meeting. But the Bob Baffert trainee still would need to improve quite a bit to make serious noise in this race. The pricey colt came up empty in the lane of the Santa Anita Derby (G1) and will need to find much more late to grab a piece.
11th, Fulleffort (20-1). The third Brad Cox entrant is an intriguing long shot as he tries dirt for the first time. The problem is that post 20 will be tough to navigate and with his style, he will have to drop back early to avoid going wide. That will surely lead to a ton of dirt being kicked in his face, which is not ideal. He displayed a powerful closing kick in the Jeff Ruby (G3) and will need that same turn of foot and then some to be a factor in the Derby.
12th, So Happy (15-1). It would be wonderful to see Mark Glatt get his first career Kentucky Derby win after the difficult personal year that he has had to endure. Everyone will be rooting for him, but it is hard to imagine the son of Runhappy thriving at this distance. He certainly looked like a sprinter after his effort in the San Felipe Stakes (G2), but to his credit he was able to turn the tables on Potente in the Santa Anita Derby. This was not a vintage version of the Santa Anita Derby, and he sat a perfect trip that day. He likely will make a contending move at some point in the race but is unlikely to sustain it.
13th, Pavlovian (30-1). Doug O'Neill goes for his third Kentucky Derby winner with this runner who figures to press the early pace. His effort in the Louisiana Derby was good, but that was his 10th start and Emerging Market was making only his second start. He also floated Emerging Market out to the middle of the track throughout the stretch. If he could not beat that rival that day, it is hard to imagine him beating Emerging Market, as well as the other main contenders, on Saturday.
14th, Silent Tactic (20-1). Mark Casse's colt took the lead turning for home in the Arkansas Derby, but Renegade ran by this runner as if he was standing still. He did not beat much in his Southwest Stakes (G3) victory and does not seem to have progressed as much as many of his peers since that win in February.
15th, Wonder Dean (30-1). The Japanese import ran down Six Speed in the UAE Derby (G2), but his prior efforts may have exposed him a bit as being a cut below the main contenders. He was second in a pair of minor stakes in Japan and could manage only a fourth in the Saudi Derby. If a Japanese runner wins the Derby this year, it is much more likely to be Danon Bourbon.
16th, Albus (30-1). Even some Harry Potter magic would not be enough to help the Wood Memorial Stakes (G2) winner in this spot. He managed to get a lower Beyer Speed Figure in that win than he did when breaking his maiden at Tampa Bay Downs, which shows just how soft that Derby prep was. He could pass a few tired horses late, but anything more than that would be a major surprise.
17th, Six Speed (50-1). He might be the pacesetter of the Kentucky Derby but is unlikely to carry that speed far. He coughed up a clear lead in the UAE Derby to Wonder Dean. The waters get much deeper and the distance gets slightly longer, which does not bode well for his chances.
18th, Intrepido (50-1). This could be a useful colt down the road, but Jeff Mullins's colt does not look like the type of runner who will relish the added distance and is hard to trust after poor efforts in two of his last three starts.
19th, Litmus Test (30-1). Bob Baffert at 30-1 in the Kentucky Derby sounds tempting, but save your money if that is the angle you are banking on. This colt had inflated form as a 2-year-old and has regressed as a 3-year-old. He beat one horse home in the Arkansas Derby and is likely looking at a similar fate on Saturday.
20th, Right to Party (30-1). Kenny McPeek pulled off a mild Derby surprise two years ago with Mystik Dan, but this colt would be a shocker of different proportions. He was 38-1 in one of the worst editions of the Wood Memorial Stakes (G2) in quite some time and simply picked up the pieces in a race that fell apart to gain second. He will be far back early and would have to improve substantially just to reach the top half of the field.